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When I bet Namajunas she was at -175, she's now at -240.  If she wins she'll get another title shot but she probably needs more experience.  No idea why the UFC threw all their weight behind Van Zant when Rose is just as pretty and has a better personality.

 

Nurm will probably massacre this guy.  It's probably just as well that he got an easier fight than Ferguson after two years.  If he wins he gets a title shot.  Good article by Bloody Elbow on why Nurm is so great.

 

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/4/14/11430114/ufc-tampa-judo-chop-controlling-chaos-striking-khabib-nurmagomedov-dos-anjos-horcher-mma-technique

 

Islam Makhlachev -186

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My big bet was on Nurm vs Ferguson but that's gone.  I like two fights on this card, Namajunas that I posted a while ago and now Makhachev.  They're not big.  Gamburyan versus Dodson might be worth betting if the line gets a little better but probably should get advice from other people

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My big bet was on Nurm vs Ferguson but that's gone.  I like two fights on this card, Namajunas that I posted a while ago and now Makhachev.  They're not big.  Gamburyan versus Dodson might be worth betting if the line gets a little better but probably should get advice from other people

Possible letdown spot for Dodson after facing better competition, but not sure I trust Manny at this point in his career.

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Possible letdown spot for Dodson after facing better competition, but not sure I trust Manny at this point in his career.

Yeah.  Only like that Manny will be much larger and Dodson might be affected by the realization that he's never beating MM.  Not much to go on.  Plus good team versus not so good teams.  Pass.

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I have a round robin going for this event  I took:

 

wash capitols game 1-winner

namajunas-210

dodson-480

dariush-165

jones and johnson(next weekend on the 23rd)

 

feeling pretty good about it

 

also like dodson under 2.5 rounds as I think he gets the finish more times than not

texeira/evans under 3.5 at +125 looks very nice as well

 

I'm baffled by the line movement in the Dariush/Chiesa bout.  Dariush has looked really good and shown marked improvement in his last few fights.  Chiesa is the bigger guy walking around but is a two trick pony(takes you down and grinds out decision or sub via guillotine).  I see Dariush having more routes to victory and only needing to avoid getting taken down.

 

Rashad could be a live dog here as he says he feels 100% healthy for the first time in years.  Texeira is very dangerous(heavy hands and BJJ blackbelt) so Evans movement and footwork better be on point.

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