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Odd market movement in Chicago Houston highlights our ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Free Pick for September 11th. Fantastic to see one and all back here at HRWager. Astros are almost facing a double digit deficit in the AL West but are still in the mix for an AL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Cubs are on cruise control. They are now making the moves to rest players while trying to peak at the right time in the post season. Two stellar pitchers are on the mound, so why is the line moving against the Cubs for this ESPN broadcast tonight?

Chicago Houston : Arrieta Oddity

Momentum has been off and on for Jake Arrieta in his last there games. Look at his stats and ponder on this.

1. 8 Walks


2. 0.93 WHIP


3. 3.54 ERA

He has been bad by his standards at home which were his last two starts. Pirates he let in more runs than he allowed hits. Earlier in this window, he walked seven Brewers in the middle of August. He has lost traction in the CY Young race by these starts. While he gets a lot of benefit of the doubt, the oddsmakers did not really take this into account when they opened the Cubs ML at -168.

Down to -140 Cubs ML

Part of the reason for the dip is the odd production from Arrieta. The other is that the Astros are playing for their lives and have Fiers on the mound. His WHIP in his last three is at 1.59 but ERA is lower than Arrieta’s in that stretch. This knack of getting out of jams continues for the Astros. Combine that with the stated tone of urgency in the locker room knowing that they have to continue to win has caused the over night sharps to buy heavy into the Astros tonight.

HRWager’s Free Pick of the Day for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is the Astros ML. Hop on board this profit train as the sharps logic is sound on this one. Good fortune in this 8PM start and we shall see you next time here at HRWager.

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