Jump to content

What do you have stashed so far for the outbreak?


Hoops
 Share

Recommended Posts

The GC treats us good besides that so I don’t want to fvck with them but I need to get the framing foreman on something as he told my boss that I’m always on my phone....little fvcking snitch

 

Grown fvcking man....

You're paid to work, not talk on the phone.  Grow up and manage your affairs in a way that doesn't interfere with work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

You're paid to work, not talk on the phone. Grow up and manage your affairs in a way that doesn't interfere with work.

I’m the ‘pk’up’ guy on this job so I’m always walking around looking for material or waiting on the man lift.....so during that time I look at my phone....nothing I can do but wait, I can’t carry a 10’ ladder down the stairs, and when I do take the stairs I don’t need to keep reminding myself I’m heading down 2 floors to get a 1/2” copper 90*

 

Not wasting any company time

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

  • We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.

As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).

Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)

If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.

Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Merlin if you think this is gonna get real crazy why aren’t you stocking up on hand sanitizer and holding of for a few weeks to sell at a huge profit?

I dont care about grubbing for a few dollars, besides, it's too late to get any. I dont own any sanitizer by the way, I have plenty of soap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m seriously tempted to buy a 55 gallon drum of sanitizer I found. For $1400.

I bought about $600-$700 worth and paid 50 cents an ounce.

 

I’ll sell it for at least double. It’s not gonna make me rich but why not. I don’t want I resell it online and pay shipping and selling fees so I really am going to set up shop at a flea market in the ghetto.

 

I like buying things online and I like hanging out in the ghetto. It’s like a field trip to the zoo. You see the craziest shit. I estimate I have about a 5% chance that I get beaten and they take my sani.

No problem, the thrill feels good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...