Sam Odom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 I am of the opinion that even a close win with a heavy ML play is a loss in theory. Sure, you win your money back, but the sweat alone is the punishment and teaching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripp Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Depends on how you look at it or what your motivation is with your gambling. A lot of people, either consciously or subconsciously, gamble for the exact thrill or sweat that you are talking about. They enjoy the ride, its like a high. If you are doing this strictly to grind out profit and see it almost as a second job (or even first/only job) then you probably aren't the type to "sweat" out your bets anyways. The ones who i take at their word as real pros from the forums simply put in their bets based on numbers and let the chips fall where they may while looking for other profitable opportunities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brayden11 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Forum lawyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 False. You played the ML because you were predicting the winner. You succeeded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 btw-- that isnt from Sammy should have put quotes on it and given attribution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elko Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Sammy makes a good point here. You should track ML bets with with action points and frankly if your MLs don't finish above the average sides line, this prop is a long term LOSER. Sammy is a razor in a box of butter knives. looking at you Kinger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daringly Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Sammy makes a good point here. You should track ML bets with with action points and frankly if your MLs don't finish above the average sides line, this prop is a long term LOSER. Sammy is a razor in a box of butter knives. looking at you Kinger. Really? So you took an NBA fav at -130 and the fair price was -120, and your bet won with a 1-point win, you think that was a bad bet? Action point grading is a tool when you use it correctly. It is a poor tool for MLs, especially with margins of victory close to 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoke Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Sammy with a good thread finally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bear Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 I am of the opinion that even a close win with a heavy ML play is a loss in theory. Sure, you win your money back, but the sweat alone is the punishment and teaching.i am confused. IMO a win is a win and a loss is a loss. I know moral victories don't mean a damn thing. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoke Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 i am confused. IMO a win is a win and a loss is a loss. I know moral victories don't mean a damn thing. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.point is hurts your health bear. Not worth added stress. sammy needs fiber to push his shit out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daringly Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Flip the -120 and -130 (you bet -120 vs fair price of -130, won bet by 1.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daringly Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 point is hurts your health bear. Not worth added stress. sammy needs fiber to push his shit out Why do you watch the game, unless betting in-game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bear Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 ML's of -200 or more I always put in a parlay. I would never play anything over -150 in a straight bet. Sometimes it all boils down to whether you are willing to reach out and grab the low hanging fruit. i blame greed for laying points. Sometimes i think it's better to take a lower payout in exchange for a higher probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bear Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Why do you watch the game, unless betting in-game?its fun IMO. Yeah it can be stressful but its also exciting! i love the adrenaline rush. A big bet can make even the dullest of days seem worthwhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daringly Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 ML's of -200 or more I always put in a parlay. I would never play anything over -150 in a straight bet. Sometimes it all boils down to whether you are willing to reach out and grab the low hanging fruit. i blame greed for laying points. Sometimes i think it's better to take a lower payout in exchange for a higher probability. Would you lay -900 if you thought the bet would win 95% of the time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 It's all about the market and probability........most on forums should know this by now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bear Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 yeah i think so if its a team coached by someone i trust like Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Bill Bellichick etc... however as a general rule i really try not to bet anything over about -600 or -800 and i dont like going that high. I like to stay with games under -500 in most cases. reason being is i have lost some parlays with games -1200 and up and that is a sickening feeling. It just makes me feel like a complete idiot b/c it adds very little to the pay out. I was in full tilt mode on Monday after a brutal sunday and i had a parlay with illinois State ML in college hoops at -1250 Illinois State ended up winning by 1 point on a lay up with 2 seconds left. I was sweating that shit like crazy thinking how dumb i was, to put them in the parlay without doing more research. Most of the time i try to find -300 to -500 favorites where the majority of bettors are taking the points with the dog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Would you lay -900 if you thought the bet would win 95% of the time?many people wouldn't. and i always get criticism for playing big chalks, but it's often a good strategy, mostly because people don't do it. oh no a -300! what they don't realize is that it only has to win 1 out of every 2 times that they don't cover the spread to make the bet a good one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bfo Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 I never thought I would see Daringly debating a Chi Cubs/JavyBaez/Kerry Wood theory on TGF. I guess the forums have come full circle. And for the record definitely agree with the Daringly/Milwaukee Mike crowd on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elko Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Really? So you took an NBA fav at -130 and the fair price was -120, and your bet won with a 1-point win, you think that was a bad bet? Action point grading is a tool when you use it correctly. It is a poor tool for MLs, especially with margins of victory close to 0. OK, how'd you know "fair price" was -120? and please don't give me closing line bs. absolutely unworkable in especially in small/immature markets. Action points is a quick tool (one in a box of many) to see if your ML picks are doing well. If your long term action points misalign on ML plays, more than likely have a problem. We grade every result into 5 boxes (in the main): - loss, variance in game caused loss- loss, variance not an issue- unclear, could have gone either way, which usually captures those close games.- win, variance not an issue- win, variance helped winthere are a few more boxes which also include draws (pushes) and the grading reflects more of a shades of gray than shown here, but these are the main areas. Two centre boxes are the key. Win box must be larger than loss box to show an advantage. the win ratio here is key. forensic examination of past plays are important to see if your selection/modeling is on track. BTW, absolutely critical in NFL where chaotic plays (TOs/etc) cover about 30-40% of scoring variance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Man Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Post 15 + Post 16 (establish favorible market >1/9) = a great play, Post 15 is a good play. Who sweats plays?? No veteran capper who sticks to sound capping strategy, buys good numbers exhibits good money mgmt. should be sweating anything. Got fukk all to do with what transpires on the field. I rarely watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoke Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Why do you watch the game, unless betting in-game?I used to have to be able to watch every game I bet or I wouldn't have action on it. Nowadays I am fine with checking the scores on my phone or waiting till next morning to check results. I don't bet for the action anymore. I bet to make money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chickadee Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 many people wouldn't. and i always get criticism for playing big chalks, but it's often a good strategy, mostly because people don't do it. oh no a -300! what they don't realize is that it only has to win 1 out of every 2 times that they don't cover the spread to make the bet a good one Bridge jumping is a valid strategy. Not sure who disagreed with you but maybe I have not paid enough attention to notice. Are you still writing spy novels Justin7? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Post 15 + Post 16 (establish favorible market >1/9) = a great play, Post 15 is a good play. Who sweats plays?? No veteran capper who sticks to sound capping strategy, buys good numbers exhibits good money mgmt. should be sweating anything. Got fukk all to do with what transpires on the field. I rarely watch Good post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daringly Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Bridge jumping is a valid strategy. Not sure who disagreed with you but maybe I have not paid enough attention to notice. Are you still writing spy novels Justin7? Still doing some writing. Publishing academic papers. I have one coming out on Spygaate II in a few months (yes, the Patriots are still cheating and have won 17 games more than they "should have"). Mostly sports betting though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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