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TB could be really good if their starters stay/get healthy

 

Archer/Odor/Smyly/Cobb/Moore is by far the best rotation in the division, nobody close. But Cobb is on the DL to start the year, Moore hasnt been able to stay healthy, Smyly coming off injury plagued season. But with good health this is a top 3-5 rotation in baseball. The lineup is average and the pen isnt great on paper but TB usually surpasses expectations on both those fronts.

 

Really any of the 5 teams could win the East and not shock me. Almost any of them could finish last also

I'm going to be looking for lefties vs Rays until they show no issues...vs Dickerson,Loney,Kiermeirer,Brad Miller,Logan Morrison

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Tripp tell me about the Jays, pal

 

Their line up is phenomenal. What's the deal with Edwin?

 

Pitching would scare me though.

Jays are a lot like the Red Sox as I can see them having a huge gap between how good they could be but also how bad things could get for them in a hurry. They arent like the Dodgers or Cubs who you can pretty much pencil in for 85+ wins at worst (barring catastrophic injuries) 

 

Jays were the best team in baseball last year by any advanced metric. Their run differential was off the charts impressive. And on paper the only real loss is David Price, which is obv huge. You dont just replace a top 5 pitcher in baseball. But with that said they only had him less than half the season and they replace his production somewhat by getting a full season of Stroman this year

 

From there the rotation sets up as:

 

1 Stroman

2 Dickey

3 Estrada

4 Happ

5 Sanchez

 

Stroman I was slow to like coming up to the majors because of his size. i knew he was dominating the minors but at 5'9 wasnt sure he had the ceiling of guys like Sanchez and Norris (the other top minor prospects at the time). But all the kid has done is pitch lights out and embrace any big moment that comes his way. Im still not sure he is a high end ace, but im comfortable with him going into the year as the #1. Would have preferred him as the #2 and Price back as the #1 but ownership is too cheap to give anybody big money

 

Then with Dickey, Estrada and Happ i think you are hoping for the same things. around 200 ip of solid, #3 type production. None of them are expected to be ace quality and they dont need to be with the offense Toronto has. But they have to be serviceable. Estrada replicating last season would be amazing, but also is unlikely (advanced stats had him as quite lucky to finish with the numbers he did). But even his ERA rises from 3.13 to 3.7 or so on the year Id take that. Between 3.5 and 4 era is where Id ask these pitchers to finish and be happy with that result

 

Sanchez is the big mystery one. He has probably the best stuff of anybody on this staff, Stro included. He has also had walk issues as a starter and been flip flopped back and forth between starter/reliever, which hasnt worked out for guys like Joba and Phil Hughes who were also top prospects once upon a time. He was starting to look good as a starter last season before the injury and then after the injury came back as a reliever so we will see how he works into this role at the start of the year. My guess is starts out only getting to 5-6 ip most of the time but hopefully by May starts to get into a rhythm a bit and the endurance picks up

 

Overall rotation isnt great but not sure its quite as bad as some make it out to be either. You cannot expect the offense to score as much as last year, thats just an insane number to replicate so these guys will have to step up, along with the bullpen. Where the jays really start to face issues in their rotation is their depth. They tried to solve that somewhat I think with the addition of Chavez, someone who can spot start and be decent for 5-6 ip. They also have Hutch down the minors but who knows what he can provide after being god awful last season. But we all know in baseball you dont go through a season with 5 starters, you need about 7-8 guys you can throw out there and not sure the Jays have the options in the minors for when injuries hit

 

The bullpen is OK. I like Osuna a lot, sounds like he will start as the setup man and Storen the closer. Im OK with that even though i think Osuna is better because I dont fall into the trap of assuming games are closed in the 9th. Making Osuna the setup man even gives the Jays more range on when to use him instead of wasting him in the 9th up 3 agains the bottom of the order. If the game is on the line in the 6th or 7th and you need to use you throw him out there and let him get the big guys out. Same thing the Yankees are able to do with Betances. Cecil started last year shaky but was unbelievable in the 2h. If he can provide that again as a lefty out of the pen that gives the Jays 3 nice arms at the end of the game. The depth beyond that is a bit shaky 

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I love Stroman. It's the Estrada Dickey Happ trio I don't trust one bit. Maybe Happ figured it out. Can't see all 3 replicating last year at all. But like you said with the run support they should receive it will definitely hide their flaws.

