Mo Didley DFS

[August West]

cee thanks for posting the owned %'s.

[Mofome]

 

Chicago @ Houston

Vegas Projected Score: Texans 25, Bears 19

 

With J.J. Watt (back) cleared to go and the Bears last-minute scrambling to piece together an offensive line, Chicago-Houston has the appearance of a severe mismatch up front. This is a game where the Bears are unlikely to score many points and positive script is likely for the Texans, potentially setting up Lamar Miller for one of the biggest workloads of his career. LT Duane Brown (quad) isn't ready and rookie C Nick Martin (ankle) is out for the year, but line worries are overblown for Miller, who ran behind the NFL's worst run-blocking unit in Miami the past two seasons and still averaged 4.81 yards per carry, a two-year mark superior to Le'Veon Bell (4.76), Doug Martin (4.49), Adrian Peterson (4.48), Mark Ingram (4.42), DeMarco Murray (4.35), and LeSean McCoy (4.30). Miller's main obstacle in Miami was the coaching staff's refusal to use him as a bellcow, a problem fixable by Bill O'Brien, whose 2014 and 2015 Texans finished first and fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts. While the Bears' remade front seven is probably going to surprise people this season, I like taking my chances on a versatile home-run hitter like Miller when I know he's going to be fed. He should eat in Week 1. ... In terms of personnel, Chicago's biggest vulnerabilities will be against the pass, where top edge rusher Pernell McPhee (knee) went on PUP and RCB Kyle Fuller (knee) and LCB Tracy Porter (concussion) are returning from late-camp injuries. Underrated by the fantasy community, Brock Osweiler is in a quietly-excellent spot surrounded by dynamic pass catchers on an up-tempo team which has ranked first and eighth in offensive plays since O'Brien took over. Osweiler is a recommended two-quarterback-league start and worthy of a glance in DFS.

 

While the game script sets up more kindly for Miller, the individual matchups are better for Texans pass catchers. Based on where they lined up this preseason, I'm expecting DeAndre Hopkins to mainly draw 30-year-old journeyman Porter while Kyle and Will Fuller do battle on the opposite end. Kyle Fuller underwent a knee scope in mid-August. He returned to practice Monday, but is questionable for Week 1 with fourth-round pick Deiondre' Hall (Northern Iowa) as the next man up. With Will Fuller coming off a limited week of practice due to a hamstring injury, Hopkins is primed to eat. ... Fuller looked NFL ready and on the same page with Osweiler in August with an 8-144-2 preseason receiving line. Blessed with 4.32 speed and devastating route-running ability, Fuller will be in play as a DFS tournament option all year. This is a week to tread lightly with Fuller in season-long leagues, however. Hamstring injuries and speed-oriented wide receivers tend to not mix. ... Keep an eye on rookie slot man Braxton Miller, who dominated first-team snaps all August, caught ten passes on only 53 preseason routes, and will play a huge role in a base-three receiver offense that is short on tight ends. Miller is worth owning in Dynasty and deep PPR leagues. I think he's a sneaky bet to catch 60 balls this year.

 

The outlook is more bleak on Chicago's side with a 19-point team total on the road facing a Texans defense that's ranked Nos. 6 and 8 in DVOA in two seasons under DC Romeo Crennel. To some extent, outgoing OC Adam Gase masked Jay Cutler's flaws through a slower-paced, run-first approach last year by finishing sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts and 18th in offensive plays. This sets up as a negative-script game wherein Cutler will have to throw more than usual, increasing Houston's opportunity to jump routes, pile up sacks, and cause takeaways. The last time Cutler played in a pass-first environment -- 2014 with Marc Trestman -- he led the NFL in interceptions (18) and committed 24 turnovers across 15 starts. Additionally, Chicago's remade interior-line trio of LG Josh Sitton, rookie C Cody Whitehair, and RG Kyle Long had never practiced together until Monday. Bears OTs Charles Leno and Bobby Massie have never been particularly good. The Texans and Seahawks are the top-two fantasy defense plays in Week 1. ... Although Jeremy Langford is in a tough Opening Day spot as a road-dog back facing an elite defense, Langford's projected workload should keep him locked into season-long fantasy lineups as an RB2. Langford dominated first-team reps all preseason, playing on all three downs and in scoring position. Presumed No. 2 back Jacquizz Rodgers was released at final cuts. In three starts substituting for Matt Forte last season, Langford emerged with weekly PPR finishes of RB4 (@ SD), RB1 (@ STL), RB19 (vs. DEN). While his per-carry efficiency remained poor (3.33 YPC), Langford averaged 21.3 touches and scored four touchdowns in those three games.

