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Aqueduct


rdalert447
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Fri 2/3/17

Race 1

$20 WIN #2 Bank on the Lake 6-1

Kaz Hill Farm is about 15 minutes from my house, so I drive past it often. It's a beautifully maintained property with rolling hills and horses grazing. The horses always look well cared for and happy, so I like to pull for Kazamias. He hasn't been very active recently in NY, but has gone on mini runs in the past. He had a $25 horse the other day, so maybe the rest of his barn is ready to fire? Also playing a $2 DD 2/ALL and a $1 P3 2/ALL/7. $41 bet.

 

Race 3

$20 WIN #6 Dreamboat Annie 5-1

Levine for low profile owners showed some signs of life last week, so I'll stick with it. Forgive the first start for Levine off the long layoff. Horse was competitive last year at higher levels. $2 exbx 6/5,7. $28 bet.

 

Race 4

$20 WIN #4 Bustin Gold 5-1

Wyner doesn't run much or WIN here, but Parx form has been strong all meet. $20 bet,

 

Race 7

$20 WIN #6 Over My Head 20-1

Morrison doesn't run many horses anymore, so I'm convinced playing him on the blind will be a positive subset. $2 exbx 6/5,7. Had to include Farro and Levine. $28 bet.

 

$117 bet so far. Will be back to play the ninth. A couple of interesting ones in there but gotta do a little research.

 

6-91, -$1311

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Race 9

Been going back and forth all day between the 6 and 10. Interesting thing about the 6 is owner Generazio usually uses Clement or Ryerson as her trainer. For some reason she goes with the LOW percentage Sciacca. No idea why. So I opted for the longer price from the hot Baker barn. $20 WIN #10. $2 exbx 6-10.

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  • 1 month later...

Disastrous Inner portion is over, thought I'd revive this and attempt to knock down the figure in the final month:

 

Aqu Race 8

$20 win #2 Brewing 15-1

$1 exbx 2/ALL

Horse ran in some really good sprints early in its career. Then Baker claimed it for $25k at Sar in August. Laid it off for 5 months, then ran in a Waiver Claimer where it was NOT available for the $25k price. If you watch that replay, horse stumbled out of the gate then was bumped, losing any chance to be on the lead. Then Davis rushed it up into a stiff headwind. Horse was strangely bet to 5/2 in that one. Now it's back on short-ish rest, with a step up in class, but now available for the $62k claim. Interesting stuff. Owners stand to clear about $75k in a 5 month period with a win and a claim. Back in those sprint stakes early on, horse showed good speed, had a couple of good wet track efforts, and also had some good closing efforts should the break go bad. Plus huge upgrade to Rajiv.

 

$34 bet, chasing $1497

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Sat 4/1/17

Playing two today:

 

Race 7

$20 win #8 Pretty Enuff 8-1

Englehart won six in a row with this one after Valente made a trainer change last April, and then somehow kept her in form throughout the end of the year. She's coming off a little longer of a break this time around(30+ days) and she's run well off these types of breaks before. Hoping the extra rest gets her back into form.

 

Race 9

$20 win #6 Clowney 20-1

$1exbx 6/ALL

When Farro ships in, I have to get involved. Horse might want to run a little longer, but has a couple One Mile wins on the resume so at this price I felt it's worth the risk. Hope for some fast fractions up front....

 

$58 bet, chasing -$1531

Good luck to anyone playing today!

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Sunday 4/2/17

Four bagger today, probably should be pray for scratches. Big Parx flavor today, and Parx/Mid-Atlantic horses have run well here over the winter:

 

Race 3

$20 Win #5 Riot Worthy 8-1

$1 exbx 5/ALL

NY BRED up against opens, but horse seems to be a different animal when sprinting for Baker.

 

Race 5

$20 Win #6 All Day Lawn 20-1

$1exbx 6/ALL

Might be claim bait, being it's a NY BRED, but Aro doesn't ship in often so when he does, I want to be involved. His barn is going good again at Parx.

 

Race 8

$20 WIN #1 Disco Rose 20-1

$1 exbx 1/ALL

$2 exbx 1-6

Reid already shipped in for a big upset here this winter, and this one ran in some really good races early in her career.

 

Race 9

$20 Win #9 Axe Capital 8-1

Serey has done well shipping in all winter. Alarm bells go off in NYRA offices every time he enters one, so get on board before he disappears.

 

$112 bet, chasing -$1599

 

Good luck!

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Wed 4/5/17

Not sure where these prices will go after scratches, but played two:

 

Race 3

$20 WIN #5 Jewel Heist 12-1

Down to a four horse field so Id expect this to go off in the 8-1/10-1 range. Kimmel might've been a little too aggressive with this one as a 2 y/o, so Allowance level to start the 3 y/o campaign seems right. Coming off a long layoff, but back when Kimmel was wheeling and dealing, he'd pull that move at big prices. After many down years, he's finally showing signs of life.

 

Race 8

$20 WIN #7 Sing for Beauty 6-1

Huge Chad Brown morning line fave in here, but that one is coming off a long layoff and may have bigger things in mind down the road. Although the wins have tailed off a bit, Baker horses continue to run well so far.

 

Good luck to anyone playing today!

 

$40 bet, chasing -$1674

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Thursday 4/6/17

A few Hail Marys before I reach my quit amount, on a rainy, messy day:

Race 1 $20 WIN #3 La Dama de Hierro 12-1

$2 exbx 3-4

$2 DD 3,4/7

I bet Metivier rather frequently but have somehow missed his $100, $60, and $48 horses the last six months. Determined to catch him. He's finally got this one semi-competitive at the age of six!

 

Race 5 $20 WIN #8 Mood Swing 8-1

$1 Pick Three 8/ALL/7

Longer part of Violette's uncoupled entry, has burnt some money the last few starts. I like playing these money burners once the crowd is off the scent.

 

Race 7 $20 WIN #7 Third Son 15--1

Thought Avila was a little ambitious last out, stepping this one up to Allowance level after winning a Waiver Mdn Claimer. But the race wasn't awful, getting squeezed at break and staying wide all around. Maragh sticking has to be seen as a positive, no? Horse is 1 for 3 since Avila took over from the ho hum DiPrima.

 

Race 9

$20 WIN #10 Persky's Spirit 20-1

Horse finally broke through three back, wire to wire. Charts list the track as fast but it wasn't, it was wet. Front runner didn't sniff the lead after a couple bad breaks last two. If he breaks clean, expect him to go to the front then hold your breath.

 

$96 bet, chasing -$1714

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  • 3 weeks later...

Sunday 4/23/17

About a week left in the meet, I have a couple Hail Mary's this week to put a dent in this figure:

 

Race 2

$20 WIN #6 Cody's Notes 15-1

Horse scratched out of an Allowance race Saturday for this. Interesting thing about that is it was lined at 20-1 in the Allowance, so I figured it for around 8-1 in today's Claimer. 15-1 seems high, and Morrison doesn't get bet, so 30-1 isn't out of the question. Horse won a similar claiming race this time last year at 30-1, off of a similar Aqu Inner to Aqu turf move. Dylan Davis was on that day, as well.

 

$20 bet, chasing -$1830

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