Luck Metric in NBA Reveals Hidden Value in this team for the playoffs

[maron]

Team Rankings has some good new stuff as well as some items that appear to border on psuedo science or vodoo.

 

Took a loot at their Luck Metric and the values they assigned to NBA teams..

 

Some Observations

 

• Luck Box Warriors lead the field with a value of +7.3
• San Antonio 4th in league with + 2.7
• Cleveland 5th with +2.5

 

Figured it is a cute little list and I enjoy numbers so I looked further down and found this

 

19th Oklahoma City -1.1

 

 

Well took a morning walk for exercise and chewed this over.

 

If one were to believe this value is real, what can we translate it into....

 

Best I can figure is that it can be used for playoff series pricing in best of 7's

 

so when Oklahoma city meets Golden State or San Antonio, the length of the series is supposed to ensure that luck and other factors even out..

 

so the price on Oklahoma City to get past the next round will be better than it should because of the breaks being equal and see the Thunder having an uptick from it...

 

 

then again might not mean a thing....

 

 

[Chickadee]

I have bets on Indiana/Detroit to win the east.

I think the value will be in whoever matches up against Toronto in the first round.

Cliche by now I guess but they haven't fixed their offensive problems despite the regular season record

since they are still predicated heavily on guard play and FTA will not be awarded with regularly come playoffs.

[The Dark Man]

Luck ratings are just a metric that shows the calculable difference between wins and expected wins.

 

I do not give the stat much weight on it's own. Combined with SOS and HCA, it can produce an edge.