groovinmahoovin

Sports Options shows Wynn as opening -5 at 3:02:12pm on Sunday, moving to -5.5 at 3:04:47 and to -6 at 3:09:17 and I think when I checked earlier Toni had it at -5.5 in roughly the same time period, but of course two books with a low limit opener is a joke.

If you needed a more obvious example of how KKKlay is a complete fraud, this week he gave out Louisville -5.5 (!!!) as a pick, and in his column yesterday talking about his picks he said "Louisville -5-5 at UNC (Now Louisville -10) - This is a great example of why you should be signed up for Outkick VIP [his tout service], you're getting an extra 4.5 points if you check our message board on Sunday afternoon as opposed to the number you're getting today." Louisville -5.5 was a low limit opener. He claimed to have gotten 3000 subscribers to his tout service the first day he offered it, so how many people possibly could have even gotten down on -5.5??

KKKlay is just a run of the mill fraud tout without anything insightful to add. The most obvious example of his fraudulence is that he sells picks while also promoting sportsbook affiliates, so he profits from the pick sales AND any customer losses. He happily promotes whatever sportsbook pays him affiliate money, last year it was Oddsshark/Bovada, this year he's linked up with Todd Fuhrman's Betonline affiliate as well. Hilariously, while he doesn't currently practice law, he's still a member of the Tennessee bar and teaches CLE classes, so the illegality of the affiliate nonsense could end up biting him on the ass. Since his target audience are idiot dude bros and not serious gamblers, he doesn't even attempt to be accurate, for example a year or two ago he did a show with a "gambling expert" who is quite literally a cocktail waitress and golf caddy (Kelly in Vegas), knowing that the dude bros care more about tits than serious gambling info. Her pick for the 2nd day of the NCAA tournament was "Notre Dame +3 because I like playing them as a dog but not a fave." Notre Dame was actually -3. KKKlay had no idea what the line actually was so he didn't even point out the error. Could you imagine taking betting advice from people who think a -3 fave is actually +3?

That includes him risking FIFTEEN UNITS on Mayweather -500 and also a past posted 3 unit play he didn't text to BLAP until the game was over or almost over. He's out of control over there.

Vegas Dave's latest con is selling counterfeit basketball cards: https://twitter.com/hagrin/status/890811118196674562 Can't remember if I mentioned these funnies in another Vegas Dave thread here but here's him getting busted posting "straps of 100s" with obvious 1s in there: https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin/status/828777190653304833 And here's him posting faked screenshots from the Cantor app: https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin/status/823655173226512384

For whatever reason a lot of people seem to think I wrote the article, but Ryan Goldberg is an actual journalist with a fairly long writing career. He's written about horse racing in the past and also quite a few non-gambling articles.

I have no idea what's going on with the mods over there, but I routinely have people on Twitter contact me about issues with books, sometimes minor ones like wagers they can't get graded correctly, other times major ones like payout problems. I usually tell them to sign up at SBR and post on the forum, and/or file an SBR complaint. Many of these issues are with random books that don't even advertise at SBR so it's not like SBR could accuse them of signing up to start trouble with advertiser books. I've probably had at least 10 people in the last year or so, possibly even 20 people, tell me "I signed up and posted and I was immediately banned?" In a lot of cases they were accused of being "ghosts" and these people mostly hadn't even heard of SBR before, or only heard about it in passing, so it's not like they were all previously banned for some sort of indiscretion. I guess those numbnuts must assume that anyone new that's coherent enough to write a post about a book complaint must be some sort of ghost of someone who was previously banned???

Yep, and it's pretty hilarious how obvious the BLAP scam is by looking at Fezzik's records. When he joined Pregame in Jan 2013 and announced the BLAP program, BLAP got off to a hot start winning some ridiculous number of units in 2 months, the most hilariously obvious fraudulent part was that Fezzik was still selling picks at LVA and despite losing on LVA on the Super Bowl, Johnny Detroit announced Fezzik won every Super Bowl bet he gave out to BLAP, as BLAP got all of his LVA winners but none of his losers. Then there was a BLAP conference call Johnny published with several people who appeared to be actual BLAP customers, and from that point until the end of the year Fezzik lost his ass, and the last person who claimed to be a BLAP customer announced in January of 2014 he was done with BLAP because he'd lost too much money. From then until August 2015 while tracked by Johnny Detroit and pedophile Jeff Bloss, Fezzik again kicked ass, and then once ComptrBob started tracking in August 2015, from them until the present Fezzik is down around 90 or 95 units. Amazing how he loses every time Bob tracks him or he appears to have actual customers, yet managed to crush during the time there were no actual BLAP customers and the records were tracked by Pregame employees.

On LVA when Joeflex and CB tracked him for 5 years (2005 and 2009-2012) his win rate was about the equivalent of 49.5% vs -110, so as you note fading wouldn't be profitable. I'm not sure why so many people on Twitter/forums think you can profitably fade a dart thrower. In that period of time Joeflex and CB had him around -210 units and now in the 21 or so months CB has tracked BLAP, he's down roughly another -71u, and that includes some grading BS so the actual record would be a bit worse. (There have been times CB didn't receive plays and Fezzik has freerolled on those, arguing that missing winners should be included while ignoring losers, and other random BS like he routinely claims the Greek will let you buy 2 points for 40 cents when it's actually 60 cents.) Surely it's just a coincidence that the only time over the last 12 years Fezzik has won is when his picks were being tracked by Johnny Detroit and/or a pedophile. I imagine things had gotten so bad for Fezzik's sales that he figured having Bob track him might be his best chance at a hail mary, hoping he'd run hot for a short period of time and could say "What can my critics say now that Bob has verified I'm a winner!"

