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projecting ncaa football playoffs assuming some teams win/lose


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Here are the FACTS

 

MSU is a mere two spots behind TCU in the committee poll right now.......

 

 

TCU plays four games against KSU, Kansas, Iowa State, and Texas

 

MSU plays FIVE games against Ohio State, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, and probably Nebraska in conference title game.

 

 

If both win out, MSU receives the nod by the committee over TCU.......this is but one of many bad scenarios for TCU.

 

Have to disagree, i cant see any way the committee has MSU make that jump with both winning out unless they are otherworldly impressive in all their games and TCU squeaks out ugly wins

 

TCU win vs Kansas St will be seen as way more impressive than Mich St beating Ohio St. Hell, K State is ranked higher than Michigan St currently so K State winning out very well could get them into the playoffs also

 

Kansas/Iowa St/Texas isn't that different from Maryland/Rutgers/Penn State. Neither trio of games would result in impressive wins on a resume. So IDK what you see that will have Mich St making the jump. TCU already ahead, arguably has the toughest matchup remaining on either of their schedules and would win in the eyes of most a tougher conference.

 

I can possibly see TCU getting left out for Fla St, Oregon and two SEC teams, but hard to envision a scenario where a big 10 team makes the playoffs. They will need tons to go their way

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Have to disagree, i cant see any way the committee has MSU make that jump with both winning out unless they are otherworldly impressive in all their games and TCU squeaks out ugly wins

 

TCU win vs Kansas St will be seen as way more impressive than Mich St beating Ohio St. Hell, K State is ranked higher than Michigan St currently so K State winning out very well could get them into the playoffs also

 

Kansas/Iowa St/Texas isn't that different from Maryland/Rutgers/Penn State. Neither trio of games would result in impressive wins on a resume. So IDK what you see that will have Mich St making the jump. TCU already ahead, arguably has the toughest matchup remaining on either of their schedules and would win in the eyes of most a tougher conference.

 

I can possibly see TCU getting left out for Fla St, Oregon and two SEC teams, but hard to envision a scenario where a big 10 team makes the playoffs. They will need tons to go their way

 

What about the potential of MSU beating a probable top ten team in Nebraska in the conference title game, you keep omitting this in your equations.

 

MSU runs the table they are more worthy of TCU by the committee, even if they play Iowa in the Big Ten title game.

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Just noticed, PlayoffStatus gives TCU a 2% chance of making the playoffs if they win out......LOLOL.....thought my personal 29% figure was a tad high, LOL.

 

Mike, ship those pizza pts brother!!!

 

 

2% yeah ok. that's why they are around 10-1 to win the national championship

 

that site's numbers are so messed up, they have ucla as 8% to get in the playoff with 3 losses, and auburn 87% with 2 losses :smiley-laughing001:

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here you go fishhead, max bet the NO with every dollar and every buddy you can find. how can they have a 6% chance of winning the national championship when they only have a 2% chance of getting in the playoff? EASY MONEY

[TABLE=class: lines, border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0, width: 625]

[TR=class: linesRow]

[TD]Sat 11/8[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]28011 TCU wins NCAA Champ[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]+900 [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: linesRowBot]

[TD]12:00PM[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]28012 Field wins NCAA Championship[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]-1610 [/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

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The 2% is not my number........Mike' date=' hope for Kstate to upset TCU, then buy your family pizza with the pts saved, LOL[/quote']

 

 

even at your 29% number, let's say 70% chance of winning out, that would put tcu's chances of getting in the playoffs at 20% or so.

 

so no juice line of 12-1 (8% winning it all) implies that if tcu gets in the playoff, they have a 40% chance of winning it. not even close to right, so either the market is way off or your 29% is way off

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MSU, Ohio State, and Nebraska all control their destiny more than TCU......BUT, none of these three may not run the table, TCU better hope not.

 

 

Shit final 3 games and no conference title game will have the Frogs buried in muddled waters at crunch time in most cased scenarios.......

 

 

agree that it's muddy waters at the end

 

but the committee might have a very hard time dropping someone out of the top 4 just because they played a cupcake or had a bye. it will be interesting to say the least what happens at the end, once you're in the 4 horsemen are you in until playing yourself out? or does someone sneak in the back door...

 

i think it's like the NWO, once you're in the top 4 it's 4 LIFE

 

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MSU, Ohio State, and Nebraska all control their destiny more than TCU......BUT, none of these three may not run the table, TCU better hope not.

 

 

Shit final 3 games and no conference title game will have the Frogs buried in muddled waters at crunch time in most cased scenarios.......

 

 

michigan state now with a loss

 

nebraska is 6 point underdog at wisconsin

 

auburn is an underdog at georgia, florida st barely favored at miami, miss st/bama playing each other, 3 of the top 4 could easily lose on saturday...

 

AND YET PLAYOFF STATUS REDUCES THE ODDS OF TCU MAKING IT DOWN TO 1% :smiley-laughing001:

 

i guess 5dimes doesn't know what they're doing... [TABLE=class: lines, border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0, width: 926]

[TR=class: linesRow]

[TD]Sat 11/15[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]28007 TCU wins NCAA Champ[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] +700 [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: linesRowBot]

[TD]12:00PM[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]28008 Field wins NCAA Championship[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] -1100 [/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

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michigan state now with a loss

 

nebraska is 6 point underdog at wisconsin

 

auburn is an underdog at georgia, florida st barely favored at miami, miss st/bama playing each other, 3 of the top 4 could easily lose on saturday...

 

AND YET PLAYOFF STATUS REDUCES THE ODDS OF TCU MAKING IT DOWN TO 1% :smiley-laughing001:

 

i guess 5dimes doesn't know what they're doing... [TABLE=class: lines, border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0, width: 926]

[TR=class: linesRow]

[TD]Sat 11/15[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]28007 TCU wins NCAA Champ[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] +700 [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: linesRowBot]

[TD]12:00PM[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]28008 Field wins NCAA Championship[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] -1100 [/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Auburn wont be in the top 4

 

Top four will be Miss St, FSU, Bama and Oregon. Oregon should win out in the reg season, they seem like the safest bet to make the playoffs right now

 

TCU needs to be cheering hard for Miss St and/or Miami Fla this weekend. They shouldn't leap Miss St even if Miss St loses as their 1 loss resume will be easily superior to TCU's. If Miss St wins though it all but knocks Bama out of the picture and makes room for TCU as #4. Also think TCU would get in before Fla St if both have one loss so miami victory should put them in the top 4 going forward

 

A lot more excitement this year though, playoff format has helped college football big time

 

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