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Boatboatboat

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Navy led the nation in rushing last season, but the Midshipmen break in a new quarterback when they open the season Monday night in a nationally televised nonconference game against visiting BYU in Annapolis, Md.

 

Senior Dalen Morris takes over for triple-option wizard Malcolm Perry, who ran for 2,017 yards last season while leading Navy to an 11-2 record and 360.5 rushing yards per game. Morris had a strong preseason camp after appearing briefly in four games over the past two seasons.

 

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"Dalen came in with a purpose and took the position," offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper said in a video call with media. "I'm very excited with where Dalen is now. He just has to keep doing it and carry that confidence over into the season."

 

BYU, coming off a 7-6 season as an independent, has experience at quarterback in junior Zach Wilson, who has 3,960 passing yards in 18 games over the past two years, including an injury-disrupted 2019 season. He finished strong, however, throwing for nearly 900 yards in the final three games.

 

"I think he had a great offseason not having to rehab or anything like that," said BYU coach Kilani Sitake. "He was able to master his craft a little bit more and improve his game. He worked really hard in the offseason. This was his third fall camp, so he felt a lot more comfortable. Instead of trying to establish himself as a player, now he is trying to compete and solidify his spot."

 

The Cougars suffered a significant blow in camp when senior tight end Matt Bushman, a potential All-American, suffered a season-ending injury, reported to be a torn Achilles tendon. Without Bushman, BYU's goal of being better in the red zone -- the Cougars ranked 120th out of 130 teams last season -- gets even trickier.

 

It helps to have a talented and veteran offensive line, led by left tackle Brady Christensen and center James Empey, both juniors. The Cougars will try to lean on their size on both sides of the line in a game that the oddsmakers rate close to a toss-up.

 

 

"Their offensive and defensive lines, very physical," said Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo. "They have played with a lot of Power 5 people. Up front, they don't look out of place. That's going to be one of my biggest concerns. They're well-coached and they're physical. That's a bad combination (for us)."

 

Navy ended last season on a four-game winning streak, went 7-1 in the American Athletic Conference and finished with a 20-17 Liberty Bowl win over Kansas State. That was a brilliant bounce-back season after falling to 3-10 in 2018, only Niumatalolo's second losing season in 14 years at the academy. Fullbacks Jamale Carothers (743 yards, 14 touchdowns, 6.6 yards per carry) and Nelson Smith (571 yards, seven TDs) return, while Niumatalolo raved about the camp development of senior slotback Myles Fells, who had 18 carries last season.

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Both the BYU Cougars and Navy Midshipmen saw opening-week rivalry games get scuttled because of COVID-19 related upheaval. The Midshipmen were set to kick off their season in Ireland against Notre Dame, while BYU originally opened up against Utah. The two teams filled the season-opening hole in their respective schedules by agreeing to this last-minute Labor Day clash. It offers what is likely the best game in a truncated week one slate.

 

Navy is coming off an 11-win season that culminated in a 20-17 victory over Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl. The Midshipmen engineered a remarkable turnaround a year ago, going from a 3-win team in 2018 to a Top-25 squad in 2019. Navy led FBS teams in rushing offense last season, churning out a school-record 360.5 yards per game on the ground and rushing for 52 touchdowns. The Midshipmen also totaled a school-record 4,687 rushing yards.

 

BYU sputtered to a 7-6 finish a year ago, capped by a 38-34 loss to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. The Cougars were the epitome of inconsistency in 2019. They scored upset victories over USC, Tennessee, and Boise State while dropping games to the likes of Toledo and South Florida. Season cancellations by the Pac-12, Big Ten, and Mountain West Conferences gutted BYU's original 2020 schedule, and the new 8-game slate promises to be more conducive to success.

 

The series is tied 1-1. BYU won 31-10 in 1989 in the most recent game between the two teams.

 

BYU at Navy

Kickoff: Monday, Sept. 7 at 8 p.m. ET

 

TV: ESPN

 

Spread: BYU -1.5

 

When BYU Has the Ball

The injury bug is already attacking the Cougars before their season opener. Senior tight end Matt Bushman tore his Achilles tendon at the end of August, costing BYU its top returning receiver.

