pokerjoe

So Drew Brees is announced as out, Luke McCown in. Above, I rated Brees as worth 3.25 points. Let me remind you that I'm obviously talking about generic points, not push-frequency points. Generic points are for capping, push-frequency points are for betting. It's an important distinction. The former must be translated into the latter, to bet. The difference between -1 and +1 is not 2; the difference between -2' and -3' is not 1. The line on this game has gone from Carolina -3.5 to -8. In the team's power ratings, in the first post, you'll see Carolina is 101.25 and New Orleans, without Brees, is 94.5 (it's at the end of the New Orleans notes). Add in the game's HFA, which is only 2 points (I know none of you guys still uses the old rule of thumb of 3 pts HFA; Caro/NO earns a very small HFA), and the current line exactly equals my ratings (or my ratings exactly equal the line). And this is why we rate players.

750 yards total offense, 5.7 ypp, 133 total plays, and the game had no business going over 44?

Delanie Walker (wrist) returned to full practice on Thursday. (Tenn TE). If he's in (should be), that improves Titan's line ~3/4 pt. Jets WR Chris Owusu out, with Decker out, too, Jet's are out 1.5 pts in point spread value. Has totals impact as well, obv. BTW, I expect SD TE Green to be playing.

If Ladarius Green can't go (SD TE), prob ~-1/4 to -1/2 pt as Chargers move to 3rd stringer Phillips, depending on how much and well they redistribute pass targets. I'd go with the -1/2. Antonio Gates to Ladarius Green was a little drop off; this one is worse.

You have stats to back this up? Are you saying west-east travel has no impact, or reduced impact or ... just tell us what number you put on the impact. How much do you adjust your line estimate for cross-country travel?

I should mention that the PR is player based. It's simply a sum of player ratings. It's one of the two PRs I use. This one is pretty loose, early season, in that it has wide differences with the line. I don't get too excited about 3 pt differences from the line. It does look like SF, DET and KC will all be bets. My other PR is very different and very tight. I get very excited about 3 pt differences with that one. And suspicious. Good luck.

Astute readers will note that some impacts have changed, retroactively. That's because now I've gotten to see who the actual subs were, how well they played (some were rookies), and most importantly, how snap counts distributed. Sometimes teams make important changes because of injuries, to alleviate them. No one is better at this than Belichick, whom I should just always assume will find a smart way to adjust. This week there aren't the redic swings in opinion about QB's. Public opinion naturally settles down in the middle. Winston isn't terrible, Mariota isn't God, etc. Injury impacts are in the power ratings. Power ratings without them aren't good for much.

