NFL injuries Week 2

[pokerjoe]

"X" is injury impact, "ION" is injury of note, "Avg" is the team's average X per previous games, which right now just means LW's X (LW is last week, NW is next week, TW is this week). Deducted points are power rating values. I deal in 1/4 pts for the ease and to avoid false precision. After the Avg X, in parentheses, are IONs carried over from LW. After the New X, in parentheses, are new IONs. IONs without actual impact are still noted so that you know I am aware of them. Players returning from injuries (RP's) are noted; Q (questionable) RP's are generally still considered out, Q's who played LW are generally still considered in. In any case, a Q's X may be noted so that you can account for status updates.

 

[pokerjoe]

http://predictionmachine.com/NFL-Injury-Roundup-Point-Impact is a site that also puts out injury impact values.  They're terrible.  They're simplistic and very clearly have not smoothed out in the betting markets.  It's handicapping, but BAD handicapping. 

 

[pokerjoe]

Okay, I hope this formats okay.  I will try to get back to this thread pre-game, but I'm insanely busy this week and next.  This is the time to really bear down and polish up ratings.  Snap counts and distributions, actual lineups, actual substitution patterns, rookies getting their first games, all that creates tons of work. Next week, too.  But after that things chill.

 

Arizona Cardinals: Avg X: -0.5 (OL Bobby Massie, OL Mike Lupati). New X: unchanged (Andre Ellington). Notes: Ellington is DFS notable but in the real world the Johnsons subbing for him ~equal his rate. OL subs Larsen and Watford graded out ok LW.

 

Atlanta Falcons: Avg X: -0.25 (LB Brooks Reed), New X: unchanged.  Notes: LBs Schofield and Biermann okay picking up Reed's snaps.

 

Baltimore Ravens: Avg X: -.25 (DL Timmy Jernigan, RB Lorenzo Taliaferro); New X:  -0.75 (LB Terrell Suggs). Notes: WTF with OL Ricky Wagner? Destroyed in his last game last year, getting injured. Destroyed GM1 this year. 

 

Buffalo Bills: Avg X: -1.5 (Dl Marcell Dareus and DB Leodis McKelvin); New X: -2.0 (DB Corey Graham Q, but I'll list his as X (in protocol)). Notes: OL Richie Incognito, who missed LY with injury, looked his old good self in first reg game back.

 

Carolina Panthers: Avg X: -0.75 (DT Star Lotulelei); New X: -2.0 (LB Kuechly, in protocol; assuming he out; if not, team X remains -.75)

 

Chicago Bears: Avg X: -1.0 (DT Jeremiah Ratliff); New X: unchanged.

 

Cincinnati Bengals: Avg X: -0.5 (LB Vontaze Burfict); New X: -1.0 (DB Iloka; looks bad, and he was out all offseason with injury, and couldn't play 2nd half of GM 1)

 

Cleveland Browns: Avg X: -0.25 (Dwayne Bowe); New X: -0.75 (QB Manziel in for McCown; coaches observing him in practice rank him behind McCown, obv; unpredictable rating adjustment, admittedly).

 

Dallas Cowboys: Avg X: -1.25 (LB Rolando McClain, DE Greg Hardy); New X: -3.0 (WR Dez Bryant).

 

Denver Broncos: Avg X: 0; New X: unchanged.  Either DB TJ Ward or David Bruton should show up Thursday (both Q). DL Derek Wolfe has trivial impact. Note: Manning, rated off last 10 games instead of all of last year, -2 pts.

 

Detroit Lions: Avg X:-1.5 (OL Larry Warford and LaAdrian Waddle; LB DeAndre Levy); New X: -1.5 BUT all IONs are Q for this week as is DB Darius Slay

 

Green Bay Packers: Avg X: 0 (DL Letroy Guion) New X: -1.0 (S Morgan Burnett, LB Sam Barrington are doubtful).

 

Houston Texans: Avg X: -1.0 (RB Adrian Foster); New X: unchanged (TE Ryan Griffin doubtful, but no X).

 

Indianapolis Colts: Avg X: -0.5 (LB Robert Mathis unrateable, not in my original PR this year; DB Greg Toler still Q); New X: -1.5 (assumes Q WR T.Y. Hilton, who would be -1.0, is out).  

 

Jacksonville Jaguars Avg X: -1.25 (DL Sen'Derrick Marks, Andre Branch, WR Marqise Lee, TE Julius Thomas);  New X: -0.75 (assumes DL Sen'Derrick Marks returns and WR Lee still out)

 

Kansas City Chiefs: Avg X: 0, New X: unchanged. No IONs. DL Dontari Poe ended up playing. Note: Rookie C Morse did well.