 

Bushman's season-ending injury leaves the Cougars without any of their top four receivers from a year ago. Gunner Romney and Dax Milne will need to take the next step forward in their absence. Romney tallied 377 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 31 catches last season. Milne added 285 yards and two scores on 21 receptions. If some receivers and tight ends can emerge, it will help quarterback Zach Wilson bounce back from an injury-marred sophomore season. Wilson is 100 percent healthy going into his junior campaign, which bodes well for BYU.

 

Running back by committee will be the approach for the Cougars to start. Expect Lopini Katoa and Tyler Allgeier to be the main weapons in the backfield. Katoa was BYU's No. 2 rusher last season with 358 yards and four touchdowns. He only averaged 4.2 yards per carry and will need to be more productive to take the pressure off Wilson and the passing game. Allgeier only rushed for 119 yards in 2019 after spending part of the season at linebacker, but he averaged 7.0 yards per carry. He has a chance to lock down the starting spot if he can duplicate that level of performance in extended minutes on the field.

 

When Navy Has the Ball

Replacing a playmaker like Malcolm Perry is never easy. That's the challenge facing Navy's offense this season with Perry now graduated. He ranked second in the FBS last season with 2,017 rushing yards and tied for first with 21 rushing touchdowns.

 

Dalen Morris takes over at quarterback this season after winning the job in fall camp. The senior started camp as the No. 3 signal-caller, but surged past Perry Olsen and Maasai Maynor for the top spot by mid-August. Morris ran twice for 16 yards last season as the No. 3 quarterback behind Perry and Olsen. He has played in just five career games, so his inexperience could be an issue while facing an experienced BYU defense.

 

Morris has plenty of capable runners sharing the backfield with him to alleviate the pressure. Jamale Carothers was the No. 2 rusher at fullback last season, averaging 6.6 yards per carry while churning out 734 yards and 14 touchdowns. Nelson Smith is another capable runner at fullback with 571 and seven scores to his credit in 2019. The duo is certain to cause problems for a BYU defense that routinely struggled to stop the run last season.

 

Final Analysis

Navy is 5-0 in season openers at home under Ken Niumatalolo. All five victories came against FCS opponents. Opening against BYU offers a decidedly stiffer challenge. Still, if Morris can hit the ground running as the new starting quarterback, the Midshipmen will have an advantage. The Cougars inexplicably dropped eight on a regular basis in their defensive schemes last season and let several opponents run all over them at critical times. Injuries to key players on offense mean that finishing drives might be an issue as well. Navy is adept at chewing clock and yards on long-drives and could put BYU in a tough spot for four quarters.

 

Prediction: Navy 24, BYU 20

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A Solid Season

Back in 2017, the BYU Cougars went just 4-9 but they have bounced back with a pair of 7-6 seasons the last two years. Last year did end on a down note as the Cougars lost to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl by a score of 38-38. They will now look to get off to a good start in what should be a better season than the one they had last year. BYU brings back 15 starts overall, including eight to an offense that averaged 28.5 ppg a season ago. Unlike Navy, the Cougars will not have to replace their QB as Zach Wilson is back after throwing for 2382 yards with 11 TDs and nine INTs last year. He should improve on those numbers, despite the fact that four of his top five pass catchers are gone from a year ago. Still, TE Matt Bushman is back after leading the team with 658 yards receiving and four TDs last year.

 

 

The Cougars should have a much-improved running game back, with their top three ball carriers all returning. we do note that top back, Sione Finau, is doubtful for this one with a knee injury. There is still plenty of talent at the position and BYU has an offensive line that returns all five starters. Phil Steele has the line ranked as the 16th best in the nation. That could pay dividends against an undersized Navy defensive front. The Cougars have allowed just 21.4 ppg and 25.5 ppg the last two years and this one should be very solid as they have seven starters back and 12 of their top 14 tacklers overall. The Cougars have been gearing up to face the Triple-Option which is hard to defend. they have had all summer to get ready for it but not as much time on the field as they would have liked. We will see if that hurts them.

 

Midshipmen Bounced Back From A Horrible 2018

Last year, the Navy Midshipmen were considered a mission team they had winning records from 2012 to 2017 but 2018 was a disastrous season for them as Navy went just 3-10 that year. Our Naval Academy is a resilient one and the Midshipmen bounced back in a huge way last year, going 11-2 overall and 7-7 within the AAC. They capped their season off with a 20-17 win over Kansas in the Liberty Bowl. Now the Midshipmen will look to build on last year but they will have to do so with another QB under center. Malcolm Perry is gone after rushing for 2000+ yards and thrown for 1000+ yards last year. he was the heart and soul of the offense. Chance Warren was slated to be the QB this year, but he has been moved to Slot Back as Dalen Morris has grabbed the reigns of the offense. He has plenty of talent and should help Navy, but it will be hard for them to come close to the 37.2 ppg they put up last year.

