pokerjoe Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Jason Simbal of CG made it a swing of 6 pts, but over pick'em, so essentiall 5 pts, and two of those pts swung over were the 1, so, essentially, 4' pts. I made the Big Ben impact at -4 pts. Kenny White of Linesmakers made it 3' pts. But John Lester of CRIS made it 7 pts. Two things about CRIS's outlier estimate. Maybe he, also, is going by pointspread (push frequency) adjustment, not generic point values, and also maybe he's anticipating what the public will bet. And I'll say this: if you think Roethlisberger is as good as he's been the first 3 games of the season, and the Vick is as bad as he seemed coming off the bench in Game 4, that injury impact makes sense. But Big Ben, much as I love him, has been hot early, and Vick, much as I don't love him, now should be better prepared. I bet Baltimore -2.5 -110 (all my picks go out on twitter @truepokerjoe so they can be issued in real-time from my phone) http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=432714 "He's worth a full seven points in our eyes," says John Lester of BookMaker.eu http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/article/4656645-super-bowl-50-odds-vegas-ravens-vs-steelers-line-spread-roethlisberger-injury-vick Kenny White, a Linemakers analyst and one of the most respected oddsmakers in Las Vegas, said the adjustment to the betting line from Roethlisberger to Vick is about 3.5 points. CG Technology was looking at making Pitt a 3.5- or 4-point favorite before Roethlisberger's injury, according to vice president of risk management Jason Simbal. But when opening lines were posted after Sunday’s action, Baltimore -2.5 was the number hung at most shops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Jason Simbal of CG made it a swing of 6 pts, but over pick'em, so essentially 5 pts, and two of those pts swung over were the 1, so, essentially, 4' pts. Actually, considering the game's low total, maybe he's making the impact 5 pts. But I'm not look at push charts, so ... anyway, you get the idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Man Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 What do you make it on total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoke Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yea what about total Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 I made the impact -4 points there, too, and it adjusted my total estimate from 47' to 43', so no bet arises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 That totals adjustment might seem low, but here's the thing: Injury impacts on totals aren't as straightforward as they are for sides. It's all about points per drive and minutes per drive adjustments. Pitt will suffer in the first category but increase in the second. But I don't want to give out exact formulas, so ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Go here for some stats http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-points-per-drive-statistics/2015/ It's a starting place. Kind of a weak one, but no one with better stuff is going to go public. It's something to work with, anyway. Bear in mind that this guy's stats aren't SOS adjusted, which greatly weakens their usefulness. Also they aren't (I don't think, anyway) adjusted for initial field position. This early in the season especially, recovering a fumble on an opponent's one yard line and then scoring, warps your points per drive rate, and the reverse of that also unfairly impacts stats, so some important adjustments have to be made. And actual points per drive isn't the best way to go. Expected yards per play, expected average field position, expected plays per minute roughly calcs (adjusted for opp def strength) into expected points per drive, with drives per game varying depending upon the opponent's offensive pace (each team's pace impacts the other team's expected number of drives), all wrap up into the equation, along with some other shit I'm not even going to talk about. So then fig Big Ben's absence impact on ypp and ppm and even opp expected field pos. I think it's possible to gut-cap your way through sides picks. I don't think you can often do that with totals. Totals is math. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 good stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Man Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 this guy is a must read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Vick still sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbbb Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I made the impact -4 points there, too, and it adjusted my total estimate from 47' to 43', so no bet arises.Not a bad adjustment for total estimate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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