 

It's gonna be an interesting year though. Especially in the East.

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The lineup is of course outstanding

 

Sounds like they will start with Pillar as leadoff (id have a short leash on him unless he has become a better hitter)

 

1 Pillar

2 Donny

3 Joey Bats

4 Edwin

5 Tulo

6 Colabello/Smoak

7 Martin

8 Saunders

9 Goins

 

Also have Travis rehabbing and hopefully up sometime in May or early June- dont need to rush him before hes ready.

 

You have 4 monster bats in the middle, solid bats at the end (hoping Colabello can produce again but thats no sure thing). Also a very strong defensive group as Tulo, Goins, Martin and Pillar are all fantastic defensively. Joey Bats doesnt have the range he once had but great arm in the OF. Smoak very strong defensively off the bench or spot starting. 

 

Where things could go wrong is possible injury concerns. Bautista was healthy most of last year but has had injuries in the past. Edwin already has an oblique issue that he is just coming back from. With a limited spring and him being a notoriously slow starter (has been brutal the first month the past two years) i dont expect much out of him in April, and like always i expect people to panic about it. He will be fine as long as hes healthy though. Tulo is a worry since hes always hurt and has to prove he can mash outside of coors. I think he'll be good this year though, just not Coors numbers good.

 

I dont expect Donaldson to produce the same as last year as thats likely too much to ask of anybody not named Trout or Harper. But no reason to think he wont be great. Pillar i dont love in the leadoff spot and Im hoping its Travis' spot if he can come back to the level he was at last year prior to the injury when he was an all star caliber 2b. There is also Pompey as a leadoff option but he has to prove he can get on base first to be given a starting job and then the leadoff spot. He was great as a pinch runner for the jays late last year but cant steal first as they say

 

Overall no reason to not rank the offense best in baseball going into the year but expecting 891 runs again is asking too much. If they hit 800 this year Ill be happy and they will almost certainly still end the year highest scoring team in baseball (second highest last year was 764 by the Yanks)

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I love Stroman. It's the Estrada Dickey Happ trio I don't trust one bit. Maybe Happ figured it out. Can't see all 3 replicating last year at all. But like you said with the run support they should receive it will definitely hide their flaws.

 

It's gonna be an interesting year though. Especially in the East.

Well Dickey doesnt have tough numbers to replicate. 3.91 is solid and about what i expect again from him. He will have dominant outings he will have crap outings and he will have things in between. Thats the life of a knuckeballer. 

 

Estrada is the one with the 3.13 that is tough to see happening again. Happ did his damage with the Pirates in the NL, think he had a 2 era his last 13 starts or so? No way that happens in the AL East in a hitters park like Toronto. But if he gives them a 3.8 ill be happy

 

But if you told me one of those three guys would have an era closer to 4.5 or higher it wouldnt blow me away. Jays have also become somewhat known for having at least one pitcher blow up year to year. First it was Ricky Romero who was supposed to be the ace (and looked the part early in his career) and then he just lost it being the worst pitcher in baseball (era of 5+). Then the next year they brought in Josh Johnson, superstud from Florida. Only issue for him was injuries. But when he got the jays his issue was sucking, again posting an era of 5+. Then last year it was opening day starter Hutch who posted a 5+ era despite the great record thanks to the offense. 

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For some reason I thought Dickey was around 3.5. I remember Romero. Thought he was gonna be a stud. Last I heard Johnson signed I think a minor league deal with SD either last year or the year before

Same on romero. There was no reason to predict a collapse and complete meltdown in his career, it just happened. Looked like a top 20 pitcher in baseball and then within 2-3 years was completely out of baseball

 

Johnson signed with SD last year I know (after costing himself tens, if not hundreds, of millions with his shit year in Toronto in his walk year) and was looking OK in ST until he suffered a season ending injury. Not sure if hes still there this year but havent heard any news of him pitching 

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Astros, Rangers, DBacks, Giants.. A's and Angels just don't cut it same with M's.. Dodgers take a step backwards and the Padres and Rockies stink..... Nationals take NL East and Cubs take NL Central.... Giants, Cards and D backs battle for Wild Cards... on a side note hope Bear posts his baseball pics in the sand box.. Yanks if he is as good as he says he is... Maybe he can get out of his cage?

