Flying Dutchman Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 I must deal with this when I have more time, because it's important stuff, but for now I'll just say that I don't think market events are independent. Markets are not roulette wheels. Markets have memory. Markets may have due factors that accumulate, have a tipping point, and break like a dam bursting. But it's a subject that has to be written about very carefully to have any chance of avoiding massive stupidity, so it's on my list of things to post about some other time, lol. Yes, I believe this also. I thought a one time it could be weather as you sometime get a massive front moving through the east coast when there are a lot of NFL games going on, for example. Then the black swan hits on a day that is clear and mild. clunk. it might be like Quantum mechanics. No one understand that either. Maybe the vibe is tunneling through everyone like an increase in neutrinos or negative ions or "dark energy"...wtf is that? There is some truly weird shit going on in science these days. That fvcker Einstein opened up a can of worms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 Dutch, black swan? I am a little faded help me out, here. You're typing like shakespeare. Please simplify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory This'll do a better job of it than I.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 Dutch that is deep shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 Dutch that is deep shit. unfortunately, it is the realm in which we sports bettors operate. You think "bad beat"...I think "the universe is fvcking with me again" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 Dutch, easy with that universe shit. I can't fucking take it. For me, I'm a trend bettor more than anything. And some people say that's a losing angle. But I try to find like 21-0, 14-0, ect trends. And it's not like, if ryan braun eats a bologna sandwich the brewers cover, it's more relative to the game, if you know what i mean. Dutch, what are your feelings on trends? How do you feel they effect a game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 I have to agree that betting 1% unless your bankroll is 50k or better seems ridiculous. The majority of gamblers gamble for action and that just seems so tedious. Let's say a guy has 2k and EVERY WEEK of the 18 week NFL regular season he goes an impossible 3-1. His bet size of 20 dollars won't even increase to 30 dollars and his overall profit will be under 1000 dollars. Instead if watching those four games he would have been better off working a part time job at the lowest salary the US federal govt allows. At $7.25 an hour he would have produced double the profit of winning an impossible 75% of his games. I would argue that it is ridiculous to bet more than 1% unless you really know what you are doing. Most people don’t have an edge in sports investing and betting more than 1% will only erode the roll quicker. IMO, good trading is pretty much tedious, I enjoy it but I wouldn’t call it exciting. If guys just want a rush and enjoy putting cash on a game to make it more exciting, more power to them. This advice isn’t meant for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 Some people need' date=' use and excel with the numbers. Others see the ball and hit the ball. [/quote'] Some do both :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 I would argue that it is ridiculous to bet more than 1% unless you really know what you are doing. Most people don’t have an edge in sports investing and betting more than 1% will only erode the roll quicker. IMO, good trading is pretty much tedious, I enjoy it but I wouldn’t call it exciting. If guys just want a rush and enjoy putting cash on a game to make it more exciting, more power to them. This advice isn’t meant for them. it might erode the roll quicker but at least it is going to provide some entertainment value. on someone's deathbed i can't imagine them saying "i wish i would've only bet $10 on that packers game 20 years ago instead of 100". i would argue that the average joe should be taking a bonus and betting 50-100% of the bankroll, it's the best way of making money by hitting 50%...heck the average joe can hit 40% and still be ahead with that strategy! flying dutchman (and others), if you don't mind, how much per year have you made over the last 10 years on sports betting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 it might erode the roll quicker but at least it is going to provide some entertainment value. on someone's deathbed i can't imagine them saying "i wish i would've only bet $10 on that packers game 20 years ago instead of 100". I hear you loud and clear but I am not thinking in terms of entertainment as I don't consider it entertainment. For guys that do, I don't think BR Management is a high priority so they can bet whatever they want as long as they stay within their means. I enjoy not stressing when I lose 6 bets in a row because each individual result is inconsequential; it would only be a 6% drawdown. If I were to invest 5% under the same scenario it would be a 30% drawdown and I would need a 43% gain just to get back to break even; unacceptable IMO. i would argue that the average joe should be taking a bonus and betting 50-100% of the bankroll' date=' it's the best way of making money by hitting 50%...heck the average joe can hit 40% and still be ahead with that strategy![/quote'] The average Joe should dump the bonus :) JK, I understand what you are saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 i hear you gamebred, but you're going to need the same number of wins/losses to get back to breakeven whether it's 1% or 5%. it's a good discussion, i always like talking about what people consider their "bankroll" and what their perceived edges are. the bankroll argument is like married couples where money is "his and hers", i never fully agree that some money is set aside for gambling/sports investing, and the rest is for living expenses/savings. i prefer to think of it as all money in the same pot, if my wife spends $1000 on clothes then why wouldn't that affect me? especially in a community property state lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedge Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 i hear you gamebred, but you're going to need the same number of wins/losses to get back to breakeven whether it's 1% or 5%. it's a good discussion, i always like talking about what people consider their "bankroll" and what their perceived edges are. the bankroll argument is like married couples where money is "his and hers", i never fully agree that some money is set aside for gambling/sports investing, and the rest is for living expenses/savings. i prefer to think of it as all money in the same pot, if my wife spends $1000 on clothes then why wouldn't that affect me? especially in a community property state lol Are you married Mike? Most marriages split assets this way: What's hers is hers and what's his is hers too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 Are you married Mike? Most marriages split assets this way: What's hers is hers and what's his is hers too. gladly my marriage isn't that way, but she hasn't worked in 13 years so there's really no "hers" in our case. when we first got married i would look at the credit card bills and get irritated, i quit doing that pretty quickly when i realized it wasn't doing any good. people are pretty much going to do what they want, marriages fail because one person thinks the other one is going to listen to them and do what they say... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brutus Buckeye Posted August 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 I would argue that it is ridiculous to bet more than 1% unless you really know what you are doing. Most people don’t have an edge in sports investing and betting more than 1% will only erode the roll quicker. It's hard to disagree with this post. But a lot of bettors have delusions of grandeur and dream of making it big. Only betting 1% of their bankroll is what seems tedious. They don't have the discipline, so they go broke and start all over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Dutch, easy with that universe shit. I can't fucking take it. For me, I'm a trend bettor more than anything. And some people say that's a losing angle. But I try to find like 21-0, 14-0, ect trends. And it's not like, if ryan braun eats a bologna sandwich the brewers cover, it's more relative to the game, if you know what i mean. Dutch, what are your feelings on trends? How do you feel they effect a game? We use trends...but we combine 'em up in a very statistical way...99.99% of folks don't know how to combine stuff correctly...even the classical Frequentist Statisticians don't know how. Bayesian Statisticians do... ...when you boil it down, everything we cook out of a db is a "trend" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 BTW, when I say "universe" I mean there is some practical scientific reason that this shit happens. I just don't know enough to get my finger on it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 It's hard to disagree with this post. But a lot of bettors have delusions of grandeur and dream of making it big. Only betting 1% of their bankroll is what seems tedious. They don't have the discipline, so they go broke and start all over again. Going for broke is not the desired result, but it can happen if you get too loose. For me it would be frivolous to take 4 years off from gambling so that I could save a huge BR (100 thousand) that 1% would make any sense. That's why i take step outs and bet large for certain wagers. And you're right, some guys want to win a few thousand with a starting BR of only 1 thousand or even 500 at a time. For me, I cap a game for 2-3 hours. No way in hell I'm putting 10 dollars on a game after putting in that work. I'd rather quit than bet 5 or 10 dollars a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 i hear you gamebred' date=' but you're going to need the same number of wins/losses to get back to breakeven whether it's 1% or 5%. it's a good discussion, i always like talking about what people consider their "bankroll" and what their perceived edges are.[/quote'] Technically you are correct in that one would need 6.6 wins in each case to get back to BE but you also have to bet a much higher percentage of your roll when down 30% to have those bets get you back to BE. Let’s say we have an 11K roll and are betting into -110 lines ($110 to win $100 at 1% stakes and $550 to win $500 at 5% stakes). 6 losses in a row at 1% stakes would find you down -$660 leaving you with $10,340 and a $110 wager would now constitute 1.06% of your roll. 6 losses in a row at 5% stakes would find you down -$3,300; leaving you with $7,700 and a $550 dollar position would now constitute 7.14% of your roll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 It's hard to disagree with this post. But a lot of bettors have delusions of grandeur and dream of making it big. Only betting 1% of their bankroll is what seems tedious. They don't have the discipline' date=' so they go broke and start all over again.[/quote'] Yes. Most recreational bettors I know are under-capitalized and overestimate their edge; dangerous combination. 1% sounds boring but good trading is boring; in a sense. Furthermore, if you can’t make money off a small BR I doubt you will be able to make money off a large BR. It boils down to ones risk profile and people have to decide what makes sense for them. Going for broke is not the desired result, but it can happen if you get too loose. For me it would be frivolous to take 4 years off from gambling so that I could save a huge BR (100 thousand) that 1% would make any sense. That's why i take step outs and bet large for certain wagers. And you're right, some guys want to win a few thousand with a starting BR of only 1 thousand or even 500 at a time. For me, I cap a game for 2-3 hours. No way in hell I'm putting 10 dollars on a game after putting in that work. I'd rather quit than bet 5 or 10 dollars a game. Why would you need to take 4 years off? Why not slowly grow the roll and skill build over that time? It took me 5 years to create anything resembling a “respectable†roll and I routinely bet $5 to $10 a game when I first got serious about this; that is the discipline. I think the 1% rule makes sense for rolls smaller than 100k but please keep in mind that when betting into -110 lines, you would need a $110,000 BR to risk $1,110 to win $1,000. I am not saying that you shouldn’t take your shots to grow a smaller roll into a larger one; that is actually your optimum strategy. Just saying I think your typical exposure should be light. Just my opinion and every trader needs to ultimately answer this question for themselves. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fecal Tornado Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Gonna Flat bet this year stay away from Parlays, we'll see if it does me better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucky Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 I'm ok with a % of bankroll. That makes a lot of sense but I am just not that solid on precisely determining the exact edge I have on any given bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Reduce your flat bet amount and bet 3-team parlays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucky Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Sam, do you have some stale lines you attack? If you can beat 3 team parlays - you have really found something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Bucky , most books have tightened up but with the right payouts You could put your last 30,000 str8 bets in a hat... draw them out randomly 3 at a time and bet a 3leg parlay with them - continue until they are all gone Recalculate your win/loss $$$ You will win more money with the parlays than str8 up bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Reduce your flat bet amount and bet 3-team parlays When I first started gambling all I bet was parlays. It was feast or famine and was very tough when I would consistently win over .500 but still lose. Here's a clip from an article on a site called bettingresource (they also advise the standard 1% per play)... Avoid the parlays, teasers, props etc that most books like to promote (it increases their own profit margins, of course). If you like the Broncos to cover the spread on a particular day, and the Bears and Falcons as well, bet them all individually. If you win all three, that's great, but winning two of three is much more likely than sweeping the card. And two out of three produces a profit. Even winning just one of the three bets is not a disastrous result. Sure, it's not a winning day, but for the three bets you made, at least you got a return on one of them. When you get into the habit of parlays and teasers, there's no result possible except winning all three bets that will allow you to get any return on your investment at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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