Always Call Heads Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just so dumb. What do you know about what's IV's are in someone else's model?It does not matter what is in your model. At best you are going to be right 6 games out of 100. The other guys has 94 chances to win on things you cannot put into your model. Gambling is predicting the future. You can't do it on 100 games. But some people will have an angle on those games that is not reflected in the line and most of your numbers will be the same as the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 It does not matter what is in your model. At best you are going to be right 6 games out of 100. The other guys has 94 chances to win on things you cannot put into your model. Gambling is predicting the future. You can't do it on 100 games. But some people will have an angle on those games that is not reflected in the line and most of your numbers will be the same as the line.Name one "angle" that cannot be incorporated into a model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 money drives clv. winners have money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Name one "angle" that cannot be incorporated into a model.Angles are a small part of it. The correct value of a team is fairly basic and often missed. If you give duritos numbers to Alan Boston and he bets only his best games, he will win easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screw Andrews Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 money drives clv. winners have money.A+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 my friend had an angle and after 200 bets he was winning at 54% and guess what the true implied was , yeah 54%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Angles are a small part of it. The correct value of a team is fairly basic and often missed. If you give duritos numbers to Alan Boston and he bets only his best games, he will win easily.And you can't even name one. Shocking. The correct value of a team isn't made by "angles". It's made using as many of the PREDICTIVE variables as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 And you can't even name one. Shocking. The correct value of a team isn't made by "angles". It's made using as many of the PREDICTIVE variables as possible.You are a modeler. You do not know the first thing about handicapping or an angle. You would not know a good angle if it hit you upside the head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Modeling is a part of handicapping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol Aristatel Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Is ACH really trying to have a gambling debate with Monkey and rito? LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 You are a modeler. You do not know the first thing about handicapping or an angle. You would not know a good angle if it hit you upside the head.I don't think you understand what modeling is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 ACh do you think the modeling right is A getting as close as possible to the game score resultB getting as close as possible to the closing lineC something else entirely and if something else what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Is ACH really trying to have a gambling debate with Monkey and rito? LOLSure seems like it. ACH is slick n his buddy seems so as well, but rito is alpha among alpha gamblers and monkey iq is through the roof. He just needs to embrace that he sees things a diff way but concede those guys know precisely what they're talking about 99.9% of the time (no model needed for that percentage) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 C) Finding +ev bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 And... It seems to me that if CLV yields 54% long-term at best, then that should only be part of your approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 C) Finding +ev bets but to find +EV bets we must model accurately and be very close to the closing line with our model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 And... It seems to me that if CLV yields 54% long-term at best, then that should only be part of your approach. i think 54% is crazy high and would be very hard to sustain long term Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 but to find +EV bets we must model accurately and be very close to the closing line with our model100% wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 100% wrongso clarify what is wrong and tell me what is right? appreciate the feedback! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The need to be close to rh closing line. A model doesn't have to be perfect, it just needs to able to find profitable bets. Mine isn't close to perfect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 but to find +EV bets we must model accurately and be very close to the closing line with our modelI’m not getting this concept. Why do you want to be where the closer is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evade Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 A poster by the name of Ganchrow made a thread about this topic about ten years back. Search for that thread in handicapper section of sbrforum.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 A poster by the name of Ganchrow made a thread about this topic about ten years back. Search for that thread in handicapper section of sbrforum.comgood idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The need to be close to rh closing line. A model doesn't have to be perfect, it just needs to able to find profitable bets. Mine isn't close to perfect.Ding ding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Monkey admits he makes NFL bets based on his own angles and says there are no angles worth betting. Admittedly, his angles are not worth betting but he clearly believes in angles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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