Propswatcher

I like to prepare in advance before each week to keep the bias to a minimum. I made my lines before Thursday's game and before the LVH advanced came out. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]lvh advance[/TD] [TD]MY LINES[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@NYG -2.5 vs ARI[/TD] [TD]NYG -1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@CIN -5 vs ATL[/TD] [TD]CIN -3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@BAL -3 vs PIT[/TD] [TD]BAL -3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@Buf -1 vs MIA[/TD] [TD]MIA -1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@CAR -2.5 vs DET[/TD] [TD]CAR -1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@SF -6.5 vs CHI[/TD] [TD]SF -7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@TB -2.5 vs STL[/TD] [TD]TB -2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NO -6 @CLE[/TD] [TD]NO -7.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@TEN -2.5 vs DAL[/TD] [TD]TEN -3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@DEN -10.5 vs KC[/TD] [TD]DEN -9.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NE -6 @MIN[/TD] [TD]NE -5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@GB -8.5 vs NYJ[/TD] [TD]GB -10.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]HOU -2.5 @OAK[/TD] [TD]HOU -1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@IND -2.5 vs PHI[/TD] [TD]INDY -1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]@WAS -6.5 vs JAX[/TD] [TD]WAS -7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SEA -3.5 @SD[/TD] [TD]SEA -3.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] We can benefit by looking at the reactions, and sometimes overreactions of week 1's results.

Nishikori opened -110 ish at pinny. It's since moved up to -120. Think he closes around -150.

Agreed quality post. Actually had some discussion with some friends about the BG issue. We came to the conclusion of the same factors PokerJoe mentioned. We also came to the conclusion that perceived edge has to the craziest thing about this racket. A handicapper with at perceived edge, but truly -EV will go broke faster than anyone. (a la Vegas loves amateur card counters) Also enjoyed PokerJoes mention on survivor-ship bias. (the analogy I think of: take 100 dogs and have them each pick between two bowls of food with team names. After 100 picks or so, there will be some dogs hitting 65% and some hitting 35%.) That doesn't mean my lab is the next Billy Walters. I've known some touts that started like this. (Tracked the picks and took the best records to start selling picks.) Taleb's book Fooled by randomness goes into this, very applicable to sports betting. Winning does not necessarily = future winning/talent. So in my opinion we are down to this. We can all learn a good lesson from BG and constantly rethink these questions as we make each wager or use our models. What constitutes an edge? how do you know when you have an edge in your wager? how do you know when you have lost your edge? Few edge examples. #1 CLV #2 information you know that the market doesn't factor #3 Better cost/price than the market. (FH's Packers at Golden Nugget +7 -120 fits into this.)

All the Bama game did was kill all the parlays. Books probably lost money on that game. Sharp $ outweighs public money on many games. ...well at least from books that take any sharp action these days. Usually the books are most liable on a game where sharps pick up the early number then the public piles on. Eventually the books hope they can get money on the other side by moving to an attractive number, but that also leaves them vulnerable to a middle.

Like a couple dogs overnight. Jerzy Janowitz +150 widely available, there are +160's out there. This line is going south. Totally agree with the move, Anderson has trouble against fellow big men. Has not been in good form. Jerzy is healthy again and has looked solid the last couple tourneys. With the serve of Anderson he is involved in many tiebreaks, yet has not fared well in those tiebreaks the last couple years. Kontinen / Nieminen +220 (doubles) They are going up against the fastest rising doubles team Pospisil and Sock. Popsock went on a tear and won wimbledon doubles and just lost a final to the Bryans. Team Popsock is not healthy however. Pospisil is dealing with a shoulder injury and Sock is dealing with a calf injury that caused him to withdraw from singles play. Both seem well enough to play, but certainly a disadvantage in health. Popsock is also hitting the overvalued point IMO. They've had quite a few matches won on the tiebreaker. I don't think the high price is warranted. Kontinen / Nieminen are a formidable team with a record of 18-5. Like the decent size dog here. ​

Liked both those KR, couple rough beats. There has been a tough go for dogs losing tiebreaks early in the open. Many of the favorites have taken money, it looks like over the course of 5 sets the chalk really has the sets to lesson the variance this year. Gonna step lightly with the dogs.

For me what stuck out were the wong teasers available. Broncos teased down to -1 - The Colts aren't much outside of Andrew Luck. Broncos get healthy and added some pieces on defense. With it being a revenge game from last year and first Sunday night game the crowd should be nuts. The Colts taking one in Denver is a tough task. Bears teased down to pk. Technically not a wong tease, but soldier field is also a brutal place to play for opponents. Don't think Manuel can exploit the porous Bears D. Tampa +7 (line way gone now) But maybe there are a few locals out there shading hard on Carolina. Pretty obvious on this one. Carolina has some issues. Newton injury, depletion of receiving corps. Tampa's not great but the game should be close. Steelers pk. Fits into a similar mold as the Bears. Not sure how the Brownies put up any points with that offense. A healthy Steeler team should bounce back this year, not overly concerned about the running back situation. The value of RB keeps going down by the year. This all comes with making sure to get the 2 team -110 teasers. Many books have gone to -120 because they got beat so bad last year, but there are still some good options if one shops around. As far as ATS, most of the #'s the market has tightened up. I do like the Ravens -2. They have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, it's not as talked about as much as Seattle or New Orleans. It has been just as good over the last few years. I rated Cincy a bit lower this year due to the losses in personnel. Ravens are a bit of a mystery as their offense was woeful last year.