PR is the power rating with current injuries included (that is, after all, what injury impacts are for). "X" is injury impact. "Avg X" is average injury impact for the previous games; "LW X" is the injury impact on last week's games; "New X" is current for this week. Avg X and LW X are useful for seeing how a team's been suffering and for how its situation has been changing. Q's who missed LW are generally still considered out, Q's who played LW are generally still considered in. "Q-I" is questionable, assume in, "Q-X" is questionable, assume out; "LW, NW, TW" is last week, next week, this week; "ofy" is out for year, "ion" is injury of note. Arizona Cardinals: PR: 99.5, Avg X: -0.5, LW X: -0.5, New X: -0.5 (Old: OL Bobby Massie, OL Mike Lupati, RB Ellington; New: LB LaMarr Woodley Q-I, -0.25 if X, rookie subs Mauro and Golden not bad). Atlanta Falcons: PR: 101, Avg X: 0.0, LW X: 0.0, New X: 0.0 (Old: LB Brooks Reed; New: RB Coleman out, but Freeman okay as sub; LB Paul Worrilow Q-I, -0.5 if X) Baltimore Ravens: PR: 104.25, Avg X: -0.75, LW X: -1.25, New X: -1.25 (DL Timmy Jernigan is back but his sub Carl Davis was fine anyway; LB Terrell Suggs ofy; OL Eugene Monroe missed LW, Q-X for NW, sub James Hurst is terrible). Buffalo Bills: PR: 99.5, Avg X: -0.75, LW X: -0.25, New X: -0.5 (Dl Marcell Dareus and DB Corey Graham both played LW; DB McKelvin's sub Darby played well; DB Aaron Williams out, probably Bacarri Rambo picking up the snaps). Carolina Panthers: PR: 101.25, Avg X: -1.5, LW X: -2.0; New X: -2.25 (LB Kuechly, DT Star Lotulelei, WR Jerricho Cotchery are all Q-X) Chicago Bears: PR: 93.5, Avg X: -1.5, LW X: -2.0, New X: -3.5 (DT Jeremiah Ratliff -1.0 out, WR Jeffery -1.0 Q-X, DL Ferguson Q-X no matter, QB Jay Cutler -1.5 out) Cincinnati Bengals: PR: 103.25, Avg X: -0.5, LW X: -0.5, New X: -0.5 (LB Vontaze Burfict; DB Iloka played LW). Cleveland Browns: PR: 98, Avg X: -0.5; LW X: -0.75, New X: -0.75 (QB Josh McCown Q-X) Dallas Cowboys: PR: 98.75, Avg X: -2.5, LW X: -3.5, New X: -6.0 (LB Rolando McClain, DE Greg Hardy, WR Dez Bryant, QB Tony Romo; S Barry Church Q-I, -1/4 pt if out). Denver Broncos: PR: 103.5, Avg X: 0, LW X: 0, New X: 0. Detroit Lions: PR: 102, Avg X:-0.5; LW X: -0.5, New X: -0.5 (LaAdrian Waddle back but no matter; LB DeAndre Levy Q-X, -0.5). IF STAFFORD CAN'T GO, -1.75 PTS, PR DROPS TO 100 Green Bay Packers: PR: 104, Avg X: 0.75, LW X: -1.5, New X: -1.5 (-1.25 for LB Sam Barrington and OL Bulaga who was subbed by horrific rookie Barclay; -1/4 for Lacy if he goes, -3/4 to a full point if he can't, depending upon who they sign for a temp backup RB). Houston Texans: PR: 99.75, Avg X: -1.25, LW X: -1.25, New X: -1.25 (RB