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Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (3-3-0)
88* (2-7-0)
88* NFL (1-2-0)

 

 

Red Sheet

TULANE 52 - Uab 20 - (12:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Tulane minus 20, and is now minus 20½. A year ago, the Green
Wave, which had been a perennial losing proposition, turned things around in a big way, coming from
a horrendous 2-10 record in '21, into a bowl eligible situation. That improvement is unmatched in
college history, namely a 9-game improvement over the previous season. Not only did the Greenies
qualify for post-season play, but actually took on a seemingly unstoppable opponent, none other than
Southern California, in the Cotton Bowl, no less, only to trail, 45-30, with 4:30 left. However, behind
QB Pratt, they took the Trojans, 46-45 on the final play, winding up at #9 in the nation, in the final poll.
This season began with a 20-pt win over SoAlabama, only to lose Pratt vs OleMiss, with an 0-3 run to
follow. However, he is now back (18-of-23 LW). Blazers returned only 7 starters from LY's roster, &
are currently on a 3-9 ATS run. The again unnoticed 'Wave (& Pratt) should be able to do this right..
RATING: TULANE 89

IOWA 25 - Michigan State 7 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Iowa minus 11½, and is still minus 11½. Sure, we took note of the
fact that a team which weekly faces a formidable task in attempting to cross the goal line, has been
installed as a double digit chalk this week. And so it goes with the Hawkeyes of Iowa, which now sit at
105th in scoring offense, as well as 128th in total "O". However, a totally different story emerges,
defensively, holding 13-of-16 opponents to less than 15 pts, but that didn't happen in last week's
shutout loss to PennSt, while eking out 4 FDs. That only serves as an incentive to get back on track
quickly, with the Spartans of MichiganSt just the right tonic, as they have a 72-16 pt deficit over the
past 2 weeks (-32½ pts ATS), while showing signs of late season malaise. We would be surprised if
the Spartans can do much with the Hawkeye defense. It all ads up, so we lay the 11½ in this situation.
RATING: IOWA 89

Penn State 49 - NORTHWESTERN 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 26, and is still minus 26. As you may
surmise, there sees a paucity of line changes this particular week. The Lions have been a study in
consistency, with their current 9-0-1 ATS run (+122½ pts), which has moved them up to the #6 spot
in this week's polls. Try ranking 1st, 13th, 1st, & 4th in total, rushing, passing, & scoring "D". That
being the case, the 'Cats & their 100th ranked "O" should resemble "lambs to the slaughter" here.
Cats have been held below 15 pts in 19-of-13 games, & shouldn't be able to keep the Lions in sight.
RATING: PENN STATE 88

Louisville 44 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 24 - (7:00 Friday) -- Line opened at Louisville minus 3½, and is now minus
3. Sure, we have a minuscule spread in this contest, which tells us that we have very little to choose
between them. However, the Cards have been a balance machine in the early going with RY & PY
amounts of 227, 344, 247, 346, 184, 238, 194, & 388. The Wolfpack is on a 3-13 spread run, & are
the epitome of the "streak". Is the wrong team favored here? It certainly seems as if that is correct.
RATING: LOUISVILLE 88

Michigan 31 - NEBRASKA 23 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Michigan minus 18, and is still minus 18. Well, Harbaugh has
said farewell to his suspension, missing 3 games for the 2nd-ranked Wolverines, who rank 3rd, 12th,
7th, & 1st in total, rushing, passing, & scoring, defensively, of course, with a 127-23 pt edge. However, quality of opposition cannot be dismissed. 'Huskers have posted 222, 224, & 315 RYs since
their opening day loss to Minnesota. Enough fire power to stay under the spread in this contest.
RATING: NEBRASKA 88

PHILADELPHIA 27 - Washington 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 7, and is now minus 8½. So much
for the theory of bucking the previous year's Super Bowl loser. Eagles have laid waste to that one,
with this year's 3-0 SU & ATS start, not fooling around. Check LW's 25-3 4th quarter lead over the
Bucs. Hurts another rushing & passing TDs. Relentless. Sure, the Commanders catch Philly off a
short week, due to Eagle/Buc Monday Night clash. But it makes little or no difference. Fly Eagles Fly!
RATING: PHILADELPHIA 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Tennessee, Texas, California, Oregon -- NFL: San Francisco, Chicago, Giants