 

Miami Dolphins: Avg X: 0; New X: unchanged 

Minnesota Vikings: Avg X: -0.25 (C John Sullivan); New X: unchanged.

 

New England Patriots: Avg X: -1.75 (C Bryan Stork; C Ryan Wendell, WR Brandon LaFell, RB LaGarette Blount); New X: -1.0 (RB Blount returns). Notes: 3rd string C Andrews okay as sub.

 

New Orleans Saints: Avg X: -1.5 (RB C.J. Spiller, DB Keenan Lewis, DB Jairus Byrd), New X: -2.0 (S Rafael Bush). DB injuries are compiling.

 

New York Giants: Avg X: -2.75 (WR Victor Cruz, LB Jon Beason, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, T Will Beatty); New X: -2.75

 

New York Jets: Avg X: -0.75 (DT Sheldon Richardson); New X: -1.25 (CB Antonio Cromartie)

 

Oakland Raiders: Avg X: 0, New X: -1.25 (S Nate Allen, S Charles Woodson)

 

Philadelphia Eagles: Avg X: O, New X: the unchanged. No idea what to make of Kiko Alonso.  Missed last year; looked bad in GM1 this year.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers Avg X: -2.0 (WR Martavis Bryant, RB Le'Veon Bell, C Maurkice Pouncey); New X: unchanged

 

San Diego Chargers Avg X: -0.5 (TE Antonion Gates); New X: -0.75 (OL D.J. Fluker). Note: S Addae is Q, but without impact anyway.

 

San Francisco 49ers Avg X: -0.25 (C Daniel Kilgore); New X: unchanged.

 

Seattle Seahawks Avg X: -1.5 (S Kam Chancellor, CB Jeremy Lane); New X: unchanged. Note: S Thomas, despite missing pre, played fine. S Bailey, otoh …

 

St. Louis Rams Avg X: 0 (RB Tre Mason, RB Todd Gurley, WR Brian Quick); New X: unchanged.  All these guys, still Q, are ~= to the crew who played. RB Cunningham was fine GM1. CB Trumaine Johnson is Q; he's -0.75 if out.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Avg X: -1.5 (WR Mike Evans, T Demar Dotson); New X: unchanged (WR Evans is Q tw). Notes: OL Cherilius terrible sub for Dotson in GM1.

 

Tennessee Titans Avg X: -1.50 (DT Sammie Hill, CB Jason McCourty); New X: -2.0  (TE Delanie Walker, zQ, but I'm calling him out for now).

 

Washington Redskins: Avg X: -0.25 (CB Bashaud Breeland); New X: -2.5 (WR DeSean Jackson; DB Breeland probable, but DBs Chris Culliver and Duke Ihenacho now X)

[pokerjoe]

I've got tons more notes but ran out of steam on typing them up. All told, typing this up probably cost me about an hour and a half this week, which is too much.  The work had to be done anyway, but the posting doesn't, lol.  

 

Hopefully you guys get some value out of them.

 

I will say that the predictionmachine shit is exactly what I don't want to do.  This guy had Brady 9 points over Garappolo.  I had it 4.  When Brady was announced as playing in GM1, the line moved 4.  That doesn't make me a genius, that just reflects the fact that my numbers have been developed and smoothed out with the betting market as the proving ground for more than a decade.  Even if you don't make numbers by program (I do it with a program base then judgment smoothing), if you've been handicapping for years you should have a good eye for what numbers make sense and which fail the laugh test.

 

Good luck this weekend.

[The Dark Man]

This is fantastic, a great read.

[Big Bear]

good thread.

[Sharp Square]

SOLID !!  

[TNVOLFAN]

Good stuff....thanks

[pokerjoe]

Peyton Manning's adjustment is interesting.  Often a player's rating has to be adjusted with some common sense; an algorithm can form the base number but they have to then be looked at and made sense of.  Peyton's clearly not the player he used to be, but what player is he?  Generally, my numbers are set up to use stats from 2 years back, last year and this year (weighted for recency).  But injuries and team changes, or even coaching changes (with a system change) make that a bad idea for some players.  

 

Peyton is an example.  His decline is pretty noticeable, obv.  But how to put a number on it?  For now I'm using the second half of last year only, with this year, which drops his rating, and thus Denver's, by two full points.  But I'll certainly think about using this year alone.

 

And this is where using the market, using the spreads themselves, can be a guide.  The market already said I valued Denver too highly in GM1 (which fortunately came out okay for my Denver bet, but winning or losing individual bets is not the measure of handicapping success).  The market says I still rate Denver too highly tonight and that's after dropping my rating (and two points drop is huge; usually ratings change by very small increments).  

