BarryRunSome Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 Some of these live lines really make me scratch my head. Especially live 1st half. Prime example. GS up 7 and they have a live 1st half line of -6.5 Curry can't hit the broad side of a barn. Draymond completely uncomposed and off the hinges. Durant currently only player worth a shit. Cleve getting every call I wanted to nail Cle 1st half bad but I'm heavy on GS for game ML. I didn't want to go down that road. Already got lucky yesterday with NO game and Tampa live 1st half. Viejo someone tell me do these books take a beating on these live lines? I imagine no because they wouldn't offer them. They're juiced but fuck, some of these games are ripe for the picking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepy Posted December 25, 2016 Report Share Posted December 25, 2016 i think they get their ass kicked on props and live they are the first things they start to limit you on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Another head scratcher Miss st clearly didn't show up. QB for Miss St looks like he might be disabled. And they hang Miami Oh 1st half +.5-110 when they were receiving the punt already up 3-0 with about 10 left in 2nd Q Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Was on Miss St for a nickel -13.5 Got my money back, and a couple extra bucks max betting the live line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRevolver Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Live lines the way to go. A must. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Another head scratcher Miss st clearly didn't show up. QB for Miss St looks like he might be disabled. And they hang Miami Oh 1st half +.5-110 when they were receiving the punt already up 3-0 with about 10 left in 2nd Q live lines are computer generated based on the score, time left, and closing line (and down/dist/yard line in football). i doubt big books are losing on these given the pinny/bookmaker limits are big, but there are certainly opportunities where the # doesn't reflect what's going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 I don't even know why I'm betting before the game anymore Some of these live lines are like taking candy from a baby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 live lines are computer generated based on the score, time left, and closing line (and down/dist/yard line in football). i doubt big books are losing on these given the pinny/bookmaker limits are big, but there are certainly opportunities where the # doesn't reflect what's going on.Yes. Definitely cases where the # doesn't reflect what's going on in the game. The live line for the Clippers-Lakers game during the 2nd half was spot on. There are a lot of exploitable live lines, and some that aren't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Another one Dallas at the 50 after receiving the punt. 2:30 left down 21-14 Live 1st half line was det-6.5+105Dal+6.5-135 LOLOL. I tried to bet Dallas but clicked Detroit by accident and had to back out and got shut out. I couldn't believe the line. In excitement I clicked the wrong team Who the fuck would bet Detroit at that line? Thee was ZERO chance Dallas wasn't getting at least a FG. It's mind boggling. It's like stealing money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucky Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 If I was the book and I had a gazillion bet on Detroit - I would not want anymore! But, no - I don't think the books make mistakes and offer value unless they want to get evened up a little. They totally know what everyone in the marketplace is charging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 If I was the book and I had a gazillion bet on Detroit - I would not want anymore! But, no - I don't think the books make mistakes and offer value unless they want to get evened up a little. They totally know what everyone in the marketplace is charging. Bucky look at that first half line I posted, in post 9. Who would bet Detroit? Dallas needs 15 yards for a FG. The game was a fucking track meet. Dak does not turn the ball over. It was free money. I almost fell out of my fucking chair to get the bet in. I clicked on Detroit by accident I was so excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 It's almost like the lines are being generated with zero input on the flow of the game and the feel of the game. Books have to be getting pounded on these live first half bets. The full game live lines are much sharper. The live first half lines are so exploitable. And the full game line during the second half are exploitable. It's a joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 When in play lines first came out I don't think they offered first half live and quarters during the game. I think it started as just full game. That was it. These first half live lines when you are letting me bet the first half with two minutes left. LOLOL. I don't know how they aren't getting killed. Anyone that would bet Detroit at that line has drool coming out of their mouth and is not capable of dressing themselves in the morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bfo Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 For sharp players (not me) I'm sure there are some edges that can be exploited. It's almost like crack to the small time bettors though. Was at the Tuscany a while back and the front row of their small book was jammed with black dudes watching the screens where they were showing the live wagering for all the NBA games. At every stop in play these guys were running to the window and betting on both side and total. No chance in hell that they were winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 For sharp players (not me) I'm sure there are some edges that can be exploited. .I'm about as sharp as a marble, and even I can see what is exploitable. It's silly Who in the world would bet Detroit, from what I posted in #9 Who in the world would bet Miss st -.5 first half already down 3-0 and punting away when it was clear as day they didn't show up? They clearly needed a half to wake up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Good thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Good threadFish chime in here please. Look at post 9. Who the fuck would bet Detroit?? Is it just me? Am I the only one that thinks some of these lines are silly?