The FezzDAQ was BS because the bets were completely opaque and past posted. Fezzik would go through his bets from earlier in the day and give a portion to Jeff of whichever ones had picked up the most line value. Any idiot will crush at this if they make a bunch of bets and then cherry pick whichever ones happen to have gained the most line value. He used "I'll show you the ticket!" if anyone questioned any of the bets, but while he did have a verifiable ticket, that doesn't really matter if you aren't documenting the bets in a contemporary manner since any dart thrower will get line value on some of their bets by sheer luck. He also routinely overbet the supposed balance in the "FezzDAQ" account, and included stuff like offshore bonuses. At the time it wasn't really that big a deal because he wasn't selling anything, he'd touted on Wong's Sharp Sports Betting and LVA from roughly 2001-2005 but after a terrible 2005 said he would never sell picks again. But now that he's gone full on fraud tout, he occasionally cites the FezzDAQ in his advertising.

And re: what pokerjoe said "what they lose to the tout would otherwise just be going to the books anyway," I've had debates before with knowledgeable people about whether, as winning gamblers, touts benefit or hurt us, and I think you can reasonably argue either way. I think there's a reasonable argument scam touts make sports betting look worse in the eyes of the general public and that helps keep it illegal outside of a few jurisdictions, and the money the touts take from customers is mostly not going back into the betting pools. Some of these touts charge very large fees, for example on Vegas Insider the touts regularly charge $50 a pick. I suppose it's possible by buying a pick, these people are encouraged to bet larger than they would otherwise, which could still help us. In any case, I only have a tiny influence, I post on a couple forums and only have about 3,700 Twitter followers compared to RJ Bell's 131k, or VegasDave's 126k, or Teddy Covers' 25k. I've had countless people tell me they know someone who works for some media outlet or podcast and "I bet you'd be a great guest on the show!" and I say "I mean feel free to put me in touch but these shows all promote touts so I doubt they want me shitting on their past and future guests." One radio host told the guy who suggested me "Oh I can't have that guy on my show, he trolls good honest pro handicappers like Teddy Covers." We have 7 years of ComptrBob tracking that shows Teddy doesn't win, people showed that host the records, and he just accused Bob of cherry picking only the losing seasons. Another supposed "pro bettor" who makes media appearances told me he won't criticize touts because he doesn't want to make enemies. I mean imagine being someone who supposedly makes your money gambling and worrying about what Vegas Runner or Philly Godfather or whoever thinks about you.

This article is a fantastic example of why I do what I do: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/gambling-software-helped-amateur-make-1300-in-12-days.html This is a blatant advertisement for a shitty tout service where followers won't win long term anyway, but even if the service was +EV, given this guy's bet sizes, there's no way he would win long term paying the $250 a month they charge. I spoke to a guy recently who lost over $10k betting $150 a game following their crap. They claim to "consistently pick 54-55% winners in all major sports", but if you add up their records it shows they only pick around 52.5-53% cherry picking the best lines from square books like Bovada, BetUS, and sportsbook.ag. A monkey could pick 52.5-53% when you are "fading the public" using lines from those books, which can't be duplicated for profit because 1) the limits at those books are too low to overcome their $250 a month fee and 2) those books will just boot you if you consistently bet those teams, in the case of Bovada quickly switch you to a different line set, and in the case of BetUS or sportsbook.ag possibly just stiff you.

I mentioned a few posts back in the thread that the ban was lifted a few days ago.

For some reason 5D doesn't seem to automatically redirect to the secure site, so just go directly to https://www.5dimes.eu/

As far as dumb things people do gambling, there are worse things people do than follow touts, and there are a handful of touts who appear to be providing +EV picks. With regards to the clowns who don't win, as long as the media are promoting these idiots as winners, I am happy to provide a counterpoint. Yes, I've written about dumb betting systems plenty of times. On EOG, a few years back where was a clown called "Ned" who promoted various betting systems, some of which were Martingale. When Bob exposed flaws in the Martingale systems, stiff scammer EOG mod Ballwonder deleted some of Bob's posts and moved others to "the Asylum." Following that kind of horseshit is likely more harmful than following a tout because the Martingale chases can easily bankrupt you when you lose, and it's absurd that forum mods would go out of their way to protect the hucksters who promote these systems, even if the systems are free. I am inclined to think it's dumber to think you can win at gambling by following a double down when you win system vs following a tout, but I am still happy to explain why Martingale systems don't work. I think people should have access to both sides of the story as opposed to the one sided nonsense that the media, censored forums like Pregame, or censored sites like Twitter present. (Twitter allows touts to block those who track their records.) If someone is too lazy to search for verifiable records, or in the cases where I've provided records but been ignored because "I've followed his last 40 picks and he's 28-12! You must be lying!" then I don't give a shit if they lose their money, no. But I am all for mostly uncensored platforms where information can be freely exchanged.