tailsyoulose Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Lets see if we can keep this thread politics free, and talk about BETTING, not other dumb shit. Hopefully there are some who can discuss this without turning it into a AIDS-infested shit show, and requiring it to be merged to the slop-bucket, shit burning 'politics' thread. Probably not, but whatever. My bets so far: I've been long on mayor Pete for since February (at everything from 20-1 down to 6-1), but now I'm piling on Deval Patrick at 100-1, even took some as low as 50-1 yesterday. He missed the Alabama and Arkansas filing deadlines, but being small states, he shouldn't have too much to worry about there. I'm much more concerned about his not being in the debates due to the poll requirements though - that's the big thing he's got working against him. This guy is experienced, black, reasonably woke, and an an unapologetic centrist/capitalist. He fills the exact middle ground of 'younger than Biden (and not senile) and older than Mayor Pete', competing for the centrist lane in the party, which is much, much larger than most people think. His time at Bain Capital is not an issue for most primary voters - with an economy this good, Warren and Sanders really don't have as much leverage as they think there - people are happy with the status quo on economic issues, and won't punish him for an openly centrist stance. Additionally, Obama is great friends with him, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw Deval a bone to boost his candidacy. Seems to be plenty of liquidity on Betfair in this market - I will be grabbing more this week, up to half a mil. Worth a small bet anyway, if you can grab it at 80 or 100-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Lingus Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Good luck - it's been tried before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 Good luck - it's been tried before banning certain people from the thread would help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 If Patrick got in early, he would have been formidable. At this time, with little money(unlike Bloomberg), little name recognition(unlike Bloomberg), and not being able to be in the debates(like Bloomberg), I see no lane for him. To think Obama is going to endorse anyone before the candidate is chosen is misguided. The Centrist lane, while probably being where most D's are, is not where the energy is, and energy wins caucuses and primaries. I guess there's a scenario where no candidate has the numbers by convention time, and he emerges as a compromise choice, but the reality is open conventions just don't happen anymore. There are worse bets then him at 100-1 for sure though, like Hillary at any number. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/15/us/politics/deval-patrick-michael-bloomberg-2020.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 If Patrick got in early, he would have been formidable. At this time, with little money(unlike Bloomberg), little name recognition(unlike Bloomberg), and not being able to be in the debates(like Bloomberg), I see no lane for him. To think Obama is going to endorse anyone before the candidate is chosen is misguided. The Centrist lane, while probably being where most D's are, is not where the energy is, and energy wins caucuses and primaries. I guess there's a scenario where no candidate has the numbers by convention time, and he emerges as a compromise choice, but the reality is open conventions just don't happen anymore. There are worse bets then him at 100-1 for sure though, like Hillary at any number. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/15/us/politics/deval-patrick-michael-bloomberg-2020.html I agree, Hillary basically like betting a superbowl prop of: OT - yes +200. Doesn't get any more square than that. I don't think there will be any official endorsement from Obama, but all he would need to do is mention his name or appear in a photo op - that alone pulls a shitload of weight. And yes, not being in the debate is gonna be a major hurdle - him declaring a few months ago would have been much more ideal for him. But that's part of why his price is so good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 I agree, Hillary basically like betting a superbowl prop of: OT - yes +200. Doesn't get any more square than that. I don't think there will be any official endorsement from Obama, but all he would need to do is mention his name or appear in a photo op - that alone pulls a shitload of weight. And yes, not being in the debate is gonna be a major hurdle - him declaring a few months ago would have been much more ideal for him. But that's part of why his price is so good.What's his path to the nomination without debates, money, and much name recognition? Anything but a brokered convention? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 What's his path to the nomination without debates and much name recognition? Anything but a brokered convention? well, the media will give him a pretty decent amount of coverage from here out. in addition, the guy will have a LOCK on big money wall street donations. money will NOT be a problem for deval. in the coming six weeks or so, i see him gaining a slow and steady increase in polling numbers - mainly, biden will bleed support to him, with a lot of remaining harris/booker voters jumping on the train as well. basically every time uncle joe appears in public he seems to lose another body part, or his eyeball explodes, or he wanders off the edge of the stage like a dementia patient, or he fuckin sniffs some woman's hair or something. if the black contingent starts to see patrick as a viable, obama 2.0 candidate, the support will snowball very quickly. he will start polling double digits and the rest is history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted November 15, 2019 Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 well, the media will give him a pretty decent amount of coverage from here out. in addition, the guy will have a LOCK on big money wall street donations. money will NOT be a problem for deval. in the coming six weeks or so, i see him gaining a slow and steady increase in polling numbers - mainly, biden will bleed support to him, with a lot of remaining harris/booker voters jumping on the train as well. basically every time uncle joe appears in public he seems to lose another body part, or his eyeball explodes, or he wanders off the edge of the stage like a dementia patient, or he fuckin sniffs some woman's hair or something. if the black contingent starts to see patrick as a viable, obama 2.0 candidate, the support will snowball very quickly. he will start polling double digits and the rest is history.Good luck. I think Bloomy gets the Wall St money before him, but Bloomy won't get the Black support. He will definitely be lower than 100-1, or even 50-1, so you'll probably be able to make money just by betting no side, and have a nice bet on him for free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2019 bloomberg's numbers fall flat in the first poll since he declared: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-got-some-new-polls-for-bloombergs-potential-campaign-they-arent-great/ interesting quote from a mass democrat voter hints at Warren's unlikeability. one of her biggest weaknesses is being so unrelatable, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2019 I've been telling everyone since Spring to get on Mayor Pete - he's no flash in the pan lightweight like Beto. Carrying a big chunk of equity on him at the moment, but will not be buying more at this time - he's shorter odds than Biden at the moment on Betfair, and only trails Warren by a small margin in the odds now. New Iowa poll absolutely blows it out of the water. As I've said over and over, the journo class is the Dem kingmaker. This is the base that I expect Deval to start eating into over the next few weeks/months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted November 17, 2019 Report Share Posted November 17, 2019 Everybody is Da Lockada Millennium... ...Until They AREN'T... Like Hillary in 2016... Hillary WAS Da Lockada Millennium... ...Then She WASN'T... Just Sayin'...BOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2019 Everybody is Da Lockada Millennium... ...Until They AREN'T... Like Hillary in 2016... Hillary WAS Da Lockada Millennium... ...Then She WASN'T... Just Sayin'...BOL... ...which is why Ive been fading Biden/Sanders and betting Mayor Pete since Feb, and why I'm loading up on Deval now. Catch up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 small post-debate bump for pete. tulsi tried to call him out on him wanting to send troops to mexico, but her anti-war platform is aids and no one gives a fuck about it. whether or not shes right dont matter - that round goes to pete. embarrassed to say i actually watched this debate. very, very boring. main takeaway for me is how weak of a candidate warren really is - shes only leading because journos are constantly propping her up. i predict she will start declining slowly over the coming weeks, trading at around 15-20%. still very much a wide open field. also, LOL at these bloomberg, clinton, yang odds. i have a better chance of being president next year than yang. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yang has pretty much no shot but I’d probably throw him a vote. He’s a little nutty but I do appreciate the way he approaches problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yang has pretty much no shot but I’d probably throw him a vote. He’s a little nutty but I do appreciate the way he approaches problems. id certainly prefer him over biden/sanders/warren/pete. but yeah, he does not have a snowballs chance in hell here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Patrick had a college appearance set for tonight that he cancelled after only 2 people showed up, he's got no chance. Bloomberg has no chance either, the rest are bettable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 BIDEN = Still The FAVE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Patrick had a college appearance set for tonight that he cancelled after only 2 people showed up, he's got no chance. Bloomberg has no chance either, the rest are bettable.Who? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Who?Devel patrick, he announced a week or so back, he's supposedly friendly with obama and of course the lunatics think he has a chance because he's black. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Never fucking heard of him, pal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Never fucking heard of him, pal.Try to keep up. In the spirit of christmas however, i will act as your tutor joey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Try to keep up. In the spirit of christmas however, i will act as your tutor joey.Why exactly should I care who some scrub dem candidate is? Don’t want to shit up this thread so don’t bother responding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Why exactly should I care who some scrub dem candidate is? Don’t want to shit up this thread so don’t bother responding.Listen dumbass, in the first post starting the thread, tailyoulose brought him up, in fact he was the first candidate he brought up. i agree you should stop shitting up the thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjt Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Never fucking heard of him, pal.Was governor of MA. Will surely have Wade/D Hustle and Beantownjim’s endorsement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Was governor of MA. Will surely have Wade/D Hustle and Beantownjim’s endorsementOverpaid janitor ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.