Adrian Foster, OL Duane Brown both are Q-X); Indianapolis Colts: PR: 101.25, Avg X: -0.75, LW-X -1.0, New X: -1.0 (assumes DB's Toler and Butler are still out, Vontae Davis in; LB Mathis got some snaps MNF). Jacksonville Jaguars: PR: 95.25, Avg X: -1.25, LW X: -1.5, New X: -1.5 (DL Sen'Derrick Marksb-0.5, Andre Branch -0.25, TE Julius Thomas -0.5, DB Cyprien -0.25) Kansas City Chiefs: PR: 104, Avg X: 0, LW X: 0, New X: 0. Miami Dolphins: PR: 98.5, Avg X: 0.0, LW X: 0.0, New X: -1.75 (OL Albert, DL Cameron Wake and TE Cameron all Q-X) Minnesota Vikings: PR: 101.5, Avg X: -0.25, LW X: -0.25, New X: -0.25 (C John Sullivan) New England Patriots: PR: 104.75, Avg X: -0.75, LW X: -0.75, New X: -0.75, (C Bryan Stork; C Ryan Wendell, WR Brandon LaFell). No one handles injuries better than Belichick New Orleans Saints: PR: 97.75, Avg X: -1.0, LW X: -1.0, New X: -1.0, (DB Keenan Lewis -3/4, S Rafael Bush -1/4). IF BREES CANNOT GO, -3.25 PTS & PR=94.5 New York Giants: PR: 99, Avg X: -2.75, LW X: -3.0, New X: -3.0 (WR Victor Cruz -1/2, DE Jason Pierre-Paul -1/2, T Will Beatty -1/4, TE Daniel Fells -1/2 Q-X, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie -1.25 Q-X; assuming LB Beason is back, additional -1.0 otherwise; with luck, G Flowers is out, a rare time I rate an injury +1/4). New York Jets: PR: 100.75, Avg X: -1.0, LW X: -1.0, New X: -2.5 (DT Sheldon Richardson -1.0, WR Eric Decker -1.5) Oakland Raiders: PR: 96.5, Avg X: -1/2, LW X: -1/2, New X: -1/2, (S Nate Allen) Philadelphia Eagles: PR: 102, Avg X: 0, LW X: 0, New X: -1.25 (LB Kiko Alonso -1/4, LB Mychal Kendricks -1) Pittsburgh Steelers: PR: 102.5, Avg X: -1.75, LW X: -1.75, New X: -1.25, (WR Martavis Bryant, C Maurkice Pouncey; Leveon Bell returns) San Diego Chargers: PR: 101.5, Avg X: -0.5, LW X: -0.5, New X: -0.5, (TE Antonio Gates, OL D.J. Fluker). San Francisco 49ers: PR: 98.5, Avg X: -0.25, LW X: -0.25, New X: -0.25, (C Daniel Kilgore; no idea what Reggie Bush will do, if anything; assuming Carlos Hyde is in) Seattle Seahawks: PR: 103.75, Avg X: -1.0, LW X: -1.0; New X: -1.0, (S Kam Chancellor back, but why would he play in this 2 TD fave spot?) St. Louis Rams: PR: 100, Avg X: 0, LW X: 0, New X: 0, No significant injuries. Interesting receiving target distribution. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PR: 95, Avg X: -0.75, LW X: -0.25 (WR Mike Evans returned), New X: -0.25 (OL Dotson) Tennessee Titans PR: 97, Avg X: -1.5, LW X: -1.75, New X: -2.0 (DT Sammie Hill -1/2, CB Jason McCourty -1/2, TE Delanie Walker -3/4, OL Chance Warmack -1/4). Washington Redskins: PR: 96, Avg X: -1.0, LW X: -1.75, New X: (WR DeSean Jackson -1/2; DBs Chris Culliver -3/4 and Duke Ihenacho -1/2)

