pokerjoe

Big gain for TGF; EOG on the ropes.

Bellagio SB is non-smoking. Caesars is full of cigars. But CET grants line privileges for Diamond cards.

We can argue about the exact %, but shouldn't because it doesn't matter. The stat is meaningless. Sticky, though. I first heard it, in a previous incarnation obviously, 3 decades ago.

Brilliant insight, thank you for sharing.

Every once in a while I get seated next to a poker player on a 24 hour degen binge ... I just change seats.

Natalie Wood. I am old. That is all.

Brick, where are you playing online? And from what country?

I don't want to get in the habit of citing my own damn book, but in it I point out that the best players cap/model AND screenwatch/line grind/SB AP/numbers hit/steamchase/whatever. I also said if you're only going to do one thing, line grind. But there's basically no way anyone bright enough to cap/model successfully would be so stupid as to not understand the importance of at least line shopping, and probably line grinding as well when the best opportunities arise. You can line grind your way to profit. You can cap/model and line grind your way to even greater profit. You cannot cap/model but fail to line shop and get anywhere.

The best ever, to me, was Majorwager, wayyy back in the day. But SBR, while Ganchrow was posting, was very good. Fezzik's Place had a good run, I thought, though I never posted there. Bettorsworld was the first I ever went to, back in pre-history. Do all forums have a shelf life?

Cop, you keep refusing to properly answer Rito's question about why lines move. Saying "money" isn't a good response. Casinos don't move the odds on roulette as the bets get placed. Why would they? Such bets don't indicate error. If the money wagered didn't somewhat indicate line error in sports betting, the openers also would hold steady. But betting DOES indicate inefficiency sometimes, and it can only do that if there is effective handicapping going on.

Yep. Don't drink and post, guys.

I think it's this, and squares mistaking price for juice and so being less comfortable betting at -130. I also don't think it matters much in the long run. Squares, getting a push, just bet again. Their money isn't going anywhere.

Well, if you're referring to the early chapter about making lines, realize that I have to write for two audiences: you guys, and the average square. And for them, I wanted, early in the book, mostly to just change their mindset, to get them thinking in terms of making numbers. Later I try to raise their game a lot, if they want to work at it. But most squares don't want to work at it, so I hope I at least raised their game a little. For the sharps, maybe only the chapter on deducing push frequencies from Pinny's drop down box, maybe how to quickly decide between alternate lines, a few other things, will be of value, but for the super sharp, maybe nothing will be of value.

+EV is better than -EV? Calculating is better than guessing? Working hard is better than being lazy? That's all I got.

Just re-watched the episode where the detectives interrogated the kid. Wow. Sickening. Yet those detectives will keep their jobs. As will the super-douche prosecutor.

Fish, I could just barely figure out how to e-pub, and that consists of just clicking some buttons. Maybe some day.

Fishhead is quoted in it, so there's that. Groovin is cited. Ganchrow, Justin7, MonkeyFOcker, maybe others.

