2w2p2s

The payoffs you have gotten were from the final odds the horses went off at, not the ML. The ML had nothing to do with what you got paid. Look back at any of the races run and look at the discrepancies between the ML and the final odds. The 16% takeout is based on the final pool obviously, and has nothing to do with the ML. You may have bet a 2/1 ML that went off at 3/5 or 8/1.

That is exactly right. My comment was more addressing post #288 and #289.

The ML has nothing to do with the final odds. You can't bet the ML in horse racing.

There is no profitable "system" for betting horses based on the tote or the ML. The ML you guys are referring to is made up by one guy for the track, it's his guess. And even with that, most ML makers won't list a horse as low as he thinks he/she will go or as high as he thinks he/she will go in the extremes. There are groups running the most sophisticated software possible looking for any edge possible in the pools, and they are betting billions. The variance that applies to betting sports and high ML favorites applies to the wagers you are making with regards to W and P on big favorites (or any range of odds for that matter). I know there is more of a tendency to report in forums the bad luck in wagering than there is to report the good luck in wagering, and it seems the late odds changes have been talked about a lot. I promise you guys chasing late steam in horse racing isn't profitable either, lol.

Why would you use the same address anyway? Why didn't you just use their address?

And now it seems TGF has become EOGish. Shame.

Didn't even realize I was trying to win a battle.

BTW, the comment I made at EOG about the worst thing about the thread was you bragging about being a winning horse player was a joke. Sorry if it didn't come off that way.

That's in your head. I don't like internet blowhards, but I don't mind you. I don't take you too seriously............How do you come up with $3 Million? Can somebody answer the "Comment" question?

Of course you don't run a Loss Leader like this yearly. You have target customers you are trying to lure over, running it weekly, monthly or even yearly isn't going to help you gain that many more of your target customer. There may be a time when your customer base does decrease where they will offer incentives like this. Other ADW's will do the same. I'm not "coming at you". You keep stating they will get killed with this promo. You have stated somebody will get fired over this promo. I have tried to give logical explanations on why that's not the case and how the promo could turn out to be incredibly lucrative for Xpressbet. You didn't even know who Xpressbet was, you didn't know who TVG was, and yet you seem to portray yourself an expert in the field. I guess you don't want me to post if I disagree with your post. That's fine. Before we stop talking, can you tell me how to respond to the "comment" section of a post? The comment comes to my PM, also on the board, but I don't see how you can quote it to respond to it.

LOL, are you familiar with the term "loss leader"? I don't want this to sound disrespectful- but I think you have a mental block when it comes to comparing a book with an ADW. It's not comparable. An ADW is a service. Here are the totals from a slow Thursday card at Belmont yesterday: Belmont Park Attendance: Unavailable Mutuel Pool:$769,498.00 ISW Mutuel Pool:$5,219,946.00 One slow day at Belmont, and over $5 Million was wagered through ADW's.

I agree, but the guarantees are always ridiculously low compared to average pool size for what they are guaranteeing. $100K sounded aggressive to me, so I just checked some historical charts on weekday late double races at Santa Anita and on some days they didn't come close to $100K.

Xpressbet has a lot more to be worried about than the current promo, this could be a big problem: http://www.santaanita.com/events/8214/#.VBs0HPldV0o This could turn out to be a nice +EV opportunity.

As Rich and Mike have said, TVG is the largest ADW in the country. They have the power of their TV station which also has alliances to the Fox/Prime Sports channels that at times also carry their broadcast. It is the most widely distributed horse racing network in the world. They are owned by Betfair. Xpressbet is playing catch-up. They do have an alliance with HRTV, but that channel has fewer cable/satellite providers. HRTV also has no alliance with mainstream TV channels like TVG.

If it's really 50%, they will be elated. I think you are greatly underestimating the future benefits they will be getting. The reason for the offer is simple- they are trying to lure players away from TVG. You are greatly disregarding the future profits that will be gained by this promo. $100 isn't enough to get people to change. $1,000 I'm sure is enough to get people to change, and why they did it. This promo could generate MILLIONS in future churn from players that were using TVG exclusively. This will greatly, greatly offset the amount of AP's just using the bonus for a one-time sign up.

Right, but they are also not giving the bonus players any wager rewards either. Saying they are giving away $1K with this bonus is a little deceiving from the Xpressbet side. In the worst possible scenario for them of a guy only betting exactly $2K and cashing out for $2K or more they'll lose less than $800. Impossible for them to actually give away the whole $1K. And I believe the amount of players that cash out the entire $2K just meeting the bonus to be very small. Also, we are AP's discussing this on a gambling board, we are in a very small minority of their new customer base. It may cost them on average $200 per bonus, maybe even less. But like I said, that is probably cheap compared to other marketing avenues and the attention they've gotten.

They won't lose near as much as you're predicting (if anything), and the money they do lose will probably be money much better spent than could ever be spent on advertising. Remember they are making money every time you submit a wager. Subtract commission for $2K in bets from the $1K bonus. Then subtract the amount from people that 1) get back far less than the $1K, 2) get nothing back from the $1K, 3) actually turn a profit from the $1K and continue to bet giving more commissions to Xpressbet. A lot of you guys still have the mindset Xpressbet is a book. It is not. It makes money on churn. They want you to win, they make more money when you do.

They don't give a specific number. This is their rule with regards to cancelling wagers: They do this to protect against pool manipulation. I've hit the limit before with them.

Careful on your use of "Cancels" try. Could mess you up when you really need to use it. They limit the amount you can use weekly and monthly.

Betting 1 minute out. The favorite bumps up from 1/5 to 2/5 at post as the majority of money went into the show pool ($160K of $175K to show on 6). Return of $1K bets = $921.20

Races 1,3,6 at Belmont today should be easy for everybody to bet $1K in each race and be done with 3 accounts. Going to be huge favorites and only a few other runners. System will be simple here.

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