T.Y. Hilton is in tonight, but maybe limited. He's worth a full point to the Colts if fully playing. BUT: the line has dropped on the Colts. I have the Jets at +7 already. It's down to 6 at sharp joints, but 6' is still WA. Even with Hilton back fully playing, I'd say 6' was still marginally +EV. If he's not full healthy, I'd say 6' was absolutely +EV. But I'm not a tout with inside-the-locker-room info, so I don't know about Hilton. I'd call it a lean on the Jets still even at 6'. Good luck. I'm not a tout at all (I've been posting on the forums for about 15 years, without any claims that I've ever hustled anyone in the least), but I do now post picks, on twitter @truepokerjoe It's easier for me to post them there than here because I can do it from my phone, real time, which is, duh, how I bet. I signed up for twitter to keep speed on injury info. But as soon as twitterverse finds out you're into sportsbetting, you'll get flooded with touts "following" you and sending messages like "Hey, you want to make some money? Send me some and ..." So now I'm posting free plays just to fuck with these assholes. Of course it's a weird mentality behind customers of touts. Why would you pay some random to flip coins for you? Just to avoid taking responsibility for you're own flipping? The customers probably tell themselves "Hey, the guy's record is documented!" or whatever, but I can't believe they really fall for that shit. And if they do, maybe they should be parted from their money. Anyway, I'll be back in a few days with impact values for the big injuries this weekend.

Pre season, I had Bradford rated off his stats of 2 years ago. But the line opening day--and I will sometimes use the line as a guide--indicated that using his stats from 3 years ago was a better fit. Now, I'm back to using the stats from 2 years ago, and this year's first two games. He isn't as great as he looked pre, but he also probably isn't as bad as he's looked so far reg, either.