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Ben Fawkes
@BFawkes22
·
5h
I think it's safe to say the public likes the Chiefs tonight:

96% of bets, 84% of 💰 on Chiefs -8.5 at 
@CaesarsSports
 

95% of bets, 92% of 💵 on Chiefs -7.5 at 
@FanaticsBook


91% of bets, 87% of 💸 on Chiefs -9 at 
@DKSportsbook
 

90% bets, 87% of 💲on Chiefs -8.5 at 
@BetMGM

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Newsletter Tracking (through 10/02/2023)

The records here will reflect the lines listed in the newsletters at the time the plays were published. This is for the rated plays, the high-ranking plays, and any type of play worth tracking. There’s no reason to keep track of every bottom-tier or “recommended” play; it’s not worth the work.

Sometimes the newsletters will cheat a little by claiming a different common or later line if it turns a loss into a push or otherwise boosts their record. I’ll usually be able to note what happened to explain the discrepancy.

I’ll also highlight particularly good or bad weekends or short-term runs. I will not include picks from newsletter issues that we don’t get in time.

Some of these will be great follows, some will be great fades, but some won’t show a significant pattern either way.

This week I'll start color-coding the especially hot and cold newsletter plays. Rough week for most of the newsletters.

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA (0-0-0)
NFL (0-0-0)

CKO
11* (0-0-0)
10* (0-0-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA (rated college plays 0-3-0 this week)
5* (3-2-0)
4* (4-1-0)
3* (3-2-0)
Upset pick (1-4-0)
Betcha Didn’t Know (3-3-1)
Awesome Angle (2-3-0)
Incredible Stat (5-0-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (rated NFL plays 3-0-0 this week)
5* (2-2-0)
4* (2-2-0)
3* (3-1-0)

Pointwise NCAA (2-6-0 overall this week)
1* (7-3-0)
2* (2-2-1)
3* (2-3-0)
4* (6-4-0)
5* (4-6-0)

Pointwise NFL (4-1 overall this week)
3* (3-1-0)
4* (4-4-0)
5* (7-1-0)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (2-3-0)
3* (3-7-0)
2* (4-6-0)
Dog POW (1-3-1)
Tech POW (2-1-0)
Revenge POW (3-1-0)
Situational POW (2-3-0)
Series POW (2-1-0)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (2-2-0)
3* (0-4-0)
2* (2-2-0)
4* Pro Angle (0-4-0)
3* o/u (3-1-0)

Power Plays NCAA (unbelievable 0-9 combined this week)
4.5* (4-10-0)
4* (12-12-0)

Power Plays NFL
4* (3-1-0)

Red Sheet (1-5 overall this week)
90* (0-0-0)
89* (3-5-0)
88* (3-9-0)
88* NFL (1-3-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Best Bets (7-7-1) (0-3 this week)
NFL Best Bets (6-2-0) (2-0 this week)

Winning Points NCAA
4* (2-3-0)
3* (1-4-0)

Winning Points NFL
4* (2-2-0)
3* (2-2-0)

King’s Totals Tipsheet
3* (2-1-0)
2* (7-2-0)
Team Total (3-5-0)

Gold Sheet Key Releases
NCAA (18-16-0)
NFL (15-6-0)

Power’s Picks NCAA
3* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
1* (0-0-0)

Power’s Picks NFL
3* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
1* (0-0-0)

Inside the Press Box NCAA (1-8-1 overall this week)
Phil’s Best Bets (10-13-2)
Computer Best Bets (6-17-1)

Inside the Press Box NFL
Phil’s Best Bets (3-5-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)