 

 

 

The ground game is their bread-and-butter and their top two backs do return in Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith, who combined for 1322 yards and 21 TDs last year. They will now be facing a BYU defense that is expected to have a good defense this year. Normally, Navy has a huge advantage over a team that doesn't see the Triple-Option that often but BYU has had all summer to prepare for it and with navy breaking in a new QB, you have to wonder if that will give BYU the edge here. The defense for the Midshipmen allowed 33.5 ppg back in 2018 but it rebounded to allow just 22.3 ppg a year ago and they did so with just four starters back from the previous season. This defense could be even better as the Midshipmen have seven starters back from last year. That includes Diego A person with a different sexual orientation , who led the team in tackles with 100, which included 6.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.

 

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Notable Trends

Navy is:

 

1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Independents

Trends are Courtesy Of Covers.com

BYU is:

 

9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

Rating:

BYU has had plenty of time to get ready for the Triple Option. Through the course of a regular season, the Midshipmen would have an advantage over teams that have just a week to prepare for it but in the first game of the season, that advantage goes out the door. The Cougars have 2 of their top 14 tacklers back from last year and Navy is breaking in a new QB. I do not see Navy having the explosive offense that they had last year until the 2nd half of the season when Dalen Morris has had some time under center. BYU does not have an issue with breaking in a new QB as Zach Wilson returns and he has a solid running game to go along with a very good offensive line. I can see the Cougars using their run game and offensive line to wear down an undersized Navy front wall. BYU has all the edges in this one and they should walk away with a hard-fought win in game one.

 

Prediction: BYU -2

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Boatboatboat

Boatboatboat

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Monday at 8:00 PM
Back to Games		 BYU (0-0) AT NAVY (0-0) 
Premium Matchup Information Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF/PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
243: BYU
244: NAVY		 48.5
+1.0		 00.0 / 00.0
00.0 / 00.0		 0-0
0-0		 0-0-0
0-0-0		 0-0-0
0-0-0		 00.0
00.0		 00.0
00.0		 00.0
00.0		 00.0
00.0		 00.0
00.0		 00.0
00.0
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
  Power Rating
  Estimate Edge
BYU    
NAVY -11 http://statfeed.statfox.com/images/star.gif
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
BYU - Recent ATS Trends
  Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up
  Current Last 3    Since 1992 Current Last 3    Since 1992 Current Last 3    Since 1992
Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L
when the line is +3 to -3 0-0 1-4 28-33 0-0 3-2 24-33 0-0 1-4 29-32
in all games 0-0 13-13 167-176 0-0 11-15 128-165 0-0 14-12 226-130
in all lined games 0-0 13-13 167-176 0-0 11-15 128-165 0-0 14-12 215-129
as a favorite 0-0 5-10 102-123 0-0 6-9 80-99 0-0 8-7 174-51
as a road favorite 0-0 1-5 38-46 0-0 3-3 33-32 0-0 2-4 63-21
as a road favorite of 3 points or less 0-0 0-2 4-11 0-0 1-1 6-8 0-0 0-2 5-10
in road games 0-0 7-6 81-74 0-0 6-7 63-70 0-0 6-7 90-68
in road lined games 0-0 7-6 81-74 0-0 6-7 63-70 0-0 6-7 89-67
in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 0-0 1-2 19-16 0-0 2-1 20-14 0-0 0-3 15-20
in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 0-0 0-2 16-13 0-0 1-1 17-12 0-0 0-2 14-15
against American Athletic conference opponents 0-0 0-1 5-8 0-0 1-0 7-6 0-0 0-1 8-5
when playing on a Monday 0-0 0-0 0-3 0-0 0-0 1-2 0-0 0-0 0-3
in games played on turf 0-0 7-4 37-32 0-0 5-6 29-30 0-0 6-5 38-33
in September games 0-0 5-4 48-58 0-0 2-7 38-55 0-0 5-4 60-50
in non-conference games 0-0 11-11 90-97 0-0 10-12 80-99 0-0 10-12 112-87

 

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