Timely Hitting Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Durability has to be considered sure but again your not getting the past 5 years your getting the next so that durability factor has to be taken into some context. As far as those #'s go so many things come into play there and it's not that he isn't a good arm but is he an arm worth paying that premium price for which sale was and the price paid for Sale and price here for Quintana may end up being closer than it seems. Good arm he will pitch well and likely win his share of games for the Cubs but I still think it was at too costly a price tag. You get one extra year of control with Quintana; Sale is great, but one less year of control really matters. One WAR is worth about 8 million right now, so say Quintana is a 3 WAR pitcher in the last year still that's 24 million in surplus value. As an Astros fan, it's amazing to me that the Astros didn't add an arm like Quintana. You have to win during the windows you are given. The Astros had a chance but got conservative. You're really selling Quintana short because of some fictitious dominance factor. The best predictor of future injury is past injury. The 7th best WAR in baseball for that big a window is really impressive and certainly worth paying a premium price for. Quintana isn't old, he's 28. In the prime of his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 You get one extra year of control with Quintana; Sale is great, but one less year of control really matters. One WAR is worth about 8 million right now, so say Quintana is a 3 WAR pitcher in the last year still that's 24 million in surplus value. As an Astros fan, it's amazing to me that the Astros didn't add an arm like Quintana. You have to win during the windows you are given. The Astros had a chance but got conservative. You're really selling Quintana short because of some fictitious dominance factor. The best predictor of future injury is past injury. The 7th best WAR in baseball for that big a window is really impressive and certainly worth paying a premium price for. Quintana isn't old, he's 28. In the prime of his career. Agreed teams often have small windows when they are good enough to win and you want to capitalize on that in every aspect. BUT you also don't want to get overly aggressive and hurt the clubs future by overpaying for a guy. I am not arguing that Quintana is not a good arm I simply don't believe he is worth the price they paid for him. Hell at the end of the day they paid as much for Quintana as was paid for Sale or somewhere extremely close. Sure that added year of control is nice but by then your team may not even be in the position to win anyway so he becomes a trade piece which could have happened a year earlier so that extra years means less. That far down the line you simply don't know so the relevance of that extra year as to the win now concept as to what its worth can be minimized. For that kind of price tag I am perfectly fine with the Astro's not being the team making that deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 it's not even close this year, pal: # Name Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR 123 Page size: 74 items in 3 pages 1 Chris Sale Red Sox 11 4 0 18 18 127.2 12.55 1.55 0.78 .292 74.3 % 36.3 % 9.1 % 2.75 2.09 2.66 5.3 2 Max Scherzer Nationals 10 5 0 18 18 128.1 12.13 1.89 0.91 .226 80.4 % 38.7 % 10.2 % 2.10 2.61 3.07 4.4 3 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 14 2 0 19 19 132.1 10.81 1.50 1.22 .248 89.2 % 45.3 % 16.1 % 2.18 3.01 2.75 3.7He seems to wear down the 2nd H. His 1H the past few years have been phenomenal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 He seems to wear down the 2nd H. His 1H the past few years have been phenomenal.Was better post all-star break than pre last year. Seems like he's finally built up the arm strength; had a record high innings last year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Agreed teams often have small windows when they are good enough to win and you want to capitalize on that in every aspect. BUT you also don't want to get overly aggressive and hurt the clubs future by overpaying for a guy. I am not arguing that Quintana is not a good arm I simply don't believe he is worth the price they paid for him. Hell at the end of the day they paid as much for Quintana as was paid for Sale or somewhere extremely close. Sure that added year of control is nice but by then your team may not even be in the position to win anyway so he becomes a trade piece which could have happened a year earlier so that extra years means less. That far down the line you simply don't know so the relevance of that extra year as to the win now concept as to what its worth can be minimized. For that kind of price tag I am perfectly fine with the Astro's not being the team making that deal. Not even close. Moncada is the best position player prospect in baseball and Kopech is the best pitching prospect in baseball. They also threw in a guy who was on the fringe of the top 100 in Basebe; tools wise. Cease is coming off Tommy John and has great stuff, but has a lot of risk. He's in the bottom tier of the top 100. Moncada and Kopech are also much closer to MLB ready giving them even more value. This trade isn't as close as you think in terms of return. As for your next sentence, the Cubs certainly plan on contending the next three years and if they aren't something went horribly wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Not even close. Moncada is the best position player prospect in baseball and Kopech is the best pitching prospect in