Brutus Buckeye Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 A partner claims using Kelly criterion has given him an edge. I flat bet focusing on getting the best number. Maybe I should switch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRevolver Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Flat bettor. My number one issue is bankroll management. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deal With It Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 I use the newer reformulated Kelley Criterion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Just stick to 1.5% of BR... stay 'in the game' forever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Kelly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 You should bet more when you think you have more edge, but you should be very, very careful about thinking you have more edge. If you think an NFL game should be 3 when it's 6 everywhere, you either assume you have edge or you don't bet anything at all, but you shouldn't assume you have 3 points of edge and you shouldn't use Kelly pure there. But whatever edge you conservatively assume you have on that game, if you find 6' at Stations on that same game, you should definitely bet more, because that extra half point is edge, no doubt, and that edge can be well estimated and plugged into Kelly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 95% of poster have no clue what their edge is ... if they even have one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Flat bet using a sliding scale based upon my equity curve (typically 1% of BR) and perceived edge. Full Kelly betting is borderline insane betting so if you are going to use it then I would encourage using quarter-kelly or a derivative thereof. Not saying people can't succesfully use Full Kelly but I am saying those people are outliers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedge Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Kelly when I have an edge. Flat bet a small amount when I just want to watch a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Full Kelly is great on single independent events as in card games where you can calc exact odds. Simul Kelly in sports events has issues as you cannot achieve true independence. Single sports events (differing days, etc) seems to be OK. But for Simul events, black swans happen too often i.e. those distribution tails are too fat to be Gaussian. So many who do use Kelly usually usually move to 1/2 Kelly at most, usually 1/4 Kelly after a few swan events show up fvcking their BRs. If you don't have the math, or are a dumb fvck like many of the posters pissing on each other over at EOG, use the Century method, i.e. 1/100 of your bankroll on each event, with no more of your BR out than 38%, or the Log limit of Kelly. But even this is for the smarter folks. If truly know yourself to be a bonehead in sports forecasting, use 1/200 per bet and make it last all season so you're not blown out midway. AND DON'T MESS WITH YOUR KID'S COLLEGE MONEY or anything that impacts your family. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Full Kelly is great on single independent events as in card games where you can calc exact odds. Simul Kelly in sports events has issues as you cannot achieve true independence. Single sports events (differing days' date=' etc) seems to be OK. But for Simul events, black swans happen too often i.e. those distribution tails are too fat to be Gaussian. So many who do use Kelly usually usually move to 1/2 Kelly at most, usually 1/4 Kelly after a few swan events show up fvcking their BRs. [/quote'] Great post. If you don't have the math' date=' or are a dumb fvck like many of the posters pissing on each other over at EOG[/b'], use the Century method, i.e. 1/100 of your bankroll on each event, with no more of your BR out than 38%, or the Log limit of Kelly. LOL. Not familiar with the log limit of Kelly, will have to drill down on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 If you don't have the math' date=' or are a dumb fvck like many of the posters pissing on each other over at EOG, use the Century method, i.e. [b']1/100 of your bankroll on each event, with no more of your BR out than 38%[/b], or the Log limit of Kelly. Why is 38% the chosen figure? Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Why is 38% the chosen figure? Thank you. The original Kelly Criterion was set up as a math proof. It was not intended as a simul. bet criterion. Other folks extended it to multiple bets and then calced it to "infinity" i.e. large number of bets at the same time. "They" calced it to 38%. I've found it to be higher in simulation. Frankly, I do believe 38% of your bankroll out at any single interval of time is good enough given that the universe seems to "believe" that events happening at the same time are not independent. I have a few ideas of what might cause this lack of independence, but is is not due to UFOs as Teddy KGB seems to think about human creation stated over at EOG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 The original Kelly Criterion was set up as a math proof. It was not intended as a simul. bet criterion. Other folks extended it to multiple bets and then calced it to "infinity" i.e. large number of bets at the same time. "They" calced it to 38%. I've found it to be higher in simulation. Frankly, I do believe 38% of your bankroll out at any single interval of time is good enough given that the universe seems to "believe" that events happening at the same time are not independent. I have a few ideas of what might cause this lack of independence, but is is not due to UFOs as Teddy KGB seems to think about human creation stated over at EOG. Gotcha. Thanks for getting back to me. If you are so inclined, would enjoy hearing you expound on your ideas about the lack of independence. Time is natures way of keeping everything from happening at once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Gotcha. Thanks for getting back to me. If you are so inclined, would enjoy hearing you expound on your ideas about the lack of independence. Time is natures way of keeping everything from happening at once. Well, actually I won't, certainly not in an open forum. Don't mean to be an ass, but we use it to gain an edge. I used to be pretty free with info when I was posting over at tech area at SBR, but learned better since. This market