GameBred

I hear you loud and clear but I am not thinking in terms of entertainment as I don't consider it entertainment. For guys that do, I don't think BR Management is a high priority so they can bet whatever they want as long as they stay within their means. I enjoy not stressing when I lose 6 bets in a row because each individual result is inconsequential; it would only be a 6% drawdown. If I were to invest 5% under the same scenario it would be a 30% drawdown and I would need a 43% gain just to get back to break even; unacceptable IMO.

I would argue that it is ridiculous to bet more than 1% unless you really know what you are doing. Most people don’t have an edge in sports investing and betting more than 1% will only erode the roll quicker. IMO, good trading is pretty much tedious, I enjoy it but I wouldn’t call it exciting. If guys just want a rush and enjoy putting cash on a game to make it more exciting, more power to them. This advice isn’t meant for them.

How would a pro reason this out? I have my reservations about even the top notch pros being able to gauge their edge with the granular accuracy necessary to make fully Kelly viable (you seem to agree). Even if you are the nuts when it comes to sports investing and have an intimate knowledge of Kelly, there is a 50% chance you could experience a 50% drawdown using full Kelly; way too much volatility for me. If you lose 50% of your trading equity, you need to make 100% back just to get back to break even. Forgive me but I would much rather have 2% smooth returns than 3% choppy ones. I am well aware that if you turn over 1 million in the market, 3% ROI returns 50% more profits than 2% ROI . I would assume most pros trade their equity curve using a proportional fixed fractional BR system along with their perceived edge (typically 1% of current BR +/- any perceived edge). I have given this much thought and it seems to be the best balance between being offensive and defensive with one’s money management strategy. Do you find this logic flawed?

Totally cool. I wouldn't make public posts undermining my edge either. I am going to have to think about your last sentence. Off the cuff, time is an illusion in the sense that tomorrow never comes because it never catches up sort of thing? I think Thomas Mann, whom I used to devour, spoke about these types of things, but I could be wrong, many moons since I read him.

LOL.

Gotcha. Thanks for getting back to me. If you are so inclined, would enjoy hearing you expound on your ideas about the lack of independence. Time is natures way of keeping everything from happening at once.

I see your point but one of the main reasons I am here is because they are not. I have no illusions, I am a nobody with zero clout but I am putting it in the wind if those guys are welcome here. They are who they are.

Why is 38% the chosen figure? Thank you.

LOL. Not familiar with the log limit of Kelly, will have to drill down on it.

Hip Hip Hooray!

Flat bet using a sliding scale based upon my equity curve (typically 1% of BR) and perceived edge. Full Kelly betting is borderline insane betting so if you are going to use it then I would encourage using quarter-kelly or a derivative thereof. Not saying people can't succesfully use Full Kelly but I am saying those people are outliers.

Yes, 40 is working now. Good job fellas.

And I meant "Stephen Strasburg." :)

If by playoffs, his balls keep missing the plate, finding holes and clearing the fence on the road then I would consider moving him to the pen. The good news for the Nats is that his road X-fip is ~2 runs due south of his road ERA; his poor road results have been a mixture of bad luck (BABIP & HR/FB) and control issues. Do these things iron themselves out? Regression doesn't have to happen this year, hell, it doesn't even have to happen over a career. It usually does and I think he will obviously perform much better on the road at some point but can’t pinpoint that point. I guess my answer is pending :)

Great post. Any idea how/why a half-win in NFL season win totals is worth ~50-cents? I have heard this for years and have just accepted it but I would love to know how they determine that. If you could shed any light, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

Yes. Appreciate it. Thanks Boat. Deemer is funny. He mentions “TGF†at the beginning of the video so it couldn’t be the same :)

Please add: Some sort of notification on the main forum page when a thread that a poster has participated in has new posts (like highlighting the mail icon).

Good tutorial B3, thanks. Any idea if they have a large menu of Euro Books? I can always just check out the free trial if you are not sure.

Thank you.

Notifications if a thread that you have posted in has any new posts; like the mail icon to the left highlighted or something like that..