 

Every bet is an argument with the market.  If we never disputed the market's assessment, we'd never make bets (I mean as handicappers; as line value grinders, otoh, we basically do the opposite: we never dispute the market, we use the market to bet against off-market numbers).

 

But as handicappers we should at least respect the market and use it as a check on ourselves, and learn from it.  We can't say "the market is always right," or else we'd make no bets.  But we shouldn't say "I'm always right" or we'll end up broke.  It takes a balance and constant adjustment.

 

For now I think I'm probably on Denver tonight.

 

Also, I'm not giving out picks here but I have a twitter account, truepokerjoe, which I'll use for late injury updates and bets, if anyone wants to follow.  And I will try to post ratings on major late injury announcements here.

[pokerjoe]

Not because Den covered am I saying this, but the teams last night played about even in yardage and first downs and both had a turnover returned for a TD.  The game rated a coin flip to me and I think played out that way, though bizarre at the end.

 

 The thing is, for the line to be right, you'd have had to say Manning is terrible.  About equal to most practice squad QBs.  And there's no evidence of that.  He's worse than before, but again, for the line to have made sense he would have to be off the charts bad.

 

Tonight I played cards while watching the game and almost everyone was on KC and of course no one thought about what it was they were betting, which is that they were betting Peyton is now the worst QB in the league.  He isn't.  But if you don't make numbers, you can't see that.  If you do make numbers you can play with them and figure out just how bad to you have to rate him for the line to make sense, and then is it possible he's that bad?

 

With Tenn, it's the opposite.  For that line to make sense you'd have to rate Mariota equal to Aaron Rodgers.  That's fine if that's what you want to do, but at least recognize that's what you're doing.

 

With TB, it's like Denver tonight: for that line to make sense, Winston has to be unbelievably low rated.  Worse than practice squad players.

[Mofome]

Excellence

[pokerjoe]

Def like TB if WR Mike Evans makes it back.  I've already bet them but if Evans is back AND I can still get +10, I'll re-hit.

 

Fading Tenn, with Manziel taking over for McCown, is less appetizing. But if the betting gets donkalicious Sunday with square money pushing it up to +3 -120 (that's as high as I can see it going; I don't think it'll get that high), I'll take it.  But I doubt that will happen. But then again, CRIS opened this game Cle -4 and it's now Cle +2 (CRIS and Coast).

[Mofome]

Cromartie

D Walker

Alshon

Hilton

 

 

All 50:50 or less this weekend

[pokerjoe]

Sorry I once again didn't get back here to update injury impacts on game day, but FB weekends are too busy. And there isn't that much interest in actual handicapping, lol, which I already knew, so I'll prob stop with these threads. But at least maybe I got across the idea that actual handicapping is fun.  It's like crossword puzzles you can bet on.

 

It is nice to see that all the QB overreactions this weekend played out right, for handicappers.  Peyton and Jameis aren't practice squad level QBs and Mariota isn't quite elite yet and there's money to be made capping this game straight out old school.

[vegaseagles]

awesome thread...getting  more lenghly by the week

[RDTrains]

Keep on with your thoughts, they are appreciated.

[pokerjoe]

T.Y. Hilton is in tonight, but maybe limited. He's worth a full point to the Colts if fully playing. BUT: the line has dropped on the Colts. 

 

I have the Jets at +7 already.  It's down to 6 at sharp joints, but 6' is still WA.  Even with Hilton back fully playing, I'd say 6' was still marginally +EV. If he's not full healthy, I'd say 6' was absolutely +EV.  But I'm not a tout with inside-the-locker-room info, so I don't know about Hilton.  I'd call it a lean on the Jets still even at 6'.

 

Good luck.

 

I'm not a tout at all (I've been posting on the forums for about 15 years, without any claims that I've ever hustled anyone in the least), but I do now post picks, on twitter @truepokerjoe  

 

It's easier for me to post them there than here because I can do it from my phone, real time, which is, duh, how I bet.

 

I signed up for twitter to keep speed on injury info.  But as soon as twitterverse finds out you're into sportsbetting, you'll get flooded with touts "following" you and sending messages like "Hey, you want to make some money? Send me some and ..."

 

So now I'm posting free plays just to fuck with these assholes.

 

Of course it's a weird mentality behind customers of touts.  Why would you pay some random to flip coins for you?  Just to avoid taking responsibility for you're own flipping?  The customers probably tell themselves "Hey, the guy's record is documented!" or whatever, but I can't believe they really fall for that shit.  And if they do, maybe they should be parted from their money.

 

Anyway, I'll be back in a few days with impact values for the big injuries this weekend.