Flying Dutchman

 

What's the percentage of guys who start out thinking they'll keep to a certain BR plan, and then actually keep to it? I'd say <1%. It doesn't do most people any good to think in terms of BR if, after a bad weekend, they try to get even on MNF. And that's by far how most people approach it. And of course, if you're a losing player, the only real question is, do you want to lose slowly or quickly? And who's to say losing slowly is better?

Yup, bet the entire BR on the first game of the season. If you win, stop as a winner for the season. Lose, well...you were going to lose it anyway.

why would wvu moderate the forum? the guy wasnt seen for the last 6 months in the last one, so dont need him lurking around.

 

also flyingdipshit the biggest broke dick around is a joke...you still driving around in your rusted out 1980's bmw and living in your moms basement you half breed?

Yup, yup, and yup...:D

Took the words right outta my mouth bricker' date=' the best part is that there's absolutely nothing illegal about it lol[/quote']

 

Interstate betting? What state are you in? What state is your bet buddy in? Do you realized interstate *anything* get the Feds involved? Do you know this administration is cracking down on all sorts of shit, even if it is legal in that state? Do you even know the laws in your own state?

 

Actually, I'm really talking to the owners of this forum, as they can bear some considerable liability, and certainly have deeper pockets than you broke-dicks.

JJ is a media personality. I rank some of his videos as some of the funniest I've ever seen, and he has posted some absolute classic posts.

I think of him as a sort of Raunchy Robin Williams of our industry.

I'm of the opinion that you will get some unwanted scrutiny...

...like DOJ scrutiny. Right now, you haven't yet gotten the attention of some DOJ lawyer who wants to make a career out of you because you are small fish. But they are working their way down the food chain. They will get to you eventually, and you are leaving all sorts of tracks here.

Also, you create all sorts of conflict. Yeah, conflict can attract eyeballs but it can also crash a forum.

EOG is now in a purgatory of chaos at least partially as a result of inter-poster betting.

I see he is back at SBR. I'd guess that it was a paycheck thing? He wasn't really pissed off with SBR Jonny was he?

Dutch' date=' since the short inception of this forum, you and POKERJOE have been spot on with your Vegas assumptions.............maybe one day will disagree with one of you.[/quote']

 

Well, you and Poker have been two of the sharpest posters I've known for over 15 years. I was at MajorWager in another incarnation. Count Zero was another good friend of mine, but he has since vanished. The death of his wife really hit him hard.

 

 

Stay there? People STAY there? Non-hooker people?

 

I used to stay at the Orleans a lot, or South Point, but never WWW. But I drive a car, not an 18-wheeler.

 

BTW, my last hotel bill at South Point was $2700 (17 days, including a few convention weekends), so last month I finally got an apartment up here (after more than a decade of almost commuting up from Carlsbad). Apartments here are freaking cheap as hell. Even if I don't use it much (I was only here 7 days of the last 30), it's still cheaper than a hotel. And now I have a kitchen, I have my stuff waiting for me, I don't have to pack so much as a toothbrush. I'm almost a local!

Another idea. Buying a condo/Hotel unit. The prices have now gone up, but are still a good buy considering the relative scarcity of these properties and where Vegas is heading. The studios in the Trump are still the best bang for buck and return about 5% when you are not in Vegas. INCREDIBLE views of the strip on the south side of the tower. You can even get mortgage money on them now. Yes, it requires a bit of cash up front, but it can be seen as a hedge against a blown out season.

Your idea is good, and I checked it out. Another choice is renting a room thru Craig's list, those can be had for as little as $200-300/mo.

Wow, if you know the guy is an attention whore, why do you guys keep giving him attention?

OK, maybe I'm doing it too. This is my last post on him, BTW. I tried to defend him in another thread, but it is wasted space.

OK, Lets get real...

99%+ of the punters, certainly on this site are NOT pros. You/they may think you are, but from reasoning I'm seeing here, you're not.

Now, this is not a criticism, you need to know who you are.

This means you are NOT going to get rich of this stuff. Most of the so-called pros don't get rich off this stuff, but make a reasonable or increasingly now, a not so reasonable living. BUT! you can have fun with it. Enjoy your betting like you enjoy a good vacation. And, like you are on vacation, you want to make your money stretch for the entire vacation (or season like in sports) so you can have some money to wager on the Super Bowl or college bowls at season's end without tapping the kid's college money.

If you burn up your bankroll by mid-season, you'll have a short, sad vacation. BR management is exactly like managing your money on vacation.

Thats where systems like the Century system comes from. It lets you enjoy your entire vacation, or season.

And, even if you are a pro, Kelly Betting can be death-on-a-stick. You absolutely MUST know your win %, and even most pros do not. And unless you are extremely good at math, and can use either excel well or can program, STAY THE FVCK AWAY FROM KELLY. Even when you think you know your win%, it is very easy to go wrong. Sports change, the sports market changes, coaches change, training methods change, and the sports market is increasing getting sharper.

Betting $20 or $5 a game can make it fun & interesting, so why not? Is someone grading your bets? "Dude, you're not betting $1000 a game so you're a wuss"?

Get over it. AND, if you are good, you'll slowly increase your BR and be able to sleep nights.

 

How much money are you really going to put down on a future bet?

