GameBred

I just want to know what Noah said' date=' that Lebron felt the need to say "I'm a father of 3"[/quote']

 

He called him a "Bitch."

 

shhhh

Thanks to you, I think I coined a new term :) Can't wait to use it again so don't take too long a sabbatical between rabble-rousing, please.

Just let me know if I ever use it innappriately as tonality does not translate via text.

 

If this is the case why do lines move?

WVU is "Urkeling."

Thanks for the heads up.

Great news and congratulations to you and your wife

Babies bring luck.

I don't think it exists either R-PPH. Thanks.

 

Currently we offer Person2Person only, once we build a relationship we can talk about other options.

I am looking to find an odds screen that shows various PPH action throughout the week. Are you saying these are possibly available when you sign up for a PPH?

Thank you.

Is there an odds screen for various PPH's or do most prefer to be off sceen?

I sent an email to KR. Whenever it's convenient for him' date=' he can email those who ask for my suggestion. My instructions were for non-pro horse players. [/quote']

 

Thank you.

The thing about Modeling is that it's just as much art as it is science. Sports change over time' date=' the gambling markets change over night (due to legal issues). I've made a number of models over the years that properly back tested (most people do not properly back test) show a profit, that going forward don't win. I don't know anyone that does this though that isn't constantly looking to improve their models.[/quote']

 

Can you please share your definition of "properly back tested" and the common mistakes people use when back testing as the subject interests me greatly.

 

Thank you.

 

 

Thanks GameBred. So an Average Capper has a 1 in 300 chance of winning. Since this is a one-participant monthly contest, a winner will occur once in every 25 years!!!

You're welcome.

LOL... a winner once every 25 years; like the thought process. I think of it as if we had 300 fifty-percent cappers do this in a month, only 1 would be expected to hit 64 picks. Not sure how that seems to me, I guess that sounds about right.

 

When I did it for the first time, I just calculated it using fractions. I looked at it as "216 separate trials" each covering one of the possible combinations, so I didn't have any rounding. And then just added the possibilities together (ie 1 trial of +5, 125 trials of -1, etc.).

I started out with the "216 separate trials" approach and got off to a flying start when I did 1/216 * 5 = $2.31 (payoff for all 3 #'s coming up) then got caught up when trying to complete the rest. Adding the other possibilities together just didn't come easy for me.

That was fun as I love exercising the brain so if you have anymore, send them our way please.

 

Great question. Interesting caveat with the "no public news" from open to close and I am assuming no market manipulation is taking place so I will go with:

 

I'd take the free point off the close and as for my rankings, they would be from the bottom to the top of your list.... meaning I would rank the close as the having the lowest prediction error, then the # 30 minutes before the game, etc.. down to the raw opener having the largest prediction error. This is probably the cliche answer but it is the best I can do :)

 

As for the change in rankings, perhaps I would make some adjustments for all three scenario's by not exactly sure how I would rearrange the rankings; sorry for the non-committal response.

PJ,

I was looking forward to your comment on this post. Agree? Disagree?

Evade,

I did that originally with Excel (Number, general) and still came up with those figures, which I guess is good because:

34.72 + 20.83 + 2.31 = 57.86 (2W2P@S's #).

Thanks. No more rounding off :)

So what are the odds of an Average Capper (50% winners) getting 64 or more?

~ 0.33%

Also' date=' what are the odds of a Good Capper (55% winners) hitting 64 or more?[/quote']

 

~ 4.3%

 

GB' date=' stop rounding off. Just plug the above arithmetic expressions in a spreadsheet and see for yourself. The numeric values differ(slightly) from the ones you have got.[/quote']

 

Thank you Evade.

 

Plugged this into excel for the 1 match:

 

=3*(5/6)^2*(1/6) and came up with 34.72

 

Plugged this into excel for the 2 matches:

 

=3*(5/6)*(1/6)^2*3 and came up with 20.83

 

Plugged this into excel for the 3 matches:

 

=(1/6)^3*5 and came up with 2.31

 

Much closer but still not an exact match. Hmmm….

 

 

 

Gamebred' date=' 10+ years ago it was probably tops on my recommended list of sportsbetting books and still comes recommended ..........with the internet, much in the book as become obsolete, book the book is still a staple on my bookshelf.......the book was co-authored by Mike Rhoden, who stepped down as manager of the Alladdin a month or so before I started work there in 1988.[/quote']

 

Appreciate the review. Thank you.

And while we're on the topic of math...here is a quick quiz for the board...

 

A casino offers up a new game, a dice game. It's played using three completely fair 6-sided dice, meaning there's a 1/6 chance that each face, on each die, shows up.

 

The dealer tells you that you can bet on any one number from 1 to 6. You'll then roll the three dice. If none of the dice show the number that you bet on, you'll lose $1. If one shows the number you bet on, you'll win $1. If two of the dice show the number you bet on, you'll win $3. And if your number comes up on all three dice, you win $5.