Sorry I once again didn't get back here to update injury impacts on game day, but FB weekends are too busy. And there isn't that much interest in actual handicapping, lol, which I already knew, so I'll prob stop with these threads. But at least maybe I got across the idea that actual handicapping is fun. It's like crossword puzzles you can bet on. It is nice to see that all the QB overreactions this weekend played out right, for handicappers. Peyton and Jameis aren't practice squad level QBs and Mariota isn't quite elite yet and there's money to be made capping this game straight out old school.

Def like TB if WR Mike Evans makes it back. I've already bet them but if Evans is back AND I can still get +10, I'll re-hit. Fading Tenn, with Manziel taking over for McCown, is less appetizing. But if the betting gets donkalicious Sunday with square money pushing it up to +3 -120 (that's as high as I can see it going; I don't think it'll get that high), I'll take it. But I doubt that will happen. But then again, CRIS opened this game Cle -4 and it's now Cle +2 (CRIS and Coast).

Not because Den covered am I saying this, but the teams last night played about even in yardage and first downs and both had a turnover returned for a TD. The game rated a coin flip to me and I think played out that way, though bizarre at the end. The thing is, for the line to be right, you'd have had to say Manning is terrible. About equal to most practice squad QBs. And there's no evidence of that. He's worse than before, but again, for the line to have made sense he would have to be off the charts bad. Tonight I played cards while watching the game and almost everyone was on KC and of course no one thought about what it was they were betting, which is that they were betting Peyton is now the worst QB in the league. He isn't. But if you don't make numbers, you can't see that. If you do make numbers you can play with them and figure out just how bad to you have to rate him for the line to make sense, and then is it possible he's that bad? With Tenn, it's the opposite. For that line to make sense you'd have to rate Mariota equal to Aaron Rodgers. That's fine if that's what you want to do, but at least recognize that's what you're doing. With TB, it's like Denver tonight: for that line to make sense, Winston has to be unbelievably low rated. Worse than practice squad players.

Absolutely boink. If I was an NFL player in a state where weed was legal, I'd smoke the hell out of it after the games finished, to recover, and then sue the hell out of the NFL for trying to make me use vicodin or whatever instead, which is much worse shit. Actually I wouldn't because I'd want those fat paychecks to keep rolling in, so instead I'd say "Go, Ronda, go."

Peyton Manning's adjustment is interesting. Often a player's rating has to be adjusted with some common sense; an algorithm can form the base number but they have to then be looked at and made sense of. Peyton's clearly not the player he used to be, but what player is he? Generally, my numbers are set up to use stats from 2 years back, last year and this year (weighted for recency). But injuries and team changes, or even coaching changes (with a system change) make that a bad idea for some players. Peyton is an example. His decline is pretty noticeable, obv. But how to put a number on it? For now I'm using the second half of last year only, with this year, which drops his rating, and thus Denver's, by two full points. But I'll certainly think about using this year alone. And this is where using the market, using the spreads themselves, can be a guide. The market already said I valued Denver too highly in GM1 (which fortunately came out okay for my Denver bet, but winning or losing individual bets is not the measure of handicapping success). The market says I still rate Denver too highly tonight and that's after dropping my rating (and two points drop is huge; usually ratings change by very small increments). Every bet is an argument with the market. If we never disputed the market's assessment, we'd never make bets (I mean as handicappers; as line value grinders, otoh, we basically do the opposite: we never dispute the market, we use the market to bet against off-market numbers). But as handicappers we should at least respect the market and use it as a check on ourselves, and learn from it. We can't say "the market is always right," or else we'd make no bets. But we shouldn't say "I'm always right" or we'll end up broke. It takes a balance and constant adjustment. For now I think I'm probably on Denver tonight. Also, I'm not giving out picks here but I have a twitter account, truepokerjoe, which I'll use for late injury updates and bets, if anyone wants to follow. And I will try to post ratings on major late injury announcements here.