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Same on romero. There was no reason to predict a collapse and complete meltdown in his career, it just happened. Looked like a top 20 pitcher in baseball and then within 2-3 years was completely out of baseball

 

Johnson signed with SD last year I know (after costing himself tens, if not hundreds, of millions with his shit year in Toronto in his walk year) and was looking OK in ST until he suffered a season ending injury. Not sure if hes still there this year but havent heard any news of him pitching

Just read that he needed a 3rd TJ surgery at the end of September last year.
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Cleveland Indians

 

Best staff in the majors.

 

Kluber

Carrasco

Salazar

Bauer

Tomlin / Anderson

 

Pen is solid with Allen as the best relief pitcher WAR in 2015. Expect the same. They have shitty lefties in pen, only down fall.

 

Michael Brantley will start season possibly on DL from shoulder surgery. Shouldn't miss too much time. He's their best offensive player.

 

Lindor is the best SS in game and will be incredible watching him this year.

 

Lineup is still a mystery. Added Napoli but OF on opening day will be weak. Raja Davis, Naquin, Chisenhall.

 

Will add more later

 

WTF kind of outfield is that?

 

Chisenhall hurt too.

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Dodgers preview:

 

Lineup if it were up to me.

 

1. Crawford

2. Kendrick

3. Gonzo

4. Turner

5. Seager

6. Puig

7. Joc

8. Grandal/Ellis

 

 

Vs Lefties Van Slyke.

 

 

 

Dodgers had no chemistry last season and getting rid of Mattingly was long overdue.  Not sure what to expect from Roberts but anyone is better than Mattingly.

Dodgers start the season with a lot of injuries, luckily they have a lot of depth so it won't be too much of an issue.  Either will be gone for a while and the Dodgers won't lose a step.   Kendrick, Grandal, Puig and Seager are all banged up.     The glaring weakness with the Dodgers is their lack of speed, I am not sure anyone on the team will have more than 20SB's.   Nobody is a true leadoff hitter and no one is that great at getting on base.  Dodgers will need to rely on power and timely hitting more than most teams and that is a concern.   The Dodgers have a very capable lineup with very good hitters like Turner, Gonzo, Kendrick, Seager among a couple of others. 

 

 

The Dodgers rotation will miss Zack but I don't think he was worth the price tag and some regression is definitely expected.   The Dodgers rotation starts the season out thin with injuries to Anderson(5 months), McCarthy (who knows), Ryu  (June).  Kershaw is by far the best pitcher in baseball and a true workhorse. 0.88 WHIP last season over 300 STRIKEOUTS,  beast.    Meada has been compared to Kuroda and that would be a pleasant surprise if he could be as good.   Not sure what to expect from Kazmir,   he is injury prone too so would not be surprised if he is injured on and off this season. 

 

Alex Wood allows to many baserunners for my liking and has a weird delivery that makes me think he will be injured at some point.   Don't think his ceiling is that high, he is a 4-5 rotation type of guy.  ERA probably around 4.  

 

Bolsinger will miss 3+ starts at least and he had a good season but in no way do I trust him and his 89mph fastball.   Frias is capable but probably won't pitch more than 5-6 at the very most.

 

As you can see the Dodgers will need Meada and Kazmir to both exceed expectations to compete in a tough NL WEST. 

 

The bullpen is actually pretty solid. 

Kenley is one of the best closers in the game and I feel very confident in his abilties.  I am a big fan of Chris Hatcher, he will be our 7th or 8th inning guy.  Blanton should be decent for long relief, Howell will shutdown lefties and Liberatore and Baez are solid pitchers.

 

 

Dodgers will be two different teams this season, the roster as of now we most definitely be different then that of before the all star break and or trade deadline.   Hopefully Kazmir and Meada are reliable starters because if not the Dodgers could have a very long April, May and even June.  Even when Anderson, Ryu and McCarthy comeback we have no idea how good they be.   

 

 

The front office needs to add some speed to this lineup, the Dodgers could very well use a true leadoff guy who has speed and the ability to get on base. The Dodgers need some luck with their rotation.     Dodgers could have a rough start, but if they get their shit together and make some smart roster moves they could compete.

 

Lot's of if's..  

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To bad the Dodgers didn't have something to offer the Yankees for Gardner. Not that I want to get rid of him but he was shopped around this winter. But they wanted to much. He has a great contract to which made them want more for him. But unless they turned one of their outfielders around to someone else it probably couldn't have happened. But he would have been a nice piece to add to the top of that line up.

