pokerjoe

JJ's job is to be funny and keep a forum lively. He's good at that.

Making fun of guys like me? I understand. You're right to do so, as far as this contest is concerned, anyway. Last night I went to bet Houston. Lines, IRL, were -1', -2, -2', so -1' is good, -2 is fair, -2' is bad, from my POV, right? As always, there's no chance I'm getting a good line. In looking at >100 potential picks in this contest, it's never happened. As usual, I can't even get a fair line. Maybe 20% of the time I can find a fair line in this contest. This isn't one of them. And as too often happens, I can't even get the bad line because the contest line is -2' -115. It's shaded 5 cents worse than anything I can find on the screen. Pinny didn't have that number, no one did. This contest, as Ronald has pointed out, is lol for handicappers and heaven for line-value grinders who couldn't name a college QB. That's absolutely true. I stand laughed at, defenseless to the charge of handicapping. As to the LSU game: Kinger handled it right. Wasn't complicated.

If there's one group of people who should be allowed to smoke weed, it's prisoners. Weed is legal in Cali. Why not let them grow it and smoke it? It's not as if they won't know how. And if I'm a CO, I'd WANT my convicts high. It's win win win win. State gets profits from pot farms. Prisoners get a way to chill. Less violence inside because people are chilling and most violence stems from drug deals and debts anyway. And CO's have a safer gen pop to manage.

I'd make the line -7 +100. I didn't do a totals analysis because it's tedious and I don't want to do it if I don't have to. If anyone has any other injury impacts they'd like numbers on, post them here and I'll get to them late tonight when I get back from the B. Marshawn Lynch, if out, -1/2 point. Steve Smith -1 pt. FWIW, I like 262 u44'. Clausen is significantly slower than Cutler.

ok, I tht a line was way off, but it just changed while my screen was stale. Look, it's a great contest, no doubt. But it's just hard to believe these lines aren't shaded when I can't find, of 20 or so games I like at consensus lines, almost any fair lines. Okay, seriously, I won't raise the issue again. I just honestly don't want to do anything more with this contest than pullup the screen on Fridays, find 7 fair lines in about 7 minutes, click some buttons and forget about it. I don't have time to keep coming back and checking the screen here. Instead this contest has become a time consuming THING, lol. Good luck everyone.

Pinny has 173 Haw/Boise at 55. There are 56s around (I'm headed to Caesars now to get down, under obv). Contest line is 53.5

Kinger ... EVERY MOFO GAME is 5 to 10 cents or 1/2 point worse than the real lines. I come into this weekend with about 20 games I'm looking at and can't find 7 fair lines here. Lines should be set to break even with sharps and earn off squares, not the other way around, cause sharps won't bet into bad lines. Why not just use the market consensus instead of the heavy shading going on here?

Go here for some stats http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-points-per-drive-statistics/2015/ It's a starting place. Kind of a weak one, but no one with better stuff is going to go public. It's something to work with, anyway. Bear in mind that this guy's stats aren't SOS adjusted, which greatly weakens their usefulness. Also they aren't (I don't think, anyway) adjusted for initial field position. This early in the season especially, recovering a fumble on an opponent's one yard line and then scoring, warps your points per drive rate, and the reverse of that also unfairly impacts stats, so some important adjustments have to be made. And actual points per drive isn't the best way to go. Expected yards per play, expected average field position, expected plays per minute roughly calcs (adjusted for opp def strength) into expected points per drive, with drives per game varying depending upon the opponent's offensive pace (each team's pace impacts the other team's expected number of drives), all wrap up into the equation, along with some other shit I'm not even going to talk about. So then fig Big Ben's absence impact on ypp and ppm and even opp expected field pos. I think it's possible to gut-cap your way through sides picks. I don't think you can often do that with totals. Totals is math.

That totals adjustment might seem low, but here's the thing: Injury impacts on totals aren't as straightforward as they are for sides. It's all about points per drive and minutes per drive adjustments. Pitt will suffer in the first category but increase in the second. But I don't want to give out exact formulas, so ...

I made the impact -4 points there, too, and it adjusted my total estimate from 47' to 43', so no bet arises.

Actually, considering the game's low total, maybe he's making the impact 5 pts. But I'm not look at push charts, so ... anyway, you get the idea.