I've got tons more notes but ran out of steam on typing them up. All told, typing this up probably cost me about an hour and a half this week, which is too much. The work had to be done anyway, but the posting doesn't, lol. Hopefully you guys get some value out of them. I will say that the predictionmachine shit is exactly what I don't want to do. This guy had Brady 9 points over Garappolo. I had it 4. When Brady was announced as playing in GM1, the line moved 4. That doesn't make me a genius, that just reflects the fact that my numbers have been developed and smoothed out with the betting market as the proving ground for more than a decade. Even if you don't make numbers by program (I do it with a program base then judgment smoothing), if you've been handicapping for years you should have a good eye for what numbers make sense and which fail the laugh test. Good luck this weekend.

Okay, I hope this formats okay. I will try to get back to this thread pre-game, but I'm insanely busy this week and next. This is the time to really bear down and polish up ratings. Snap counts and distributions, actual lineups, actual substitution patterns, rookies getting their first games, all that creates tons of work. Next week, too. But after that things chill. Arizona Cardinals: Avg X: -0.5 (OL Bobby Massie, OL Mike Lupati). New X: unchanged (Andre Ellington). Notes: Ellington is DFS notable but in the real world the Johnsons subbing for him ~equal his rate. OL subs Larsen and Watford graded out ok LW. Atlanta Falcons: Avg X: -0.25 (LB Brooks Reed), New X: unchanged. Notes: LBs Schofield and Biermann okay picking up Reed's snaps. Baltimore Ravens: Avg X: -.25 (DL Timmy Jernigan, RB Lorenzo Taliaferro); New X: -0.75 (LB Terrell Suggs). Notes: WTF with OL Ricky Wagner? Destroyed in his last game last year, getting injured. Destroyed GM1 this year. Buffalo Bills: Avg X: -1.5 (Dl Marcell Dareus and DB Leodis McKelvin); New X: -2.0 (DB Corey Graham Q, but I'll list his as X (in protocol)). Notes: OL Richie Incognito, who missed LY with injury, looked his old good self in first reg game back. Carolina Panthers: Avg X: -0.75 (DT Star Lotulelei); New X: -2.0 (LB Kuechly, in protocol; assuming he out; if not, team X remains -.75) Chicago Bears: Avg X: -1.0 (DT Jeremiah Ratliff); New X: unchanged. Cincinnati Bengals: Avg X: -0.5 (LB Vontaze Burfict); New X: -1.0 (DB Iloka; looks bad, and he was out all offseason with injury, and couldn't play 2nd half of GM 1) Cleveland Browns: Avg X: -0.25 (Dwayne Bowe); New X: -0.75 (QB Manziel in for McCown; coaches observing him in practice rank him behind McCown, obv; unpredictable rating adjustment, admittedly). Dallas Cowboys: Avg X: -1.25 (LB Rolando McClain, DE Greg Hardy); New X: -3.0 (WR Dez Bryant). Denver Broncos: Avg X: 0; New X: unchanged. Either DB TJ Ward or David Bruton should show up Thursday (both Q). DL Derek Wolfe has trivial impact. Note: Manning, rated off last 10 games instead of all of last year, -2 pts. Detroit Lions: Avg X:-1.5 (OL Larry Warford and LaAdrian Waddle; LB DeAndre Levy); New X: -1.5 BUT all IONs are Q for this week as is DB Darius Slay Green Bay Packers: Avg X: 0 (DL Letroy Guion) New X: -1.0 (S Morgan Burnett, LB Sam Barrington are doubtful). Houston Texans: Avg X: -1.0 (RB Adrian Foster); New X: unchanged (TE Ryan Griffin doubtful, but no X). Indianapolis Colts: Avg X: -0.5 (LB Robert Mathis unrateable, not in my original PR this year; DB Greg Toler still Q); New X: -1.5 (assumes Q WR T.Y. Hilton, who would be -1.0, is out). Jacksonville Jaguars Avg X: -1.25 (DL Sen'Derrick Marks, Andre Branch, WR Marqise Lee, TE Julius Thomas); New X: -0.75 (assumes DL Sen'Derrick Marks returns and WR Lee still out) Kansas City Chiefs: Avg X: 0, New X: unchanged. No IONs. DL Dontari Poe ended up playing. Note: Rookie C Morse did well. Miami Dolphins: Avg X: 0; New X: unchanged Minnesota Vikings: Avg X: -0.25 (C John Sullivan); New X: unchanged. New England Patriots: Avg X: -1.75 (C Bryan Stork; C Ryan Wendell, WR Brandon LaFell, RB LaGarette Blount); New X: -1.0 (RB Blount returns). Notes: 3rd string C Andrews okay as sub. New Orleans Saints: Avg X: -1.5 (RB C.J. Spiller, DB Keenan Lewis, DB Jairus Byrd), New X: -2.0 (S Rafael Bush). DB injuries are compiling. New York Giants: Avg X: -2.75 (WR Victor Cruz, LB Jon Beason, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, T Will Beatty); New X: -2.75 New York Jets: Avg X: -0.75 (DT Sheldon Richardson); New X: -1.25 (CB Antonio Cromartie) Oakland Raiders: Avg X: 0, New X: -1.25 (S Nate Allen, S Charles Woodson) Philadelphia Eagles: Avg X: O, New X: the unchanged. No idea what to make of Kiko Alonso. Missed last year; looked bad in GM1 this year. Pittsburgh Steelers Avg X: -2.0 (WR Martavis Bryant, RB Le'Veon Bell, C Maurkice Pouncey); New X: unchanged San Diego Chargers Avg X: -0.5 (TE Antonion Gates); New X: -0.75 (OL D.J. Fluker). Note: S Addae is Q, but without impact anyway. San Francisco 49ers Avg X: -0.25 (C Daniel Kilgore); New X: unchanged. Seattle Seahawks Avg X: -1.5 (S Kam Chancellor, CB Jeremy Lane); New X: unchanged. Note: S Thomas, despite missing pre, played fine. S Bailey, otoh … St. Louis Rams Avg X: 0 (RB Tre Mason, RB Todd Gurley, WR Brian Quick); New X: unchanged. All these guys, still Q, are ~= to the crew who played. RB Cunningham was fine GM1. CB Trumaine Johnson is Q; he's -0.75 if out. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Avg X: -1.5 (WR Mike Evans, T Demar Dotson); New X: unchanged (WR Evans is Q tw). Notes: OL Cherilius terrible sub for Dotson in GM1. Tennessee Titans Avg X: -1.50 (DT Sammie Hill, CB Jason McCourty); New X: -2.0 (TE Delanie Walker, zQ, but I'm calling him out for now). Washington Redskins: Avg X: -0.25 (CB Bashaud Breeland); New X: -2.5 (WR DeSean Jackson; DB Breeland probable, but DBs Chris Culliver and Duke Ihenacho now X)