 

What are your thoughts in Maeda from what you have seen of him so far this spring?

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Jays are a lot like the Red Sox as I can see them having a huge gap between how good they could be but also how bad things could get for them in a hurry. They arent like the Dodgers or Cubs who you can pretty much pencil in for 85+ wins at worst (barring catastrophic injuries) 

 

Jays were the best team in baseball last year by any advanced metric. Their run differential was off the charts impressive. And on paper the only real loss is David Price, which is obv huge. You dont just replace a top 5 pitcher in baseball. But with that said they only had him less than half the season and they replace his production somewhat by getting a full season of Stroman this year

 

From there the rotation sets up as:

 

1 Stroman

2 Dickey

3 Estrada

4 Happ

5 Sanchez

 

Stroman I was slow to like coming up to the majors because of his size. i knew he was dominating the minors but at 5'9 wasnt sure he had the ceiling of guys like Sanchez and Norris (the other top minor prospects at the time). But all the kid has done is pitch lights out and embrace any big moment that comes his way. Im still not sure he is a high end ace, but im comfortable with him going into the year as the #1. Would have preferred him as the #2 and Price back as the #1 but ownership is too cheap to give anybody big money

 

Then with Dickey, Estrada and Happ i think you are hoping for the same things. around 200 ip of solid, #3 type production. None of them are expected to be ace quality and they dont need to be with the offense Toronto has. But they have to be serviceable. Estrada replicating last season would be amazing, but also is unlikely (advanced stats had him as quite lucky to finish with the numbers he did). But even his ERA rises from 3.13 to 3.7 or so on the year Id take that. Between 3.5 and 4 era is where Id ask these pitchers to finish and be happy with that result

 

Sanchez is the big mystery one. He has probably the best stuff of anybody on this staff, Stro included. He has also had walk issues as a starter and been flip flopped back and forth between starter/reliever, which hasnt worked out for guys like Joba and Phil Hughes who were also top prospects once upon a time. He was starting to look good as a starter last season before the injury and then after the injury came back as a reliever so we will see how he works into this role at the start of the year. My guess is starts out only getting to 5-6 ip most of the time but hopefully by May starts to get into a rhythm a bit and the endurance picks up

 

Overall rotation isnt great but not sure its quite as bad as some make it out to be either. You cannot expect the offense to score as much as last year, thats just an insane number to replicate so these guys will have to step up, along with the bullpen. Where the jays really start to face issues in their rotation is their depth. They tried to solve that somewhat I think with the addition of Chavez, someone who can spot start and be decent for 5-6 ip. They also have Hutch down the minors but who knows what he can provide after being god awful last season. But we all know in baseball you dont go through a season with 5 starters, you need about 7-8 guys you can throw out there and not sure the Jays have the options in the minors for when injuries hit

 

The bullpen is OK. I like Osuna a lot, sounds like he will start as the setup man and Storen the closer. Im OK with that even though i think Osuna is better because I dont fall into the trap of assuming games are closed in the 9th. Making Osuna the setup man even gives the Jays more range on when to use him instead of wasting him in the 9th up 3 agains the bottom of the order. If the game is on the line in the 6th or 7th and you need to use you throw him out there and let him get the big guys out. Same thing the Yankees are able to do with Betances. Cecil started last year shaky but was unbelievable in the 2h. If he can provide that again as a lefty out of the pen that gives the Jays 3 nice arms at the end of the game. The depth beyond that is a bit shaky 

 

 

No way are the Dodgers penciled into 85 wins with their current roster.  No leadoff man, bunch of injuries, rotation very thin. 

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To bad the Dodgers didn't have something to offer the Yankees for Gardner. Not that I want to get rid of him but he was shopped around this winter. But they wanted to much. He has a great contract to which made them want more for him. But unless they turned one of their outfielders around to someone else it probably couldn't have happened. But he would have been a nice piece to add to the top of that line up.

 

What are your thoughts in Maeda from what you have seen of him so far this spring?

 

 

I like him.  1.89 ERA in 19 innings.  I have heard comparisons of Kuroda.  

 

Never know what you are going to get from Asian pitchers but I think he'll be a 3.7ERA type pitcher.  I don't think he'll dominate.but his slider is good enough to get him out of jams.   Decent #2 #3 pitcher.

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