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Sunday Tout Play


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Mike Tierney

ARIZONA -7
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA | 9/20 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:54 PM
Overreaction in Week 2 based on a single outcome is a common malady, but it does not apply with the Cardinals. The quantum leap forward by QB Kyler Murray and the earth-shattering Arizona debut by WR DeAndre Hopkins cannot be discounted. The Washington Football Team may have opened with a W but scrounged out a league-low 239 yards and averaged a measly 2.2 per rush. Good luck keeping up with Murray and Hopkins.

7-0-1 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +700
15-6 IN LAST 21 WAS ATS PICKS | +833

4-0-1 IN LAST 5 ARI ATS PICKS | +400

L.A. RAMS PK
L.A. RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/20 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:53 PM
Philly QB Carson Wentz was sacked eight times by the Washington Football Team. Watching Rams DT Aaron Donald on film must be a horror show. The Eagles’ battered offensive line appears to be getting healthier but not enough to contain Donald and sidekicks. L.A. coach Sean McVay is 20-8 straight-up away from home, and he has won all three road openers. Let’s put the impact of Rams RB Todd Gurley’s departure to rest; he played minimally last year.

7-0-1 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +700
14-9 IN LAST 23 LAR ATS PICKS | +401

7-5 IN LAST 12 PHI ATS PICKS | +149

JACKSONVILLE +8.5
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE | 9/20 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:50 PM
Look now at the QB passer ratings because you won’t see the Jags’ Gardner Minshew (third between future Hall of Famers Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers) there long. Still, Minshew (19-for-20) has quieted the Trevor Lawrence/2021 draft speculation with a stellar showing in the opener. The Titans are solid but not explosive on offense, which makes the healthy spot a tad high — particularly after Stephen Gostkowski’s atrocious placekicking last Sunday.

7-0-1 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +700
15-6 IN LAST 21 JAC ATS PICKS | +864

14-7 IN LAST 21 TEN ATS PICKS | +629

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MINNESOTA +3

MINNESOTA @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/20 | 1:00 PM EDT

Philip Rivers is a statue and he continues to turn the ball over. The Colts' defense just allowed Gardner Minshew to complete 19 of 20 passes. Minnesota should be favored in this game. The Vikings will run the ball better this week and get to 1-1.

NEW ORLEANS -5.5

NEW ORLEANS @ LAS VEGAS | 9/21 | 8:15 PM EDT

The Raiders have no defense. Alvin Kamara is going to have a huge game both as a runner and receiver. The Saints' defense just shut down Tom Brady and they're going to show up big here too. Lay the points.

ATLANTA +4.5

ATLANTA @ DALLAS | 9/20 | 1:00 PM EDT

The Falcons are loaded on offense. Matt Ryan hit three different receivers for more than 100 yards each. Don't overreact to Atlanta's Week 1 result versus Russell Wilson: This team is closer to the version that finished 6-2 last season than the version that started 1-7. The Cowboys are dealing with several key injuries, and their coaching continues to be subpar. Grab the points.

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
273 MIN 3.0(-110) Westgate vs 274 IND double-dime bet

Analysis: Yes, the Vikings looked bad against Green Bay. But we predicted that, and a lot of that had to do with the matchup issues that the Packers gave them in 2019 once again showing in 2020. The Vikings offensively struggle against teams with a dominant defensive line, and defensively struggle against top end quarterbacks (especially with their corner situation). The Colts will not be able to take advantage of this nearly as much as Green Bay did.


Since Mike Zimmer became the Vikings HC, no team in the NFL is better off a loss. The Vikings are 28-9 ATS off a loss with an ATS margin of nearly 5 PPG. For all the talk about how bad the Vikings defense looked on Sunday (and it did look bad), the Colts defense allowed a 19 of 20 passing, three touchdown performance from a bottom tier starting quarterback in Gardner Minshew.



Most importantly, we have line value. Power rating wise, I have the Vikings 0.5 better then Indy. With HFA being worth 2 points at most, Indy can’t be laying 3.

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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
275 DET / 276 GBP OVER 48.5 Westgate double-dime bet

Analysis: I absolutely hate being late to the number here, as this line was 47.5 but got bet up at that number by some sharp groups.


However, I expect this total to climb even higher.


Detroit is likely without their top three cornerbacks in this game, and in a co-vid year, that means even more trouble then before. The Lions will likely have practice squad players in their secondary, and making matters worse is the fact that they have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. The Vikings lack pass rush and cornerbacks, and Aaron Rodgers torched them on Sunday. The Lions defense held Mitchel Trubisky in check for three quarters last week, until the cornerback injuries, and then proceeded to give up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay should absolutely dominate in this matchup.


When Matt Stafford went down halfway through 2019, Lions were 8th in NFL in PPG and 4th in yards per game. Stafford was on pace for 38TD/10INT, and a career high in passer rating, YPA, and TD rate. Matt Stafford is still more then capable of putting up his share of points in this matchup, and few quarterbacks have been better in their career at putting up points when coming from behind

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
270 NYJ 7.0(-110) BetOnline vs 269 SFX double-dime bet

Analysis: This is what you call a ugly dog play. Nobody wants to bet on the Jets after that pathetic performance against the Bills. However, this line is way too high and there's clear value on the Jets in week two.


There's multiple situational factors in favor of the Jets, including the fact that the 49ers are a west coast team playing an early start time on the east coast, and the fact that over the last six seasons, teams that lose by double digits in week 1 are 62.5% ATS in their week two game.


The 49ers pass game is in shambles. George Kittle is not 100%, their number one wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out, and their number two wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is potentially out as well. San Francisco's offensive success is based off their running game, but the one thing this Jets team can do is stop the run, as they had the number 2 run defense in DVOA last season and held the Bills running backs to 2.3 YPC in week one.


Defensively, San Francisco is still above average, but they are not the unit they once were. Important assistant coach Joe Woods left in the offseason, they lost DT Deforest Buckner, and an already shaky secondary is now without stud CB Richard Sherman for this game.


Power rating wise, I make this game Jets +5.5. This is mostly a San Francisco fade play, as they are a team that just can't be laying this amount of points on the road with the current injury situation as well as lack of explosiveness on offense!

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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
12:08 PM

PHILADELPHIA +1
L.A. RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/20 | 1:00 PM EDT
This was the biggest move off the lookahead number, as injuries to the offensive line caught up to the Eagles in their loss to Washington. But they should be more healthy for this matchup, with Lane Johnson expected to return and Miles Sanders also likely back after the Eagles had to go down to their No. 3 running back in Week 1. That means the line should be closer to the lookahead number of Eagles -3.5. I'd say these two teams are close to even in terms of strength, and while I don't think teams get full home-field advantage, if there's any at all the Eagles should be at worst short favorites in this game.

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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
9:41 AM

SEATTLE -4
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE | 9/20 | 8:20 PM EDT
This is a tale of two offenses. The Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson looked sharp last week in a pass-first attack, and I wouldn't be surprised if they stuck with the same plan on Sunday night. Meanwhile the Patriots are still making the transition from Tom Brady's arm to Cam Newton's legs. Their new-look offense will face a much tougher test in Seattle than it did against Miami.

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Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
YESTERDAY 9:30 PM

ARIZONA -6.5
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA | 9/20 | 4:05 PM EDT
The rising Cardinals upset the defending NFC champs in Week 1, but this line stayed put at where it was weeks earlier. That's because the Football Team also pulled off a stunner. Washington had the perfect setup for its scary D-line against the depleted Eagles, but facing the Cards on the road is much different. Washington just doesn't measure up talent-wise, and I want to grab this before it reaches a full TD. Lay the 6.5.

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