baseball. They also threw in a guy who was on the fringe of the top 100 in Basebe; tools wise. Cease is coming off Tommy John and has great stuff, but has a lot of risk. He's in the bottom tier of the top 100. Moncada and Kopech are also much closer to MLB ready giving them even more value. This trade isn't as close as you think in terms of return. As for your next sentence, the Cubs certainly plan on contending the next three years and if they aren't something went horribly wrong. The gap from Moncada to Eloy is a hell of a lot closer than your making it seem. And Kopech is definitely not the best SP prospect in baseball you're getting a little carried away there don't you think. Good SPing prospect sure but his control problems remain and were a worry all along so he like Cease has question marks with the potential top of the order stuff. Now rankings wise Cease is further down the roster than Kopech which is attributed to being a little further from the majors but the way prospects jump these days that gap can certainly be closed very quickly. I just think the gap between the cost for Sale and Quintana is a bit closer than it should be in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TobyTyler Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Idk about rape. Surprised to see Cease in the deal though, I'll give you that. Cease looks like Marlins era AJ Burnett Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 The gap from Moncada to Eloy is a hell of a lot closer than your making it seem. And Kopech is definitely not the best SP prospect in baseball you're getting a little carried away there don't you think. Good SPing prospect sure but his control problems remain and were a worry all along so he like Cease has question marks with the potential top of the order stuff. Now rankings wise Cease is further down the roster than Kopech which is attributed to being a little further from the majors but the way prospects jump these days that gap can certainly be closed very quickly. I just think the gap between the cost for Sale and Quintana is a bit closer than it should be in my opinion. Moncada is in AAA, Eloy is a 20 year old in A ball with a lot of development to do. Carried away? Depending on what publication, it's between Honeywell and Kopech - unless we're counting Tommy John Reyes who is also in that group of three but I'm certainly not getting carried away. Kopech is younger than Cease so being further from the majors isn't really an excuse. The surplus value was broken down in both trades based on prospect rankings. It's really not that close in value, you just seem to have a personal opinion that is lesser of Kopech and Moncada which you are entitled to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 All that really matters to me is my team had the stones to make a trade like that. It may work out or not, but at least they went for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Moncada is in AAA, Eloy is a 20 year old in A ball with a lot of development to do. Carried away? Depending on what publication, it's between Honeywell and Kopech - unless we're counting Tommy John Reyes who is also in that group of three but I'm certainly not getting carried away. Kopech is younger than Cease so being further from the majors isn't really an excuse. The surplus value was broken down in both trades based on prospect rankings. It's really not that close in value, you just seem to have a personal opinion that is lesser of Kopech and Moncada which you are entitled to. I simply think that rankings vary so much the gap between a guy being ranked #1 and #5 in one spot and say #2 and #10 in another doesn't always transfer to a gap in their potential impact being all that much, some of that ranking can be skewed by the position they play and when it comes to impact for a team that is marginal as to what they need. So when trying to figure how the gap between the talent 2 guys have rankings are only a piece of the pie and I watch some minor league stuff on occasion and really just haven't been impressed much by Kopech and I really think long run he could be a better RP than SP. But I will say that I do give the Cubs credit for making the move and adding Quintana no matter the cost because he is a quality arm and they needed it. They didn't mess around and try to get cheap, which some teams including my Astro's can have a tendency to do when it comes to prospects. I don't think it was a bad trade by the Cubs I just think they could have gotten Quintana for cheaper because I doubt anyone else was anywhere near giving up that kind of potential talent for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 I simply think that rankings vary so much the gap between a guy being ranked #1 and #5 in one spot and say #2 and #10 in another doesn't always transfer to a gap in their potential impact being all that much, some of that ranking can be skewed by the position they play and when it comes to impact for a team that is marginal as to what they need. So when trying to figure how the gap between the talent 2 guys have rankings are only a piece of the pie and I watch some minor league stuff on occasion and really just haven't been impressed much by Kopech and I really think long run he could be a better RP than SP. But I will say that I do give the Cubs credit for making the move and adding Quintana no matter the cost because he is a quality arm and they needed it. They didn't mess around and try to get cheap, which some teams including my Astro's can have a tendency to do when it comes to prospects. I don't think it was a bad trade by the Cubs