 

Maybe a thousand dollars at most? Whats the interest on a thousand dollars after four months? 3 dollars? :smiley-laughing001:

 

I have never put more than $100 down on a future. So for me, Im losing out on 30 cents. :smileys-wink-367638

dude, that $1000 bet at kelly fraction can turn into $6000 (avg) if you are hitting 60%

Someone please post if you come across a contest that uses sides AND totals' date=' for either NFL or CFB. I can't do the LVH contest because I can't come up with 5 sides picks every week, I'd be stale-lining half my picks.[/quote']

 

neither can 98% of the other posters...you'll be in good company

Props, are you using Pythag on each game or season total? There is a fair amount of evidence that Pythag on each game is better. Also, as you go back in the years, you'll see the pythag football "factor" vary year-to-year. It might be interesting to use the pythag "factor" variation from each year as possible variation for this year. 2.37 is the typical factor published for the NFL.

 

Gotcha. Thanks for getting back to me. If you are so inclined, would enjoy hearing you expound on your ideas about the lack of independence.

 

Time is natures way of keeping everything from happening at once.

Well, actually I won't, certainly not in an open forum. Don't mean to be an ass, but we use it to gain an edge.

I used to be pretty free with info when I was posting over at tech area at SBR, but learned better since. This market hoovers up everything...

BTW, the Quantum Mechanical boyz say time is a mass illusion...think about it. Causality is a casualty.

Dutch kr did think it over. Cubs has done the same thing ay every site he has been at for the first time kinger niw has FULL control to do what is in the best LONG term best for a forum. if it cost the site some page views so be it. bigger isnt always better and fron time to time the herd NEEDS to be culled. kinger is the best and all of TGF is united on this.

OK, I guess I'm not surprised. I know KR to be a very fair guy, and to be frank I've not been around the last few years to judge it myself.

Posters typically can't change. But, I'm a freest of the free speechers out there, and I always want to give folks a second chance. Anyway, I just got a e-mail on some of the stuff going on and I can now see the point.

Shari, these guys are animals...

How's the gulag at SBR?

F.Dutch , Is the ROI greater on 3 leg parlays than 2 or 4 - generally speaking

 

Thanks

Many of the books used to have 3 teamers as the best payouts and I think they generally still do...I'm not in town yet, but I'll check them out so I don't know current Vegas parlays. The Stations once had 3s as true odds and then got the shit kicked out of them by more than one syndicate. The next year, all the goodies went away, but it took them all season to figger it out. In Australia the books have true odds, and it is candy land. Here in the US, we typically pick on 3s. But I personally have gone up to 12 team tickets and just missed a $1/2 million payout by one team (it was a one time promotional). *sigh*

My girl Shari! I was going to call you in OZ, but I lost your number...

The only thing the sheep do is keep the Vegas doors open. Well for those sportsbooks that aren't just novelties anyways. Not with a -4.55% expectation' date=' but a -30% expectation with parlays. IMO the sheep have little to do with the market on any given game, with few exceptions. [/quote']

 

-30%??? not so, I play parlays. It is part of one's basic betting tool box. If you can hit ~56%+ depending on payouts, parlays must be part of your arsenal, but it can really be feast or famine so allow only a small % of BR.

 

BTW, syndicates go after parlays...

 

Why is 38% the chosen figure?

 

Thank you.

The original Kelly Criterion was set up as a math proof. It was not intended as a simul. bet criterion. Other folks extended it to multiple bets and then calced it to "infinity" i.e. large number of bets at the same time. "They" calced it to 38%. I've found it to be higher in simulation. Frankly, I do believe 38% of your bankroll out at any single interval of time is good enough given that the universe seems to "believe" that events happening at the same time are not independent. I have a few ideas of what might cause this lack of independence, but is is not due to UFOs as Teddy KGB seems to think about human creation stated over at EOG.

 

 

 

 

Why are you 2 talking shit in this thread ??

 

If you dont like the discussion stay the fuck out

Yassuh boss...shaking it heah boss...

KR...

...I think you should think this over.

Let these guys in but on a short leash. Then you can honestly say you gave them one more chance.

...show them you're bigger than this petty BS...

...and then when they fvck up, as they (almost) always do, you lock them out in clear conscience.

"with great power comes great responsibility" - Stan Lee as Uncle Ben in Spiderman

Full Kelly is great on single independent events as in card games where you can calc exact odds. Simul Kelly in sports events has issues as you cannot achieve true independence. Single sports events (differing days, etc) seems to be OK. But for Simul events, black swans happen too often i.e. those distribution tails are too fat to be Gaussian. So many who do use Kelly usually usually move to 1/2 Kelly at most, usually 1/4 Kelly after a few swan events show up fvcking their BRs.

If you don't have the math, or are a dumb fvck like many of the posters pissing on each other over at EOG, use the Century method, i.e. 1/100 of your bankroll on each event, with no more of your BR out than 38%, or the Log limit of Kelly.

But even this is for the smarter folks. If truly know yourself to be a bonehead in sports forecasting, use 1/200 per bet and make it last all season so you're not blown out midway. AND DON'T MESS WITH YOUR KID'S COLLEGE MONEY or anything that impacts your family.

All politicians are corrupt. It comes with the territory-- kinda like a head moderator. :

How do we when if KR is shitting us?

...is his lips moving?