Guys, I have written a book about handicapping and you can get it here: https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Modern-Sports-Betting-Gambling-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1470872488&sr=1-1#nav-subnav It’s free, so no whining about paying too much (and of course if promoting even a free book is a problem here, mods, delete this thread, obv). The book is free to everyone for the next three days, and will always be free to Amazon Prime members. And if I can figure out how to do it, I’ll set up some kind of coupon code thing so forum readers can continue to get it free even without signing up for Amazon Prime (although so far I haven’t been able to figure it out, and it might not be possible). Leave a review. Honest ones are fine. Some of what I’ve written will be controversial, some disputable, some difficult to understand, some wrong. I wrote this book pretty quickly, then spent a few days figuring how to e-pub on Kindle. I didn’t put more hours into it because I’m not going to make any money off it. That’s the truth of e-publishing. I’m okay with that. Because I’m a nerd it was kind of fun to write. And this is the extent of my marketing: giving the book away for free at the forums I’ve enjoyed over the years. Brilliant. But I’m just about done with sports betting. I’m tired of driving from San Diego to Vegas several times a month, I’m somewhat retiring (I’m hitting sixty), and I’m responding to some personal changes. The biggest change is that my old buddy who lived in downtown Vegas has died. I’ve never been such a big shot bettor ($400 to $2,000 is generally my range) that I needed or could afford a real runner, but he spared me the tedium of driving to the Nuggets and enabled me to stay under the radar with WH and Stations. He also allowed me to be out of town a lot. He would, in return for my picks, put in my bets without drawing heat because he’d lose more for himself than he ever won for me. Now—besides losing a friend, of course—I will struggle to get through the end of the year without serious betting problems. And I don’t feel like struggling. I don’t feel like living in Vegas much more, I don’t feel like dealing with the money transfer problems of betting offshore, and I just don’t much feel like fading the grind, really. But I have forever been listening to people at poker tables talk about sports betting and I know how lost they are. I think the average sports bettor is more clueless about this game than the average poker player is about that one. And my grown sons and their friends have been coming to Vegas sometimes and they like betting sports and ask me about it. Trying to explain the biz to them over a beer isn’t going to cut it. As I tried to teach them the basics and show them a few things on spreadsheets, this book kind of happened. Hopefully I haven’t embarrassed myself too much with this. Enjoy.

PS College Preview is way overrated. If you look at the team pages, take out the recaps of prior years and his self-promotion shit, and there isn't much there. With this experience points, it's a good idea, fine, but I don't think PS has any idea of how to properly weight experience, and most likely just pulled the weights he's using out of his ass. Still, in such a situation as this, he's just presenting info, so it's on us to use it or not, properly or not.

Grew up in Gaithersburg/Germantown. No gangs, pretty upscale except for pockets of subsidized housing. Been out west for 25 years, though, so maybe things have changed.

I follow him. Great read, highly recommended. Drives touts screaming into the madhouse. I'm @truepokerjoe there.

Eugene. His prime function was to be smart. He developed the plans for a bullet factory which he gave to Rick, thus making himself expendable as a character. If he wasn't going to die, why the scene where he gives his carefully drafted plans away? And bullets will soon be the coin of the realm.

No amount is enough if you aren't +EV. Any amount is enough if you are +EV, have a job or small grinds that cover expenses, and bet size properly.

All you need to know, really. I can only add, CH, that if you're asking questions, you're not ready. Pros are the ones with the answers. As to living arrangements ... I've had an apartment up here (they're incredibly cheap) and drive up from Oceanside a few times a month. My last hotel bill from about three years ago, from South Point, I think was about $2400 for about seventeen days. Forget that. If you don't want to grind out the comps on machines (which is time consuming and brain draining and living in the hotels is horrible, to me, though I know two guys who've been doing it for years), get an apartment. I've had entire months where I didn't use mine, and it's still a money saver. The edges of living in Vegas are many and you should take time to learn them. For example, on Tuesdays I get a free buffet at the Rio and a $10 freeplay (for having a Diamond Card and local address). Because I'm not good at the small grinds like that, I was here for years before I learned about it. It's not a big deal, obviously, but still it's like $1,500 in annual value, and the town has many, many other angles like that. Make the effort to master them as part of your career. If you outgrow them, you 55% hitting monster you, good. If you don't, they'll help steady your income.

Bump for the update: RAS this year, CFB/CBB; 140-98 Me, NFL/CFB/NBA: 193-133 Comparable win rates, but my sample size is bigger. And I'm not charging anything. And yes my plays are posted before the games start and at fair lines. Sharpsquare follows me and can tell you that. But Chris Harvard, you're wrong about this: Handicappers don't need the information, they have it; squares can get all the information in the world but still lose because they don't know how to use it. Handicappers make their own numbers. That's what handicapping is. The only thing they can say, when asked why they made a bet, is something like, "I made the line +5 and found +7." Copying shit from another website that won't help you win isn't going to help anyone here win. It isn't even a real attempt to help anyone here, it's just ... copying shit from another website that won't help you win.