hoovers up everything... BTW, the Quantum Mechanical boyz say time is a mass illusion...think about it. Causality is a casualty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Well, actually I won't, certainly not in an open forum. Don't mean to be an ass, but we use it to gain an edge. I used to be pretty free with info when I was posting over at tech area at SBR, but learned better since. This market hoovers up everything... BTW, the Quantum Mechanical boyz say time is a mass illusion...think about it. Causality is a casualty. Totally cool. I wouldn't make public posts undermining my edge either. I am going to have to think about your last sentence. Off the cuff, time is an illusion in the sense that tomorrow never comes because it never catches up sort of thing? I think Thomas Mann, whom I used to devour, spoke about these types of things, but I could be wrong, many moons since I read him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spankie Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 I am what I call a "Psycho Bettor". Basically if I deposit $500 it will be either $5000 or $0 within a week. No flat betting, just chaos and mayhem and all ins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Ever since I was a young boy, I've played the silver ball. From Soho down to Brighton I must have played them all. But I ain't seen nothing like him In any amusement hall... That deaf dumb and blind kid Sure plays a mean pin ball ! He stands like a statue, Becomes part of the machine. Feeling all the bumpers Always playing clean. He plays by intuition, The digit counters fall. That deaf dumb and blind kid Sure plays a mean pin ball ! He's a pin ball wizard There has got to be a twist. A pin ball wizard, S'got such a supple wrist. 'How do you think he does it? I don't know! What makes him so good?' He ain't got no distractions Can't hear those buzzers and bells, Don't see lights a flashin' Plays by sense of smell. Always has a replay, 'n' never tilts at all... That deaf dumb and blind kid Sure plays a mean pin ball. I thought I was The Bally table king. But I just handed My pin ball crown to him. Even on my favorite table He can beat my best. His disciples lead him in And he just does the rest. He's got crazy flipper fingers Never seen him fall... That deaf dumb and blind kind Sure plays a mean pin ball.!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 I am what I call a "Psycho Bettor". Basically if I deposit $500 it will be either $5000 or $0 within a week. No flat betting, just chaos and mayhem and all ins. This makes more sense than betting 1% to me (FIVE DOLLARS?). At least if you go 2-0 you have 1700 give or take and then you can be a be more selective on when to lay a few hundred and when to lay the hammer down. Unless you are just betting for fun, I see no reason to bet 5 dollars. Not many people realistically have a 100,000 dollar bankroll. How could I ever get down large play if I needed to reserve 99% of my BR?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 especially when factoring in bonuses, i think chris/spankie approach is better for almost all posters/bettors. the use of varying amounts of "bankroll" implies that it could never be replenished and doesn't move. if i just inherited 500k (i wish) then my bankroll just went up big time, why should a game i like this week be bet at 5k and last week only $100? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lloyd Christmas Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 95% of poster have no clue what their edge is ... if they even have one Excellent point as to why most shouldn't use Kelly. For me, flat bet if it's my own work, Kelly if I'm pricing something against the market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 especially when factoring in bonuses' date=' i think chris/spankie approach is better for almost all posters/bettors. the use of varying amounts of "bankroll" implies that it could never be replenished and doesn't move. if i just inherited 500k (i wish) then my bankroll just went up big time, why should a game i like this week be bet at 5k and last week only $100?[/quote'] Yep. I think if 1% of you BR is 1000+ than it makes complete sense to bet 1%. Betting over 1 mil a year, even hitting 55% is lucrative. If my BR is 500 post-up at a time, shit I would rather volunteer at my local community center than waste my energy capping a game, just to win enough money to buy a hot dog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hustledouble Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 I think flat betting is much better when you're a volume bettor or want a simplified system. It's a much more pure pick-winners sort of strategy. Kelly and other weighted measures definitely have their place. I feel like very different types of gamblers use one or the other. I try to be a little more in the middle, but I am wary of that because it's sounds like something an amateur would do because they don't know what is better. I think flat betting is the way want to go if you're trying to do it professionally. If you view it as an investment market Kelly creates a lot of volatility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chickadee Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Unless you're a professional gambler (at which point i'd assume the whole question should be answered by yourself) the whole bankroll thing is a misnomer. The money you have to bet simply should be money you can afford to lose for everyone else. So whatever system regulating bet amounts is arbitrary unless you're just looking to extend the life of it whereby something like 1%/BR would be a good rule to follow. If people want to follow strict BR guidelines it's fine, but realistically there's no point implemending a system for most people since they're not pros. In fact I think it would be better for some just to go 5%/20%+ (or whatever their pain threshold can handle) as flat betting something like $50 a game over the long haul would be like water torture for 99% of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Not like anyone here has control over other people... But these guys making 4-5 WU transfers to CR per month have really hurt the rest of us Those ^ guys are the ones making 200.00 deposits and betting 110.00 per bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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