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Barry, it's not totally uncommon to see bizarre LIVE/in-game lines....offshore or here in Vegas. Sometimes it's unexplainable as to a specific reason why, a few different things could explain why, including ignorance on the books end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bfo Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Barry, it's not totally uncommon to see bizarre LIVE/in-game lines....offshore or here in Vegas.Sometimes it's unexplainable as to a specific reason why, a few different things could explain why, including ignorance on the books end.Thought I read that William Hill US in running lines were handled by some small company in England. I had always assumed they were done by bot on a purely mathematical basis and had no correlation to what positions the book actually needed. It seems everyone I know is convinced they can beat it, but at this point I'm unable to do so. For me the only way it's been profitable is exploiting the differences between multiple books, but I haven't been able to spend enough time on it to make any money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 BFO from my experience the full game live lines are sharp as a tack It's the live first half lines and the full game live lines, really late in the game. 4th Q late that can be had. Maybe it's just me. I'm imagining something I want to know the person who would bet Detroit from post 9 No way he/she can dress themselves in the morning without assistance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucky Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Bucky look at that first half line I posted, in post 9. Who would bet Detroit? Dallas needs 15 yards for a FG. The game was a fucking track meet. Dak does not turn the ball over. It was free money. I almost fell out of my fucking chair to get the bet in. I clicked on Detroit by accident I was so excited.I agree with what you are saying fundamentally - 1 big book can skew the marketplace if they are all one sided - Detroit started out playing well - maybe there was action on Detroit at -7 or so and they would lose a mountain if they could not get at least some Dallas money if there was a stop - I agree that nobody would bet Detroit at this price and I think they knew that. If they juice this line to -200 Dallas and + 170 Detroit where that is maybe the scientific price - maybe they get more Detroit money on top of what they have. That is exactly what you and I are looking for - a book dealing value because they need to and thus giving away a little value? Some players will just not pay high juice - just will not do it. But, if you can find a bet that you pay 1.35 for that is worth 1.70 - we have the world by the nuts. Just a matter of proving or disproving our theory - bet a 100 of them and evaluate. Problem is - we might have to sit there for 5 games before we get to play again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucky Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Unless that line sat there and got stale during the change of possession. Maybe, it wasn't really even there - if we try to bet it and then they update the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Unless that line sat there and got stale during the change of possession. Maybe, it wasn't really even there - if we try to bet it and then they update the price.It was there to bet, but for a very short time. It was a very quick commercial break, but I'm extremely confident that had I not clicked Det by accident I could have gotten down on Dallas +6.5-135 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryRunSome Posted December 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 I agree with what you are saying fundamentally - 1 big book can skew the marketplace if they are all one sided - Detroit started out playing well - maybe there was action on Detroit at -7 or so and they would lose a mountain if they could not get at least some Dallas money if there was a stop - I agree that nobody would bet Detroit at this price and I think they knew that. If they juice this line to -200 Dallas and + 170 Detroit where that is maybe the scientific price - maybe they get more Detroit money on top of what they have. That is exactly what you and I are looking for - a book dealing value because they need to and thus giving away a little value? Some players will just not pay high juice - just will not do it. But, if you can find a bet that you pay 1.35 for that is worth 1.70 - we have the world by the nuts. Just a matter of proving or disproving our theory - bet a 100 of them and evaluate Problem is - we might have to sit there for 5 games before we get to play again?Yes. These opportunities are not available every single game. It's a one off every couple games from what I've seen. Plenty of games where no live line jumps off the page The Miami Ohio miss st game had a great 1st half line that I was able to get down on. And the Dallas game. That was all I saw yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plommer Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Yes. These opportunities are not available every single game. It's a one off every couple games from what I've seen. Plenty of games where no live line jumps off the page The Miami Ohio miss st game had a great 1st half line that I was able to get down on. And the Dallas game. That was all I saw yesterdayI follow Will Hill's live lines and they were dealing Dallas +100 moneyline in the first half when Detroit was up by 7 and Dallas had the ball. There are some great opportunities at Will Hill but even a small bettor like me gets limited when I go on a nice run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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