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Red Sheet


MICHIGAN 49 - Minnesota 10 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Michigan minus 191/2, and is still minus 191/2. Wolverines must have felt like "being on the outside, looking in" over the first month of this season, what with HC Harbaugh's suspension resulting in nothing games vs nothing foes. Well, all of that quickly ended in last week's encounter with Nebraska, which simply served as a true opening day lamb to the slaughter, vs the 2nd-ranked Wolves. And it didn't take long, as Michigan methodically slew the Cornhusker, with 14-0 edges in the 1st & 2nd quarters, leading 45-0, before Nebraska managed to avoid the shutout, with a 74-yd TD run in the last 4:17. Was that just a 1-game fiesta for Michigan, or just the start of a magical season? Well, 18 returning starters have something to say about that, & with this one against Minnesota in the "Little Brown Jug" true dedication couldn't be a higher peak, & should do it up right.
RATING: MICHIGAN 89


Central Florida 38 - KANSAS 31 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 3, and is now minus 2. Just a few years ago, the Knights were one of the best propositions on the board, piling up an 18-6 spread record in the '17 & '18 seasons, with an accompanying 25-1 SU log. Are always a threat to regain that spread status, & surely have had their moments, with winning SU seasons pretty much a given, as their 60-19 SU run continues, with an offense that ranks 4th, 3rd, 15th, & 19th in total, rushing, passing, & scoring in the nation. And note an enviously balanced offense (260 RYpg, 304 PYpg).. Thus, a force to be reckoned with. In this one, they take on a Jayhawk squad which has had the air taken from its balloon, in last week's drubbing vs Texas, with a 400-yd deficit, along with the fact that OklahomaSt occupies the on deck position. The bounceback factor edge is difficult to firmly peg, but the Knights seem to have been in the caldron enough times for all important psyche edge. Wrong team favored.
RATING: CENTRAL FLORIDA 89


GEORGIA 24 - Kentucky 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 141/2, and is still minus 141/2. No questioning a huge bit of anxiety in bucking the national champs. Sure, the 'Dawgs may be somewhat in the same situation as Michigan (see above), in going through the motions, before the season gets into full swing. However, Georgia is going it without QB Bennett, who was its linchpin over the past few years, & has yet to cover, while the 'Cats are weekly profiteers. UK should keep this one under the spread.
RATING: KENTUCKY 88


Washington State 41 - UCLA 34 - (3:00) -- Line opened at UCLA minus 31/2, and is still minus 31/2. Well, the Pac12 is certainly going out with a bang, as multiple weekly barnburners have ruled the day, which, for the Bruins of Ucla, seems like another day at the office. However, the Uclans came from 270 RYpg in their first 3 games, to just 9 RYs in loss to Utah. The Cougars of WashingtonSt rank 5th in both total & scoring offense, with QB Ward now at 13/0 with 1,498 PYs. And Coogs are 12-2 ATS vs the Bruins. Also note that Ucla is on a 1-6 spread run. This lives up to its reputation. We'll grab the FG spot..
RATING: WASHINGTON STATE 88


Fresno State 41 - WYOMING 24 - (8:00) -- Line opened at FresnoState minus 61/2, and is now minus 51/2. It looks as if the current state of affairs hasn't done much to move the line in this one. As we wrote earlier on Pointwise: "Cowboys couldn't shake NewMexico". For all of the factors to consider, that statement may be the most influential, as the Lobos have seemingly never been difficult to escape, just what the Bulldogs have had little trouble doing. And note that Fresno did cover its last road game by 26 points.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 88


ARIZONA CARDINALS 22 - Cincinnati 17 -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 8 and is now minus 3. Such a huge NFL line shift is rare indeed, & just about always the result of a key injury, & they don't get much more key than Joe Burrow going at half speed. No doubt the "smart" money will buck such an amateurish reaction, but is it really "smart"? Remember, this marks the Cards' 3rd hoster of the season, with upset wins over the Giants & the Cowboys (25-pt cover) coming in the first 2. Three times the charm.
RATING: ARIZONA 88


NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Wake Forest, Maryland, Texas A&M -- NFL: Miami, New Orleans, & Green Bay

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