Colonel Lingus Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 With a 4400 stop loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brokerstip Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 he's definitely been unsuccessful in the past but winning since he's been on tgf; maybe he found that system that hits 57% at -110 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Lingus Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 A good friend of mine is streaky like this Goes 16-2 then 1-17 week after week Im not sure how he handles it - but he gets high off it Falcon is one of those guys. He does seem like a good guy - smal biz owner- and he has figured out how to profit off it to gullible people like kgb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Falcon Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I don't want to get involved with the back and forth banter. But I will leave you with this Teddy. Remember Edison, he found 1000 ways the light bulb wouldn't work but only needed to find one way that it would. Welcome aboard Teddy.. I'll be around to post the plays and update the record, you guys can hash out everything else. See u tomorrow Falcon Sports @FalconSports1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 You’ve been around and seen it with your own eyes for 15 years.Joe, I’ve seen SSI at Therx in the NHL sub forum and he didn’t do any of this type of threads, but he did post winners and after a few years went rouge....as far as the 100’s of threads he started and stopped I’d say most went up early and then when he went back to even or maybe a smidge down he’d bail... I would say that he Never got really buried.....even if I’m miss remembering I’m still going to give him the benefit of the doubt because he won over his last 150 plays at EOG and his first 50+ here and not very many if any can say they’ve done that in fourmville I’m not just going to sit back and kiss Ritos ass and hope he throws me a bone, I’m going to ride the hot hand who’s giving plays daily Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I’m not throwing down my life savings, if Falcon can buy me Houses quad runner I’ll be happy.... I’m just a ham and egger, no 40k on Elisabeth Warren for me.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Ride the hot streak just make sure you get off the ride before it crashes for the 379th time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Hmm let's see start with 5k bet 3% a play. Should have 5m by end of the year at 57%3% of 5k is $150.....there’s 700 plays left this year and at 57% it comes out to 70units.....how do you turn $150 starting bets and a 5k BR into 5M You’re slippin Rito.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Friday is slim pickings.... NHL - 3 gamesNBA - 7 gamesCBB - 8 games How are you going to do it Falcon? I’m scared.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Falcon Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Falcon Sports Daily Double13-7 (+10.70 units)65.00% Winners2 units each Falcon Sports just released a Daily Double for Friday night Fairfield +5.5 (-110) CBB Furman - 2 (-110) CBB 2 units each Good luck guys Falcon Sports @FalconSports1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 3% of 5k is $150.....there’s 700 plays left this year and at 57% it comes out to 70units.....how do you turn $150 starting bets and a 5k BR into 5M You’re slippin Rito....Kelly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I’m playing splits today.....thanks for posting Falcon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Split for less.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Full Kelly at 57% against -110 means you'd be betting 9.7% of your bankroll on every play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Thanks Mnky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Monkey, can u give me a projection of where’d I be if my BR is 1k and I played full Kelly for the next 700 plays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downsouth Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Monkey, can u give me a projection of where’d I be if my BR is 1k and I played full Kelly for the next 700 playshttps://youtu.be/2V3CfD8TPac Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Monkey, can u give me a projection of where’d I be if my BR is 1k and I played full Kelly for the next 700 plays$388k if you hit 57%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Fvck yeah!!!!!! Thanks dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I’m going to pay my house off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housepicks Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 What’s full Kelly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajt Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 https://youtu.be/2V3CfD8TPac Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 What’s full Kelly?The Kelly Criterion. It's a mathematical formula for staking wagers based on your edge. You can bet full or fractional (more risk averse). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housepicks Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 How does one quantify their age? I thought it was more perception than something that can be measured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 How does one quantify their age? I thought it was more perception than something that can be measured. Usually with a predictive model. It's generally just an estimate against historical market prices and that's why people tend to use a fractional variety of Kelly. But Kelly staking will show you the best returns over any other staking system even when factoring in some variance in your edge estimation. I built a spreadsheet simulation to show the differences a number of years ago. Here's the link to the thread: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/1571755-estimated-edge-error-simulation-kelly-conundrum.html Final version was here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/1571755-estimated-edge-error-simulation-kelly-conundrum.html#post13700445 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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