Guest boatboatboat Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Hard to win 56 percent unless he had multiple outs and was cherry picking #s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Everyone should be a big fan of cherry trees and other assorted fruit trees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Well, Boomaker takes 5k on sides and 3k on ml, so theres 8k * 225 is almost 2million. Here's your problem, he's really saying that not a single spread put up by the bookmakers or bet by the market was with 1pt of being accurate? Every single game has value on one side? That's absurd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 That's a good point rito.....but I don't know if that's what he's really saying, I think he he just puts all the games in front of him and says as a whole he can beat them for 56% and maybe cherry picking results in a lower pct? That's me speculating..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Why does this guy do write ups on games? Is he selling picks and trying to get a business going? When he quotes a line, is it readily obtainable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 That's a good point rito.....but I don't know if that's what he's really saying, I think he he just puts all the games in front of him and says as a whole he can beat them for 56% and maybe cherry picking results in a lower pct? That's me speculating..... There are certainly 56% plays available in ncaab, but i doubt more than 1/3 of the games have +ev lines available at any point. Probably less. I bet around 1 out of every 6 totals and those are way softer than sides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Why does this guy do write ups on games? Is he selling picks and trying to get a business going? When he quotes a line, is it readily obtainable?Great first question that I don't have an answer to.... Second part answer is no... 3rd part if say off the top of my head don't hold me to this....it's 50% at his number and 25% both ways on losing and gaining Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Great first question that I don't have an answer to.... Second part answer is no... 3rd part if say off the top of my head don't hold me to this....it's 50% at his number and 25% both ways on losing and gainingHe must be trying to get something going. That's a lot of work to entertain people and boost your own ego. I can see sending out a line for people to bet if you were wanting to be buddies with people. But a write up? Does he send you multiple emails per day as the lines move or sending one email with the games he likes at the number he says he is betting? Let's see a couple write ups. I'm interested to see this guy's stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 I can only do so much on my phone but I'm going to pull a nooner today so when I get home I'll post one from my iPad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 OK. So here's the problem in following a good handicapper which you probably already know. The handicapper knows the good games and you don't. He bets and gets down and everyone else follows right behind him because there are lots of people that can spot a good line. He sends you that pick and it is no good because it pushes two or three times in a 100 and you lose on the half point or full point two or three times in 100. So his 56% turns to crap. Now you are left with the games that haven't moved. If you've seen a good line, you know how long it lasts. So he's done all this writing up and sending and it is still available so probably not all the great a bet. Then you've got the ones that went the other way and they aren't winners. So when you follow this guy, you've got to lay off the stuff that has moved because that is gone. And bet the others as coinflips and hope it works out. So if we assume that this guy is a 56% handicapper and you can't get 25% of the bets (all the good ones because he is good for a lot less than 25%), we can be pretty sure how this is going to work out for you. So, I would change my advice and say bet 2.2% on his best bets that are available and 1.1% on everything else. This would only be because you have confidence in his ability to beat efficient lines and want to have enough down to produce a good return and not because the picks are likely to win. If you look at Right Angle Sports, they get their picks in early because all the good stuff is gone later and he talks now about how much tougher the market is. His releases are almost all totals now. There are just too many eggheads running models for the lines to be too far off. There is definitely stuff at the open Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Thanks for the comments ACH......I sent you a PM but failed to mention it was a 15 pt win.......not to say I couldn't have sent a write up on a 15pt loser.....just letting u know.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 That's not bad. He sends you one of these on every game? So how did you get hooked up with this guy's emails? You saw him on a forum and asked him to send them to you and he said OK? That's an awfully good friend to go to that much trouble on every game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Do you know who I am? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 I have no idea. I don't read forums much and you said the guy was on RX 10 years ago so I'm just wondered how this thing works and why he is sending these picks with these write ups. Is he a professional gambler now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 No idea who I am? You better axe somebody...... I'll post his 2unit selections in the cbb forum this upcoming season......if I find out you shared the PM I sent then No Soup for you!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 You are Teddy KGB!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 I try my hand at CBB so I will check these picks out but I ain't betting any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 secret PM's (bangs head) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 I will check these picks out but I ain't betting any.Yes you will....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Yes you will.......Maybe if'n you post the write up and I agree. If Heritage keeps trying their hand at openers, I don't need this guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 OK, I read again and filled in the gaps. Looks like tout to me. Claims 56% return. Touts knows and respects Teddy KGB because he knows who he am. Maybe a good mark or reference for future bettors so gave or is giving comp. Tout will not win but will make for interesting thread come CBB season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted June 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Not a tout and Big Ted ain't a mark.....believe what you want I give half a shit.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Hmmmmm.I guess this guy is into pen pal. Well, I gave good advice so good luck to you whatever you do and thanks in advance for the interesting thread to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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