 

With so many upper-echelon receivers in pristine spots, Alshon Jeffery's massive target upside is likely to go overlooked in Week 1 DFS. There is a good chance the Bears play from behind and struggle to run the ball in Houston, which would greatly benefit Alshon. So-far disappointing 2015 first-round pick Kevin White showed nothing with the first-team offense this preseason, and TE Zach Miller didn't play at all due to a lingering concussion. Absurdly consistent in a big sample size, Jeffery has 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 32 of his last 38 games. In Week 1, Jeffery is a virtual lock for double-digit targets. White's (hamstring) late-week addition to the injury report makes Alshon all the more attractive. ... Cutler, beat writers, the coaching staff, and even Jeffery have dropped not-so-subtle hints that White is a major work in progress. He was largely limited to catching bubble screens from Cutler in August. The Texans' nickel package is one of the best in football with Johnathan Joseph and Kevin Johnson locking down the perimeter and Kareem Jackson inside. Assuming he plays, I wouldn't expect much from White in Week 1. ... Miller teased down the stretch last season with top-five fantasy tight end stats in Weeks 10-16, but Jeffery didn't play in two of those seven games, slot man Eddie Royal missed four, and White didn't play at all. Last year's Texans permitted the ninth fewest catches, 13th fewest yards, and ninth fewest touchdowns to tight ends. Miller is an uninspiring TE2 play.

 

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Bears 13

 

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Vegas Projected Score: Packers 26.75, Jaguars 21.25

 

Pack-Jags has shootout potential with Week 1's fourth highest total (48) and explosive offenses on each side. Indeed, Green Bay should resume scoring points in buckets after a down 2015 with the return of Jordy Nelson and addition of Jared Cook, who runs like a wideout (4.50) and adds a vertical element last year's Packers lacked. On their schedule, Green Bay trades facing the NFC West and AFC West for the AFC South and NFC East this year. Via injury returns and signings, the Jaguars have added at least five and as many as seven new defensive starters after finishing 31st (2015), 17th (2014), and 26th (2013) in pass-defense DVOA in Gus Bradley's first three years. The question is, how long will it take for Jacksonville's remade defense to come together? At least in Week 1, I'll take my chances betting on Aaron Rodgers until the anticipated turnaround becomes tangible. ... Another reason to like Rodgers is the tougher matchup for Green Bay's running game, which should funnel offense back into the air. Armed with an eight-deep rotation up front and plus speed at linebacker, the Jaguars allowed the fifth fewest yards per carry (3.68) in the league last season and have better personnel this year. The 2015 Jaguars did give up the sixth most rushing TDs (15), however, and that represents Eddie Lacy's best shot at paying off. In his contract year, Lacy looked quick and powerful this preseason (20-114-1) and makes for a strong play as a favorite running back with a high team total. ... Coming off career bests in total yards (993), receptions (43), yards per catch (9.1), and all-purpose touchdowns (5), James Starks should be involved as Green Bay's main receiving back on 7-11 touches.

