Flying Dutchman

Yup, bet the entire BR on the first game of the season. If you win, stop as a winner for the season. Lose, well...you were going to lose it anyway.

Yup, yup, and yup...:D

JJ is a media personality. I rank some of his videos as some of the funniest I've ever seen, and he has posted some absolute classic posts. I think of him as a sort of Raunchy Robin Williams of our industry.

I'm of the opinion that you will get some unwanted scrutiny... ...like DOJ scrutiny. Right now, you haven't yet gotten the attention of some DOJ lawyer who wants to make a career out of you because you are small fish. But they are working their way down the food chain. They will get to you eventually, and you are leaving all sorts of tracks here. Also, you create all sorts of conflict. Yeah, conflict can attract eyeballs but it can also crash a forum. EOG is now in a purgatory of chaos at least partially as a result of inter-poster betting.

I see he is back at SBR. I'd guess that it was a paycheck thing? He wasn't really pissed off with SBR Jonny was he?

Another idea. Buying a condo/Hotel unit. The prices have now gone up, but are still a good buy considering the relative scarcity of these properties and where Vegas is heading. The studios in the Trump are still the best bang for buck and return about 5% when you are not in Vegas. INCREDIBLE views of the strip on the south side of the tower. You can even get mortgage money on them now. Yes, it requires a bit of cash up front, but it can be seen as a hedge against a blown out season. Your idea is good, and I checked it out. Another choice is renting a room thru Craig's list, those can be had for as little as $200-300/mo.

Wow, if you know the guy is an attention whore, why do you guys keep giving him attention? OK, maybe I'm doing it too. This is my last post on him, BTW. I tried to defend him in another thread, but it is wasted space.

OK, Lets get real... 99%+ of the punters, certainly on this site are NOT pros. You/they may think you are, but from reasoning I'm seeing here, you're not. Now, this is not a criticism, you need to know who you are. This means you are NOT going to get rich of this stuff. Most of the so-called pros don't get rich off this stuff, but make a reasonable or increasingly now, a not so reasonable living. BUT! you can have fun with it. Enjoy your betting like you enjoy a good vacation. And, like you are on vacation, you want to make your money stretch for the entire vacation (or season like in sports) so you can have some money to wager on the Super Bowl or college bowls at season's end without tapping the kid's college money. If you burn up your bankroll by mid-season, you'll have a short, sad vacation. BR management is exactly like managing your money on vacation. Thats where systems like the Century system comes from. It lets you enjoy your entire vacation, or season. And, even if you are a pro, Kelly Betting can be death-on-a-stick. You absolutely MUST know your win %, and even most pros do not. And unless you are extremely good at math, and can use either excel well or can program, STAY THE FVCK AWAY FROM KELLY. Even when you think you know your win%, it is very easy to go wrong. Sports change, the sports market changes, coaches change, training methods change, and the sports market is increasing getting sharper. Betting $20 or $5 a game can make it fun & interesting, so why not? Is someone grading your bets? "Dude, you're not betting $1000 a game so you're a wuss"? Get over it. AND, if you are good, you'll slowly increase your BR and be able to sleep nights.

dude, that $1000 bet at kelly fraction can turn into $6000 (avg) if you are hitting 60%

Ever since I was a young boy, I've played the silver ball. From Soho down to Brighton I must have played them all. But I ain't seen nothing like him In any amusement hall... That deaf dumb and blind kid Sure plays a mean pin ball ! He stands like a statue, Becomes part of the machine. Feeling all the bumpers Always playing clean. He plays by intuition, The digit counters fall. That deaf dumb and blind kid Sure plays a mean pin ball ! He's a pin ball wizard There has got to be a twist. A pin ball wizard, S'got such a supple wrist. 'How do you think he does it? I don't know! What makes him so good?' He ain't got no distractions Can't hear those buzzers and bells, Don't see lights a flashin' Plays by sense of smell. Always has a replay, 'n' never tilts at all... That deaf dumb and blind kid Sure plays a mean pin ball. I thought I was The Bally table king. But I just handed My pin ball crown to him. Even on my favorite table He can beat my best. His disciples lead him in And he just does the rest. He's got crazy flipper fingers Never seen him fall... That deaf dumb and blind kind Sure plays a mean pin ball.!!!!!

Props, are you using Pythag on each game or season total? There is a fair amount of evidence that Pythag on each game is better. Also, as you go back in the years, you'll see the pythag football "factor" vary year-to-year. It might be interesting to use the pythag "factor" variation from each year as possible variation for this year. 2.37 is the typical factor published for the NFL.

Well, actually I won't, certainly not in an open forum. Don't mean to be an ass, but we use it to gain an edge. I used to be pretty free with info when I was posting over at tech area at SBR, but learned better since. This market hoovers up everything... BTW, the Quantum Mechanical boyz say time is a mass illusion...think about it. Causality is a casualty.

OK, I guess I'm not surprised. I know KR to be a very fair guy, and to be frank I've not been around the last few years to judge it myself. Posters typically can't change. But, I'm a freest of the free speechers out there, and I always want to give folks a second chance. Anyway, I just got a e-mail on some of the stuff going on and I can now see the point.

Shari, these guys are animals... How's the gulag at SBR?

Many of the books used to have 3 teamers as the best payouts and I think they generally still do...I'm not in town yet, but I'll check them out so I don't know current Vegas parlays. The Stations once had 3s as true odds and then got the shit kicked out of them by more than one syndicate. The next year, all the goodies went away, but it took them all season to figger it out. In Australia the books have true odds, and it is candy land. Here in the US, we typically pick on 3s. But I personally have gone up to 12 team tickets and just missed a $1/2 million payout by one team (it was a one time promotional). *sigh*

My girl Shari! I was going to call you in OZ, but I lost your number...

The original Kelly Criterion was set up as a math proof. It was not intended as a simul. bet criterion. Other folks extended it to multiple bets and then calced it to "infinity" i.e. large number of bets at the same time. "They" calced it to 38%. I've found it to be higher in simulation. Frankly, I do believe 38% of your bankroll out at any single interval of time is good enough given that the universe seems to "believe" that events happening at the same time are not independent. I have a few ideas of what might cause this lack of independence, but is is not due to UFOs as Teddy KGB seems to think about human creation stated over at EOG.

Yassuh boss...shaking it heah boss...

KR... ...I think you should think this over. Let these guys in but on a short leash. Then you can honestly say you gave them one more chance. ...show them you're bigger than this petty BS... ...and then when they fvck up, as they (almost) always do, you lock them out in clear conscience. "with great power comes great responsibility" - Stan Lee as Uncle Ben in Spiderman

Full Kelly is great on single independent events as in card games where you can calc exact odds. Simul Kelly in sports events has issues as you cannot achieve true independence. Single sports events (differing days, etc) seems to be OK. But for Simul events, black swans happen too often i.e. those distribution tails are too fat to be Gaussian. So many who do use Kelly usually usually move to 1/2 Kelly at most, usually 1/4 Kelly after a few swan events show up fvcking their BRs. If you don't have the math, or are a dumb fvck like many of the posters pissing on each other over at EOG, use the Century method, i.e. 1/100 of your bankroll on each event, with no more of your BR out than 38%, or the Log limit of Kelly. But even this is for the smarter folks. If truly know yourself to be a bonehead in sports forecasting, use 1/200 per bet and make it last all season so you're not blown out midway. AND DON'T MESS WITH YOUR KID'S COLLEGE MONEY or anything that impacts your family.

How do we when if KR is shitting us? ...is his lips moving?