http://predictionmachine.com/NFL-Injury-Roundup-Point-Impact is a site that also puts out injury impact values. They're terrible. They're simplistic and very clearly have not smoothed out in the betting markets. It's handicapping, but BAD handicapping.

"X" is injury impact, "ION" is injury of note, "Avg" is the team's average X per previous games, which right now just means LW's X (LW is last week, NW is next week, TW is this week). Deducted points are power rating values. I deal in 1/4 pts for the ease and to avoid false precision. After the Avg X, in parentheses, are IONs carried over from LW. After the New X, in parentheses, are new IONs. IONs without actual impact are still noted so that you know I am aware of them. Players returning from injuries (RP's) are noted; Q (questionable) RP's are generally still considered out, Q's who played LW are generally still considered in. In any case, a Q's X may be noted so that you can account for status updates.

So this game was shortened by 10 minutes, by coaches' agreement, which I presume invalidates all bets. Never heard of anything like it.

My last attempt to explain this (and there's a reason I've always said the issue is misunderstanding of BTCL).. Mike, it doesn't matter what the market close is. What matters, with any bet, is the EV at the time you make it. If you get all in pre-flop with AA against KK, you're +EV, and that fact doesn't change if your opponent flops a set. In line value grinding, all that matters is that the bet be +EV at the time you make it, and the measure of that EV is the disparity between the weak number and the sharp number. In the long run, whatever EV you had at the time of the bet you should also, on average, have at the close, because post-bet variance should be neutral. But EV at the close can not rationally be the measure of a bet's wisdom. LV grinding is one thing; BTCL is when you try to use post-bet line moves as a validation of your handicapping edge. Different things, and the difference between them is why guys, on this issue, end up arguing past each other. Good luck today.

Again, it's just a question of me distinguishing between common line value, which is what you're talking about, and BTCL as a handicapping edge verification. Absolutely, no need to handicap if you can earn off line value.

Bolded is right, but I'm talking about how to label things. To me, what Fish and anyone else grinding off numbers is doing is best called "beating the juice," not BTCL. If you find a number so removed from the consensus sharp line that it has EV after the juice, then grind it. If an NBA game is 7 sharp, 8 square, and you bet that +8, it's +EV but it doesn't matter if you bet it early, mid-day or late. You aren't anticipating later line movements, or don't care about them, because for the most part, post-bet line movements will be neutral. It isn't an edge dependent upon post-bet line movements for verification. Keep making bets +EV against the current sharp line and you'll make money. That's beating the juice, that's common line value (LV). No one rationally disputes the edges gained from finding LV. BTCL, apart from that (you might say CLV apart from LV) is about using post-bet line movements as verification of your handicapping talents. So if the consensus line is 7 and you bet the dog and it closes 6', you're "right" and if it closes 7' you're "wrong." In theory your fellow handicappers, via the market, are proving you right or wrong in your capping, and that's supposed to be reassuring or validating. Here's the thing: post-bet line movements are out of your control, and pretty much unpredictable. Guys will say "When I have CLV, I win more." Yes. Duh. If you bet and later the opp's starting QB is announced out and the line moves your way, you'll win more. Everything that happens after you bet is out of your control. Don't sweat it. Here's where BTCL is useful: in breaking down your capping errors. I'll sometimes bet a total and see the line move against me, then the game plays out and I lose (and by pace, not just by score). That inspires pretty furious research on my part. It's a tell, so to speak, that something's up and I need to find out what it is. But if it's just that there was a major (unannounced) injury, or a sudden weather development, or whatever, well then FML. Seriously, that shit just happens and it comes out in the wash. If you study your betting history and find out that when post-bet news went your way you won more and when it went against you, you lost more, how exactly is that interesting? LV is indisputably useful. BTCL is something of a semantics or logic fail. BTCl absolutely correlates with making money because closing lines are a little more efficient than openers. But saying "just BTCL" isn't any more useful than saying "Just beat the spread," which ... isn't useful.

Kinger, because I (sick brag) won last night with the under, my account, even after the other 600 bets I made, shows 195 available. I know I can not bet that, per contest rules, but what happens if I try to bet that? Accidentally bet that? Whatever. Will the software prevent an 8th bet?

CB Toler out for the Colts. Darius Butler is pretty much his equal; he'll pick up snaps. Problem is that Jalil Brown will have to pick up Butler's snaps, which wasn't that many, so only about 1/4 pt to 1/2 loss on the whole deal, BUT if they lose another CB in the game, then things will get problematic. Same sit with Skins: Breeland is out, DeAngelo Hall picks up his starter's snaps, and Justin Rogers will pick up Hall's snaps in the nickel. Prob about -1/4 to -1/2 pt loss in value, but the thing about third CB's is that though they play fewer snaps, they often come at key times in the game. Nice to see the Panther's DB injuries clearing up, in that Norman and Tillman are both going to play. I have an un-bet lean on Caro now. And yes I know I'm a handicapping nerd, lol. I will try to get back with pre-game updates on Sunday, but I'm swamped with CFB right now, have tons of Vegas weekend poker to play, and things get hairy. Good luck to you all.