GradyFuson Posted October 25, 2014 Report Share Posted October 25, 2014 Sorry it's a little late but, Here are my 4 different parlays today: [TABLE=cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] 1 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] 2 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] 3 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] 4 [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #bec0bf] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] nebraska [/TD] [TD] -17 [/TD] [TD] nebraska [/TD] [TD] -17 [/TD] [TD] north texas [/TD] [TD] +19 [/TD] [TD] nebraska [/TD] [TD] -17 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] north texas [/TD] [TD] +19 [/TD] [TD] utsa [/TD] [TD] -10 [/TD] [TD] falcons (nfl) [/TD] [TD] +6 [/TD] [TD] arkansas [/TD] [TD] -24 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] utsa [/TD] [TD] -10 [/TD] [TD] arkansas [/TD] [TD] -24 [/TD] [TD] missouri [/TD] [TD] -21 [/TD] [TD] c michigan [/TD] [TD] -3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] arkansas [/TD] [TD] -24 [/TD] [TD] falcons (nfl) [/TD] [TD] +6 [/TD] [TD] temple [/TD] [TD] +10 [/TD] [TD] missouri [/TD] [TD] -21 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Wish me luck (these numbers are very stale) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GradyFuson Posted October 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2014 Not sure anyone cares.... but... If you were rooting against me you'd be happy to know that North Texas lost by 20 pts, screwing me for two of these. They loose the 2nd half 27-0 WTF!! Does anyone else feel like pre-game steam is pretty accurate fro the 1st half (or even the first few minutes) but not so much for the 2nd half?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted October 26, 2014 Report Share Posted October 26, 2014 Not bad at all, you will get em next time Grady. Grady I am pulling for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GradyFuson Posted October 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2014 Thanks man, pretty horrific day really. But I actually enjoy the math. If I'm doing it right I figure I've got about a 15% chance of winning these but I only need to win 10% to break even. I'm still up from my first weekend but two loosing weeks on these "fun" parlays makes them less fun haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GradyFuson Posted October 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2014 Probably shoulda put this in the "picks and plays" section of the forum. Will do next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Grady, any NFL plays for tomorrow morning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GradyFuson Posted November 3, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 nope. Day off today. Had a shit day yesterday, too hungover to work this sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted November 5, 2014 Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 I'm trying this 3 team tonight. I do not bet parlays unless for entertainment, very difficult to go 3-0. Throwing some darts tonight. 1) Detroit (NHL) +100 2) Golden State -4.5 3) Golden State OV 209.5 (fading indian cowboy) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcmoats Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 love the wings gl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 I'm trying this 3 team tonight. I do not bet parlays unless for entertainment, very difficult to go 3-0. Throwing some darts tonight. 1) Detroit (NHL) +100 Loss 2) Golden State -4.5 Win 3) Golden State OV 209.5 Win 2-1 for a net loss of -0.5 units. This is exactly my point about parlays. You can spend hours capping games but to go 1.000 on 3+ plays is very difficult and easily can negate what would otherwise be a winning day. Wings lost in OT, so yeah that was a real bite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GradyFuson Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 It's all about value. Before the start of the night were you able to calculate your probability of winning? Was each bet 50/50? Is so your probability of winning was only 1/8...you should be prepared to loose that bet 7 out of 8 times, and if your payout is less than +800 than you're gambling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't understand Grady. By default +EV or any wager for that matter is going to be "50/50", you may lose you may win. Not sure what you are saying?? The redwings play for example, the one out of three that i missed was +EV. Isn't that the idea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAUS Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 The redwings play for example, the one out of three that i missed was +EV. What made it a +EV play? BAUS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 What made it a +EV play? BAUS BAUS c'mon guy. New York was -120, won it 4 on 3 in overtime, on a penalty. I thought anything you're not paying vig AKA juice on is considered +EV. +100; -100. PK +100 PK -100..... however you want to word it. Isn't that the whole idea? Value? BAUS it's high vig moneylines and/or high chalk that buries people. BAUS what am I missing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GradyFuson Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 You're not quite understanding what +EV means. You are still paying 20cent juice on that red wings play. If you calculate that fair odds on the red wings should be -110 and you manage to get +100 that is a plus EV play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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