Ok. So lets say beating the closing number/getting the best number over the long term...

[Bfo]

Visit MI CASA

 

I live close by and have gone to Mi Casa probably 50-75 times over the years. Above average food and decently priced, although anyone who plays even a marginal amount at the Silverton should rarely have to pay for food.

 

My only complaint about Mi Casa is they seem to change the staff way too often for my taste, as soon as you get used to the bartenders/servers a new group replaces them every year or so. My personal favorite was the girl Monika from Poland, who worked at Mermaids as well.

[FISHHEAD]

Spot on review

[Balco]

Thanks Kinger.....video for the boys in this thread only on the way.

Best in the business for a reason.

[sweeper]

unreal

 

fishhead lugging in a bucket of quarters

 

i think the -ev of getting mugged in the parking lot are right about the same as the +ev from turning them in

 

need video of this...

 

 

BAUS

[BigDaddy]

start a thread. I bet you won't beat the closer 67% or more of the time from the opening line.

ha

 

love it

[FISHHEAD]

..............if I didn't beat the closer over 67% of the time, would have been out of business years and years ago.

[FISHHEAD]

The quarter progressive at the Plaza Bar is at 4k...........the usual band of suspects have made their way to the arena here.

[FISHHEAD]

1000 pts today Silverton earns a pull tab and also a ticket for October 3rd drawing

[FISHHEAD]

Mystery FP and Multiplyer Suncoast today

[milwaukee mike]

good stuff fishhead

 

hungover fishhead is very open about opportunities in the desert

[FISHHEAD]

LoL, no hangovers when on a strict 3 drink max per day............although think Chritstina was delivering three shots of patron into my drinks.

[FISHHEAD]

[pokerjoe]

why wouldn't you consider that beating the closer?  beating the closing line means beating the market at kickoff... only way of doing that 90% of the time is by betting off lines

 

Bolded is right, but I'm talking about how to label things.

 

To me, what Fish and anyone else grinding off numbers is doing is best called "beating the juice," not BTCL.

 

 If you find a number so removed from the consensus sharp line that it has EV after the juice, then grind it.  If an NBA game is 7 sharp, 8 square, and you bet that +8, it's +EV but it doesn't matter if you bet it early, mid-day or late.  You aren't anticipating later line movements, or don't care about them, because for the most part, post-bet line movements will be neutral. It isn't an edge dependent upon post-bet line movements for verification. Keep making bets +EV against the current sharp line and you'll make money.  That's beating the juice, that's common line value (LV).  No one rationally disputes the edges gained from finding LV.

 

BTCL, apart from that (you might say CLV apart from LV) is about using post-bet line movements as verification of your handicapping talents.  So if the consensus line is 7 and you bet the dog and it closes 6', you're "right" and if it closes 7' you're "wrong."  In theory your fellow handicappers, via the market, are proving you right or wrong in your capping, and that's supposed to be reassuring or validating.

 

Here's the thing: post-bet line movements are out of your control, and pretty much unpredictable.  Guys will say "When I have CLV, I win more."  Yes. Duh. If you bet and later the opp's starting QB is announced out and the line moves your way, you'll win more. 

 

Everything that happens after you bet is out of your control.  Don't sweat it.

 

Here's where BTCL is useful: in breaking down your capping errors.  I'll sometimes bet a total and see the line move against me, then the game plays out and I lose (and by pace, not just by score).  That inspires pretty furious research on my part.  It's a tell, so to speak, that something's up and I need to find out what it is.  But if it's just that there was a major (unannounced) injury, or a sudden weather development, or whatever, well then FML.  Seriously, that shit just happens and it comes out in the wash.  If you study your betting history and find out that when post-bet news went your way you won more and when it went against you, you lost more, how exactly is that interesting?

 

LV is indisputably useful. BTCL is something of a semantics or logic fail.  BTCl absolutely correlates with making money because closing lines are a little more efficient than openers.  But saying "just BTCL" isn't any more useful than saying "Just beat the spread," which ... isn't useful.

[milwaukee mike]

disagree about that last sentence joe

 

beating the closing line is useful if you know why you are beating it.  which for me (and most others) means getting a good line instead of predicting moves.

 

I would rather have no handicapping talents (which is close to right) and a lot of money and a lot of weird outs... instead of having all the handicapping talent in the world and waste 10 hours/day to make $100 off of it

 

I can just deposit 750 to betphoenix and take a cash bonus of 750 until I build up a huge balance or go busto.  so I made 750 today and the guys trying to be smarter than the market might have made 100 if they're lucky. 