I just think they could have gotten Quintana for cheaper because I doubt anyone else was anywhere near giving up that kind of potential talent for him. This is pretty amazing to me, given that he has the same stuff Thor has; he's the hardest throwing pitcher in the minors and maybe the hardest thrower in the world and he already has a ++ slider. He's also a physical freak, and he's incredibly young for his level and has flown through the minor leagues. You can think his velocity poses injury risk, or that he's a head case (he broke his teammates jaw once), but to not be impressed with him is a very bizarre statement for the guy who clearly has the best pure stuff in the minor leagues and some of the best raw stuff in the world already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 This is pretty amazing to me, given that he has the same stuff Thor has; he's the hardest throwing pitcher in the minors and maybe the hardest thrower in the world and he already has a ++ slider. He's also a physical freak, and he's incredibly young for his level and has flown through the minor leagues. You can think his velocity poses injury risk, or that he's a head case (he broke his teammates jaw once), but to not be impressed with him is a very bizarre statement for the guy who clearly has the best pure stuff in the minor leagues and some of the best raw stuff in the world already. Perhaps it's just that you know more about it than me and your a bit more of an authority. I am far from a scout I have seen innings from some of his games multiple times and he has some great K stuff no doubt about that but he has problems throwing it over the plate from one batter to another much less from inning to inning it seems at least at the times I have seen him. I mean doesn't matter how hard u thrown or how much it breaks if you can't throw it over the plate consistently. Sure that may change as he gets older but it's a big enough question now to bring quite a few other names into play when talking about the best SP prospect overall. Now that control could be less of a problem in a one inning scenario say as a closer where that stuff would be Chapman type dominate. Not saying that will happen but we have seen plenty guys throw that hard with decent secondary stuff then end up being no where close to studs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryHiII2 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 White Sox are a joke organization, nobody takes that club seriously Must suck living in Chicago and rooting for a team literally nobody cares about. One of the worst attendance records in sports. The White Sox virtually have ZERO fan base Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deemer Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Good I'm glad. Even easier Central for my Tribe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryHiII2 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Many people don't know this, but the White Sox organization has actually come close to folding many times throughout their history due to anemic fan support. I mean, American League baseball just kinda sucks. Cubs are the only baseball team in Chi-town that matter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ted sheckler Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Utah, you ever think about sending them some money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol Aristatel Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Many people don't know this, but the White Sox organization has actually come close to folding many times throughout their history due to anemic fan support. I mean, American League baseball just kinda sucks. Cubs are the only baseball team in Chi-town that matterPretty much spot on Johnny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 White Sox are a joke organization, nobody takes that club seriously Must suck living in Chicago and rooting for a team literally nobody cares about. One of the worst attendance records in sports. The White Sox virtually have ZERO fan baseThey have a decent sized base. The problem is the Cubs have a Midwest fanbase. In the city itself, there may be more Sox fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 The Sox fan base is very blue-collar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryHiII2 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 In the city itself, there may be more Sox fans.LOL, put down the crack pipe, sir The White Sox have an ANEMIC fan base. Horrible, horrible attendance year after year after year. Come on, FW. Johnny knows you're smarter than that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryHiII2 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Utah, you ever think about sending them some money?Fuck no National League Baseball fans laugh at what pussies the AL is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryHiII2 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Pretty much spot on Johnny.Thanks pal. You and I seem to agree on many issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryHiII2 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 The Sox fan base is very blue-collar.This is true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryHiII2 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 In the city itself, there may be more Sox fans.ZERO (0)% chance this is true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 ZERO (0)% chance this is trueTrust me, south and west of downtown is mainly Sox fans. They have all of the SW suburbs east to Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.