 

Who has the edge in this game, the player or the house?

I’d like to solve the already solved puzzle.

No Matches

(5/6)^3 = 57.87 * -$1 = -57.87

1 Match

3 rolls * (5.6)^2 * (1/6) = 34.77 * $1 = 34.77

2 Matches

3 rolls * (5/6) * (1/6)^2 = .0692 * $3 = 20.76

3 Matches

(1/6)^3 = .0046 * $5 = 2.30

Had 2W2P2S not provided the answers, I would not have known how many decimal places to go and I am still not positive. For instance, I would have came up with 2.50 (not 2.30) for the 3 matches in 3 rolls as I would have rounded .0046 to .005. Is it a mistake to ever round up in these situations? How do we know how many decimal places we need to go?

Also, any reason why my numbers were slightly off from 2W2P2S’s, especially in the 2 matches scenario? My math was 3 * .8333 * .0277 * $3 = 20.77 (not 20.82).

Any feedback would be appreciated. Thank you.

FH,

Have you read "Sportsbook Management" by Roxy Roxborough and if so, can you please share your thoughts?

Thank you.

Don't play poker but they changed their software a bit so that may be why and their live betting is worse off for it, IMO.

Which has more value, a free point off the opener or a free point off the close?

 

Rank these numbers in order of RMSE from the final score, for a game in which there has been no public news from open to close:

raw opener (basically, the initial overnight line),

smoothed out but still pre-broad market opener (say, by 7 am),

the number just after the broader open (maybe 8:30am),

the number 30 minutes before the game starts,

the closing number.

 

Would your ranking change for big games, MNF and such?

Would it change if public faves have been really rolling lately?

Would it change for periodic events, like the World Cup?

Great question. Interesting caveat with the "no public news" from open to close and I am assuming no market manipulation is taking place so I will go with:

I'd take the free point off the close and as for my rankings, they would be from the bottom to the top of your list.... meaning I would rank the close as the having the lowest prediction error, then the # 30 minutes before the game, etc.. down to the raw opener having the largest prediction error. This is probably the cliche answer but it is the best I can do :)

As for the change in rankings, perhaps I would make some adjustments for all three scenario's by not exactly sure how I would rearrange the rankings; sorry for the non-committal response.

you guys don't know how a 1-10 rating works. You line up 9 other random girls next to her and you might find 1 that is more attractive. Those giving her less than an 8 don't know how to rate' date=' period. unless you mean she is a 6 out of 10 in a pool of decent looking women and not an average sample.[/quote']

 

Depends on a person's type. I call her a 6 but I can see why guys would rate her an 8. Anything over an 8 is pushing it... unless she is their type and then she is a possible 10.

Just a hint...It might also be easier for you to break it down into the 216 possible combinations and look at things that way.

I can use all the help I can get :)

Thank you.

 

 

Trick question.

 

For every 100 trials ~:

 

-$57.86

+$34.74

+$20.82

+$2.30

Impressed. Going to try to figure this out.., having the answers helps :)

It's hard to disagree with this post. But a lot of bettors have delusions of grandeur and dream of making it big. Only betting 1% of their bankroll is what seems tedious. They don't have the discipline' date=' so they go broke and start all over again.[/quote']

 

Yes. Most recreational bettors I know are under-capitalized and overestimate their edge; dangerous combination. 1% sounds boring but good trading is boring; in a sense. Furthermore, if you can’t make money off a small BR I doubt you will be able to make money off a large BR.

 

It boils down to ones risk profile and people have to decide what makes sense for them.

 

Going for broke is not the desired result, but it can happen if you get too loose. For me it would be frivolous to take 4 years off from gambling so that I could save a huge BR (100 thousand) that 1% would make any sense. That's why i take step outs and bet large for certain wagers. And you're right, some guys want to win a few thousand with a starting BR of only 1 thousand or even 500 at a time.

 

For me, I cap a game for 2-3 hours. No way in hell I'm putting 10 dollars on a game after putting in that work. I'd rather quit than bet 5 or 10 dollars a game.

 

Why would you need to take 4 years off? Why not slowly grow the roll and skill build over that time? It took me 5 years to create anything resembling a “respectable†roll and I routinely bet $5 to $10 a game when I first got serious about this; that is the discipline.

 

I think the 1% rule makes sense for rolls smaller than 100k but please keep in mind that when betting into -110 lines, you would need a $110,000 BR to risk $1,110 to win $1,000.

 

I am not saying that you shouldn’t take your shots to grow a smaller roll into a larger one; that is actually your optimum strategy. Just saying I think your typical exposure should be light. Just my opinion and every trader needs to ultimately answer this question for themselves.

 

Good luck.