[pokerjoe]

disagree about that last sentence joe

 

beating the closing line is useful if you know why you are beating it.  which for me (and most others) means getting a good line instead of predicting moves.

 

I would rather have no handicapping talents (which is close to right) and a lot of money and a lot of weird outs... instead of having all the handicapping talent in the world and waste 10 hours/day to make $100 off of it

 

I can just deposit 750 to betphoenix and take a cash bonus of 750 until I build up a huge balance or go busto.  so I made 750 today and the guys trying to be smarter than the market might have made 100 if they're lucky. 

 

Again, it's just a question of me distinguishing between common line value, which is what you're talking about, and BTCL as a handicapping edge verification.  Absolutely, no need to handicap if you can earn off line value.

[FISHHEAD]

San Jose State +210 @WH.......bet just now.

[FISHHEAD]

Applelation State +20 at SP and Coasts......betting now

[FISHHEAD]

Grande/cris close APP ST +18

[milwaukee mike]

what's the value betting a +20 at -110 when the market closes at +18?

 

i'm sure there's something there on anything 1.5 points or more, even if they're random numbers like 18 or 19?

[FISHHEAD]

Clemson gonna win by over 40, so not much.........Hahahahahahahahahaha

[Sol Diabler]

-FH-

 

What is your motivation for posting these plays in this thread?

 

We all know you get some good numbers with all of your outs.  Unless you are going to post all of your plays and track them, you really aren't proving anything.

 

But you know that.  So I'm puzzled as to why you are wasting your time here. 

 

[Sol Diabler]

And add another platty to Diabler's long list.  

 

[Sol Diabler]

-FH-

 

What is your motivation for posting these plays in this thread?

 

We all know you get some good numbers with all of your outs.  Unless you are going to post all of your plays and track them, you really aren't proving anything.

 

But you know that.  So I'm puzzled as to why you are wasting your time here. 

 

 

And what % of your plays are betting the opening lines, vs betting near the start of a game?

 

In order for the "study" to be legit and accurate, ALL plays would need to be posted shortly after being placed.

 

I would love for someone (not -FH- since he is in his final days and needs to enjoy life to the fullest) who claims to be good at this actually make a thread and track it.  I think it would fascinating stuff. 

[pokerjoe]

what's the value betting a +20 at -110 when the market closes at +18?

 

i'm sure there's something there on anything 1.5 points or more, even if they're random numbers like 18 or 19?

 

My last attempt to explain this (and there's a reason I've always said the issue is misunderstanding of BTCL)..

 

Mike, it doesn't matter what the market close is.

 

What matters, with any bet, is the EV at the time you make it.  If you get all in pre-flop with AA against KK, you're +EV, and that fact doesn't change if your opponent flops a set.

 

In line value grinding, all that matters is that the bet be +EV at the time you make it, and the measure of that EV is the disparity between the weak number and the sharp number. 

 

In the long run, whatever EV you had at the time of the bet you should also, on average, have at the close, because post-bet variance should be neutral. But EV at the close can not rationally be the measure of a bet's wisdom.

 

LV grinding is one thing; BTCL is when you try to use post-bet line moves as a validation of your handicapping edge.  Different things, and the difference between them is why guys, on this issue, end up arguing past each other.

 

Good luck today.

[milwaukee mike]

My last attempt to explain this (and there's a reason I've always said the issue is misunderstanding of BTCL)..

 

Mike, it doesn't matter what the market close is.

 

What matters, with any bet, is the EV at the time you make it.  If you get all in pre-flop with AA against KK, you're +EV, and that fact doesn't change if your opponent flops a set.

 

In line value grinding, all that matters is that the bet be +EV at the time you make it, and the measure of that EV is the disparity between the weak number and the sharp number. 

 

In the long run, whatever EV you had at the time of the bet you should also, on average, have at the close, because post-bet variance should be neutral. But EV at the close can not rationally be the measure of a bet's wisdom.

 

LV grinding is one thing; BTCL is when you try to use post-bet line moves as a validation of your handicapping edge.  Different things, and the difference between them is why guys, on this issue, end up arguing past each other.

 

Good luck today.

 

I get that joe, that wasn't my question

 

my question was what is the actual value of +20 -110 vs +18 +100

 

was more of a math question about how much those 2 points are worth, obviously quite a bit less than +8 vs +6

 

I asked it because youwager was at +19.5 when others were +18 and I was thinking about whether or not to bet it