Jason Simbal of CG made it a swing of 6 pts, but over pick'em, so essentiall 5 pts, and two of those pts swung over were the 1, so, essentially, 4' pts. I made the Big Ben impact at -4 pts. Kenny White of Linesmakers made it 3' pts. But John Lester of CRIS made it 7 pts. Two things about CRIS's outlier estimate. Maybe he, also, is going by pointspread (push frequency) adjustment, not generic point values, and also maybe he's anticipating what the public will bet. And I'll say this: if you think Roethlisberger is as good as he's been the first 3 games of the season, and the Vick is as bad as he seemed coming off the bench in Game 4, that injury impact makes sense. But Big Ben, much as I love him, has been hot early, and Vick, much as I don't love him, now should be better prepared. I bet Baltimore -2.5 -110 (all my picks go out on twitter @truepokerjoe so they can be issued in real-time from my phone) http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=432714 "He's worth a full seven points in our eyes," says John Lester of BookMaker.eu http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/article/4656645-super-bowl-50-odds-vegas-ravens-vs-steelers-line-spread-roethlisberger-injury-vick Kenny White, a Linemakers analyst and one of the most respected oddsmakers in Las Vegas, said the adjustment to the betting line from Roethlisberger to Vick is about 3.5 points. CG Technology was looking at making Pitt a 3.5- or 4-point favorite before Roethlisberger's injury, according to vice president of risk management Jason Simbal. But when opening lines were posted after Sunday’s action, Baltimore -2.5 was the number hung at most shops

Dude, thanks for posting these. I like reading them and I have no idea why. Well, every once in a while there's a nugget to be found.

Boat, she's wearing a ball cap and seems happy to be at a baseball game. She's hot just like that.

Dave Mason ‏@DaveMasonBOL 7h 7 hours agoWaving white flag. Yesterday was most profitable single day for BetOnline players in history of company. Congrats!

IIRC, the Hard Rock's deal is to take money from swing shift games and give it to day shift games so that they have day shift games. The day games there are prob pretty tight, but grindable.

I understand. But to be fair to you, that idea of yours actually has a lot of validity in tournament play. Unless you go crazy in a re-buy event, your loss is capped, so the best players maximize their upside. Grinding doesn't do any good in tourneys. You need to have a great day, not a good one, and there's no extra punishment for having a terrible day.

OP didn't say anything about a stop-loss. And aggros suck at sticking to a stop-loss. If you're losing 60% of the time, you're losing. This idea WVU has sounds like something spewed by a player who wants to justify his frequent losses. Yes, you can play 10 sessions and be ahead despite losing 6 of them. You're not going to be ahead losing 600 out of a 1000.

That's very unlikely. An aggro who wins 40% of the time and loses 60% is going to be a pretty big loser. When he wins he wins more, yes. But when he loses he loses more. But yes a good tag should win about 2/3 of the time, though it isn't win % that matters in poker.

DE Jeremy Mincey ruled out. That costs the Cowboys ~1 ppg in point spread line value. Wow, is this team crippled. 7 ppg under expectations. But it's all in the line, which we know because we are some handicapping mofos.

He's out for the Redskins, you mean.

Seahawk's notes: Kam Chancellor's return, assuming he's good for the whole game, is worth ~1 ppg in line value. Marshawn Lynch, if out, costs ~1 1/4 ppg in line value. I'd make it less but apparently Rawls will get a lot of the snaps. If Lynch is ruled inactive, ESPN Seahawks reporter Sheil Kapadia believes Fred Jackson and UDFA Thomas Rawls would "split" the workload against the Bears.

LOL, it's incredible. Every book in Vegas has Houston -6' -110 ... but CRLines has -6' -115. Every book in Vegas has SF +6' -110, except that MGM has it +6' +100 (I'm headed there now) ... but CRLines has +6' -115. It's frustrating that every pick I want in this contest seems to cost me 10 cents. Which means the donks on the other side are getting free half-points all over the place. And don't tell me "it's fair because we all get the same lines." No, it isn't. There are some square-side fucks here and it's as if this contest is practicing some weird kind of affirmative action for them. Alright, alright, I'll stop whining. It's a hugely +EV contest no matter, that's for sure.

Why does CRLines have the worst # for every game I like? Pretty much always, three weeks in a row now. I can get Lions +3 -110 still IRL, but -120 in the contest. I can get KC +7 -120 or +6' -110 all over town, but it's +7 -130 in the contest, which is about the worst line in the world. Only 5scums has that line up. These lines are so square friendly it's sick. And don't tell me to bet other games. I come in with maybe 10-12 bets I'm making IRL, hoping to find decent lines on 7 of them here, but nooooooo. I'm probably going to have to eat the extra 10 cents juice on Det and KC just to fill out my card. /rant, lol.

QB injuries have calculable pointspread impacts. #drewbrees is -3.25 pts, #JayCutler -1.5 pts, #tonyromo -2.75 pts. If you're betting football at all seriously you must know this shit. BTW, this updating stuff, and the bets I place, is more easily done on twitter because I'm out and about in Vegas (wait, that's Fishhead). Well, I'm in sports books and card rooms the whole weekend, anyway. I do my work in advance then play cards and make bets and eat and drink and update my line estimates and injury impacts, all that, on the run, from my phone. Updating in real time has to be done that way, especially bets. Those few, those intrepid few, who give a fuck can follow me on twitter @truepokerjoe