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[h=1]Best Week 1 Eliminator picks[/h] [h=3]Projecting the safest selections for opening week and beyond[/h] Updated: September 2, 2014, 1:33 PM ET

By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire

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Drew Hallowell/Philadelphia Eagles/Getty ImagesNick Foles and Chip Kelly have their eyes set on a Week 1 win over Jacksonville.

Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our projective modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.

We'll provide three different versions of picks for you to choose from.

 

 

[h=4]Survival Guide[/h] Need help making your Eliminator selections? Check out Insider's latest tool right here.

Sign up for ESPN's Eliminator Challenge.

 

 

 

 

First, we will provide the win-maximizing pick of the week. This is based on the probability of a team winning combined with the percentage of the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge population selecting each game. To do this, we generate every possible combination of outcomes each week (65,000-plus) so you can maximize your potential gains. In addition, we will look forward to future matchups to let you know which teams to keep in reserve and highlight the team most likely to win by our projections.

Keep in mind that we are dealing in probability and that upsets will happen.

To help you visualize, below is our Eliminator Pool threat matrix, which shows you how all 32 teams project each week based on our model. It will be updated for this column each Tuesday as results come in over the course of the season.

Here's a helpful guide to navigate the information:

Green: Our equity-maximizing pick of the week

Red: Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player

Brown: Max method: This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season

 

 

 

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numberFire

 

 

 

[h=3]Beat the public[/h] In Week 1, the three most picked teams for the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge are the Philadelphia Eagles (46.7 percent), Chicago Bears (13.1 percent) and Pittsburgh Steelers (7.4 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week:

1. Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts (76.5 percent numberFire win probability, 79.2 percent Vegas win probability)

Population-adjusted win probability*: 76.1 percent

(*numberFire projected win probability adjusted for the percentage of people selecting this team in ESPN Eliminator Pools)

The Broncos were the most dominant team in the AFC in 2013 -- and arguably the NFL. After finishing with the best record in the AFC at 13-3, Denver met the only other team with a 13-3 record in the Super Bowl. While the Seattle Seahawks dominated the Broncos in the big game, Peyton Manning & Co. were still far and away the most efficient offense in the NFL. Manning led a passing offense that added 252 points above expectation after adjusting for strength of schedule. The next best passing offense was the Saints, which scored a full four points fewer per game through the air than Denver. The Colts, on the other hand, had the sixth-worst opponent-adjusted passing defense in the AFC last season. Expect a shootout and the Broncos to come out on top.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns (74.8 percent nF, 75.0 percent Vegas)

Population-adjusted win probability: 72.0 percent

The Steelers just barely missed out on a playoff spot in 2013 at 8-8 and are looking to bounce back in a new year. Ben Roethlisberger led a quietly efficient offense last season, which ranked No. 4 in the AFC in opponent-adjusted passing behind only the Broncos, New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers. This is less about the Steelers, though, and more about the Browns. Cleveland added Johnny Manziel in the draft, and Brian Hoyer has looked only slightly less disastrous in the preseason. The Browns ranked below average in every offensive and defensive efficiency category last season. At Heinz Field, Cleveland will be hard-pressed to find a win against its division rival.

3. Philadelphia Eagles over Jacksonville Jaguars (84.1 percent nF, 86.6 percent Vegas)

Population-adjusted win probability: 68.3 percent

Last year, most people got by in their survivor pools strictly picking against the Jaguars. Coming off his first NFL season -- a season in which he made the playoffs after the Eagles had finished 4-12 in 2012 -- Chip Kelly has made Nick Foles the leader of his up-tempo offense. Foles finished 2013 with an amazing 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Do not expect Foles to take as good care of the ball, but do expect similar touchdown production. The Eagles are an offensive force to be reckoned with, and they play the AFC's worst defense in the Jaguars, a team that allowed more than a touchdown per game above league-average in 2013.

 

 

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[h=3]Probable picks[/h]

 

Don't want to maximize your winnings? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 1:

1. Philadelphia Eagles over Jacksonville Jaguars (84.1 percent numberFire win probability, 86.6 percent Vegas win probability)

The population has things right, as this is by far the most likely outcome of any game this week. However, with almost half of all players in ESPN Eliminator Pools picking the Eagles, you will not do much to advance your standing by picking them.

2. Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts (76.5 percent nF, 79.2 percent Vegas)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns (74.8 percent nF, 75.0 percent Vegas)

 

 

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[h=3]Max method[/h]

 

Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future as you can pick each team only once. As of now, we project this to be the highest win probability of the season for both the Eagles and Steelers -- meaning it would be a great week to use either one of them. On the other hand, the Broncos hit a stride of easy games in the middle of the season playing at Oakland, at St. Louis, against Miami and against Buffalo in Weeks 10, 11, 12 and 14, respectively. Denver will likely be among the most probable winners throughout the 2014 season.

 

 

[ted sheckler]

Keep this up.

 

Chopped 2 years ago, and got 3rd last year and last the year before.

Usually just put out a schedule and circle the teams from week 1 and try not to stray, but always leave good teams (denver, new england) on the board assuming I'll make it to week 9. need to start playing them and going against teams that are going to be bad every week.

[Woodrow Wilson]

I wouldn't take Pitt this week.

[jam]

No mention of avoiding the most popular pick every week. It's almost more enjoyable rooting against teams in Survivor.

[Cee]

taking the shit skins with no QB week 2 seems scary to me. Not lock city like this article says

[Sharp Square]

 

Great read ! I have never won one of these and have played in more then a few so i needed all the help i can get

[Guest boatboatboat]

very welcome S Sq

[theguesser]

Jax Winning week 1 would thin out the herds in alot of survivor pools. :yay2

[Chickadee]

Thanks for sharing the article boat.