Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 No offense to the rest of TGF but I just think these two could give me my best answer and wanted them to notice the thread so put their name in lights..... I got a hypothetical for you (for me it's true) ....if you knew a guy who could pick every game in cbb ats all season long (4,000 games) ....not flipping over cards or flipping a coin, knows every team and every player country wide......and this guy won 275 units last season betting 1 unit per game....How would you approach getting down on these games and keep in mind were talking almost 200 on a Saturday.. I'm thinking about hiring a personal assistant or skipping Saturday's all together, though a couple days during the week approach 100 games I Think.... Where would you play is among a question I think is most important.......but want all advice.. Thanks.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Ted, you should have as many outs as fundamentally and financially possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 ......5dimes reduced juice for $500(if you're allowed), and Bovada(until booted or limited) for dog plays, Heritage also will offer up some value, plus betting this amount of games will qualify you for a nice rebate every 3 months. When in Vegas,...... snare a few apps, Stations and WH for starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Also, you should attempt to snare a few reputable PPH's in your area, or possibly, even here in Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Teddy what juice was the guy laying? standard or reduced? Assuming standard it looks like your guy hit about 55.5% which is a great season but not sustainable year in and year out. A guy that was that hot for a whole season (4000 plays) is worth a follow, but I would find reduced juice shops (Not BM) and hammer away. As Fish said, get as many books funded as you can and grab the best line you can get. If you followed this guy last year and only played when you got his line or better than you would have likely ended up better than he did. Lets get this phenom signed up at TGF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Thanks Fish....... One reason I'm thinking about skipping Saturday's is the lack of BR....I couldn't place all the vets at once and leave the house I'd be stuck refreshing the ticker and waiting for a game to end to have the funds to play next up... That's a big hurdle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Thanks WVU, now that I look at it that way maybe it's not as awesome as I thought...I didn't think it was possible to do it without the spread but as u say it's about 55.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Have not did for a few months, but believe 5d and Heritage still do transfers, which may help you a little with money management concerns...................and 5d allows 5k free BC payouts every 7 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Thanks WVU, now that I look at it that way maybe it's not as awesome as I thought...I didn't think it was possible to do it without the spread but as u say it's about 55.5%do you know if the guy came up with his own model or system or is he using someone else's? Obviously he isn't capping every game on the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 He does his own write up's on days with like 50 games ....he's a capper believe it or not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 He does his own write up's on days with like 50 games ....he's a capper believe it or notno way does he cap every game on the board. If so he is throwing darts, make no mistake about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 You can't throw 4,000 darts and hit 56.3% (I checked the pct) and the Fact he does write up's on most games tells me he's a capper....dude has skill make no mistake about that jack :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 You can't throw 4,000 darts and hit 56.3% (I checked the pct) and the Fact he does write up's on most games tells me he's a capper....dude has skill make no mistake about that jack :) k but he is throwing darts. I would have no problem booking him or you on all 4000 plays this year. If you told me he was modeling, then I might be reluctant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Only modeling I know is the models I'll be banging after winning 275 units next season....he's a capper cap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 .....being its CBB, it's possible. GL Ted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Thanks Fish.... WVU, all that aside about how he gets there let's just say he gets there.....how would you play it? I'd prefer to bet $500 a game on the 4 days of the week where the schedule is light instead of $25 a game and beting all of them.... With that said do you think it would even out at 56% on any given day or is it too big a risk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Thanks Fish.... WVU, all that aside about how he gets there let's just say he gets there.....how would you play it? I'd prefer to bet $500 a game on the 4 days of the week where the schedule is light instead of $25 a game and beting all of them.... With that said do you think it would even out at 56% on any given day or is it too big a risk?I think you are silly to assume this guy will continue to pick at 56%. With that said, bet what you can afford to lose. Obviously bet more on plays where you are getting the better of the line. If you aren't getting as good a line as he did then pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 It's impossible to hit 56% on every game on the board. The guy will hit 51% max. You can get lucky enough to hit 56% on 4000 games. The guy probably pretty good on selected games, but I doubt he will beat the line next year if you bet every game. What is the guy's verification? You saw him post bets prior to every game and hit this percentage or this is something he claims? I'd bet the $25 and compound the crap of it if I really believed it was real. If you want to bet more, put 3% on every bet until the money runs out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 ACH.....I received every game prior to tip all last year but didn't approach it right so wanted to be prepared this season.... This guy was a well respected capper at therx about 10yrs ago who split to do his own thing and remembered his old pal Ted......everyone loves Ted There is a 'what ever happened to' that includes his name over there every time the season is about to start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 He's probably a good handicapper. If he bets every game, it is very, very unlikely that he is going to win. If he has been posting that long, he is probably pretty good. Does he differentiate between which games he likes the most and all the others? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Yea he does but they hit at the same clip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 He says he will bet the whole sheet he will havr bookies beating down his door to get some of that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 If he is any good, I think there is going to be a difference. If you have confidence in this guy and want to bet his games, I'd forecast that he will probably win abut 54% of his best bets realistically and I'd put 3.3% down on his best bets and let everything slide. If you want to bet other stuff, I'd max 1.5% on his average bets and 1% on most everything else.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 He says he will bet the whole sheet he will havr bookies beating down his door to get some of thatHe won 275 units last season Boat....his door would be left alone by anyone who was knocking it down last season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 If he is any good, I think there is going to be a difference. If you have confidence in this guy and want to bet his games, I'd forecast that he will probably win abut 54% of his best bets realistically and I'd put 3.3% down on his best bets and let everything slide. If you want to bet other stuff, I'd max 1.5% on his average bets and 1% on most everything else..Great advice.....thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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