Sides 140, 299, 296, 303, 307. total 255

If Nishikori stays "healthy" throughout this first week, he has a nice path to the semis. Future prices were 125-1. Shouldn't be too much of an adjustment from that after the first round, might be worth a stab. lean for tomorrow. Steve Darcis +166. - He has been on a nice hardcourt streak. Ran through the qualifiers pretty easily. Klizan is pretty much a mudballer, been having a tough time on the hard court lately. Concern here would be level of competition, but I think the + price is worth it.

Keenan Allen type year is a great upside comparison for Cooks. I could also see Colston moving more into a Donald Driver possession type receiver. Cooks rightly so is the chalk. I haven't verified this, just eyeball test, but it seems higher pick #1 receivers take a couple years to get acclimated, while lower pick #2 receivers can enjoy early success because of the veteran #1 to fall back on.

Dutchman, I did use the season pythag. The game to game would be better, quite a bit of legwork there. I did use the usual 2.37 factor. It would be interesting to see the variance on those year to year.

Saints are absolutely elite. Had .8 yards per play differential, good for 3rd in the NFL last year. (5.9 YPP on off, 5.1 YPP on def. Also did that playing a top 10 strength of schedule. Loved their draft and offseason. With the Falcons still struggling on the lines and the Panthers primed to regress, Saints could sweep up home field, and are my choice for NFC champs.

Was at an amazing smaller forum that doesn't operate anymore. Been lurking around all the major ones EOG, BT, SBR, covers witnessing each of their shitshows. Definitely want to contribute to TGF to start it off right.

The Pack have real elite talent, but are missing those glue guys that the Pats always seem to acquire/develop. A lot of smart guys really like them this year, but I power rated them slightly below the elite Den, Sea, SF, NO, NE. Fishhead how close is that to your sentiment as a well educated fan?

Going with the consensus Packers. The offense will be elite once again. There are a few holes in the D, not super excited about their D line and linebackers. Expect the Vikings to progress quite nicely with ANY decent qb play, the rest of the roster is filling out nicely. Bearish on both Bears and Lions. Bears did not do enough on defense to jump from 32nd last year. Lions have the talent, but the management decisions and discipline are tough to ignore.

Superbowl prop sheets are great for this. One of my favs in Football- will a team have 3 scores in a row? YES

Both this and the bar bets thread are amazing! Great way to start up a forum. Thanks FH and contributors.

Absolutely, don't disagree with you there. But from a book's perspective it's a significant hold and that is the bread and butter for many books. Syndicates/sharps and the like would be an exception to the rule.

The only thing the sheep do is keep the Vegas doors open. Well for those sportsbooks that aren't just novelties anyways. Not with a -4.55% expectation, but a -30% expectation with parlays. IMO the sheep have little to do with the market on any given game, with few exceptions.

Agree with Raonic playing well, biggest issue he's had is running into Fed, who is in amazing form at 33. Fed 10-0 last 10 sets vs Raonic. Cilic is a long shot that peaks my interest. He's had a very solid season. Besides the last ugly match vs. Stan, Cilic has been very consistent. With the right draw he could be there at the end. A healthy Nishikori would be very tempting, with his return game I'll say he's the "next one" to win a major.

Here's the Pythagorean wins for each team from last year. For those unfamiliar, pythagorean are expected wins based off points scored vs points given. E.G. A team that won a lot of close games but lost a lot of blowouts will have a lower expected pythag win total. Over the years it is a good angle/help to determine which teams progress/regress in wins the next year. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]2013[/TD] [TD]pthag wins[/TD] [TD]actual wins[/TD] [TD]difference[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arizona[/TD] [TD]9.47[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]-0.53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Atlanta[/TD] [TD]5.9[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Baltimore[/TD] [TD]7.1[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Buffalo[/TD] [TD]6.73[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]0.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Carolina[/TD] [TD]11.67[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]-0.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chicago[/TD] [TD]7.32[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cincy[/TD] [TD]11.09[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]0.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cleveland[/TD] [TD]5.47[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dallas[/TD] [TD]8.15[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Denver[/TD] [TD]11.67[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Detroit[/TD] [TD]8.47[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Green Bay[/TD] [TD]7.75[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Houston[/TD] [TD]4.18[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]2.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Indy[/TD] [TD]9.42[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jax[/TD] [TD]3.12[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]-0.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KC[/TD] [TD]11.09[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]0.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mia[/TD] [TD]7.48[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Minny[/TD] [TD]6.09[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #6aa84f]1.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NEW Eng[/TD] [TD]10.5[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]New Orl[/TD] [TD]10.8[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]-0.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYG[/TD] [TD]5.57[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYJ[/TD] [TD]5.37[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-2.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oakland[/TD] [TD]4.93[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]0.93[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Philly[/TD] [TD]9.37[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]-0.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Pit[/TD] [TD]8.23[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SD[/TD] [TD]9.22[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]0.22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SF[/TD] [TD]11.54[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]-0.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sea[/TD] [TD]12.83[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]-0.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Louis[/TD] [TD]7.57[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tampa[/TD] [TD]5.26[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ten[/TD] [TD]7.52[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wash[/TD] [TD]4.79[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.79[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Mods can we merge the two NFL win total threads, thanks

Personally I haven't run the specific numbers, but the cent value is in relation to how many games and how much a win is worth. CFB has less games so each game is worth more. (Not earth shattering info here.)

Dodgers 4, Brewers 0