 

A snap count is expected for Jordy Nelson, who sat out preseason after missing 2015 with a torn right ACL and the beginning of camp with left knee tendinitis. Nelson, who turned 31 in May, didn't resume practicing fully until August 29 and isn't in football shape. Early forecasts call for 90-95 degree temps with high humidity in Jacksonville. For Week 1, I'm viewing Nelson as more of a WR2/3 than WR1. He does have a plus draw against a Jaguars nickel package consisting of inconsistent LCB Davon House, ex-Giants RCB Prince Amukamara, and rookie slot corner Jalen Ramsey. ... My favorite Week 1 Packers play is Randall Cobb, who was overwhelmed by cloud coverages with Jordy on the shelf last year. Nelson's mere field presence is a plus for Cobb, whose short-area quicks should cause Ramsey fits inside the numbers. At 6-foot-1, 209, Ramsey was viewed as a better fit at safety by many NFL draft analysts. At least until Nelson finds his bearings, Cobb will be my weekly pick to lead the Packers in receiving. ... Davante Adams struggled in the preseason, but he is the favorite for Green Bay's No. 3 receiver job. I still would not be surprised if Adams lost Week 1 snaps to surer-handed Jared Abbrederis and sometimes-dynamic gadget guy Ty Montgomery. ... Jared Cook logged 19-of-26 (73%) first-team snaps in Green Bay's regular season dress rehearsal, shredding the 49ers down the seams for 4-54 on five targets in barely a half of work. At least until Jordy rounds into shape, it is very conceivable Cook plays a major early-season role. With the obvious caveat that they have better players now, it's worth noting last year's Jaguars served up the NFL's 11th most catches, sixth most yards, and sixth most touchdowns to opposing tight ends. PFF charged Jaguars WLB Telvin Smith with the most passing yards allowed in the league among 4-3 outside linebackers, while SS Johnathan Cyprien has been a consistent disaster in coverage. Despite his underachiever background, Cook is squarely in play as a season-long TE1 streamer and low-cost DFS punt.

 

The Packers' Week 1 team total is above 26 points. When opponents scored 26 or more against Jacksonville last year, Blake Bortles' weekly fantasy finishes were QB17, QB3, QB8, QB17, QB10, QB6, QB5, QB3, QB33, which gives you some idea of Bortles' ceiling in a possibly high-scoring affair while also acknowledging his unsafe floor. Working in Bortles' favor are his weapons, which include a healthy Julius Thomas after Thomas missed the first five games with a broken hand last year and never established himself as a consistent part of the offense, yet still finished as a top-11 fantasy tight end from the point he returned onward. Bortles' matchup is not quite ideal, however, against a Green Bay team which has finished the last two seasons Nos. 6 and 11 in pass-defense DVOA and should get improved edge rush with Clay Matthews returning to outside linebacker. The Packers' defense will be an overlooked fantasy play against Bortles, who has committed 41 turnovers through 29 NFL starts and averaged over 3.5 sacks taken per game. ... All signs point to a 50:50 timeshare between T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory after they rotated equally with the ones throughout August. Yeldon looks like the nominal starter and should get more action in the passing game. Preseason usage suggested Ivory is the go-to back in scoring position and will come off the field on passing downs. Mere flex options regardless of opponent strength, Yeldon is preferable in PPR while Ivory gets the nod in non-PPR scoring.

 

The Packers have played solid pass defense under DC Dom Capers, but they don't necessarily have shutdown corners. I expect RCB Sam Shields and LCB Damarious Randall to be stationary outside with Quinten Rollins in the slot. Shields is coming off a strong 2015 and should see the most of Allen Robinson, although the Jaguars will frequently move Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marqise Lee around the formation because all three can play every receiver position. None of the individual receiver-cornerback matchups stand out, although Randall looks like the best Packers corner to target. My guess is that Hurns will run the most routes at Randall. Robinson maintains the highest ceiling as the Jaguars' clear No. 1 option in a matchup that could result in catch-up game script. ... While Matthews' move back outside should be a net gain for Green Bay's defense, it does leave Dom Capers' unit softer in the middle of the field, where they will start Blake Martinez and Jake Ryan at inside linebacker. Martinez is a fourth-round rookie and Ryan was Pro Football Focus' No. 107 pass-coverage ILB among 130 qualifiers last year. The 2015 Packers allowed the NFL's 11th most receptions and 12th most touchdowns to enemy tight ends. In a potentially high-scoring game, Julius Thomas is an underrated Week 1 start.

 

Score Prediction: Packers 28, Jaguars 23

 

4:05PM ET Game

 

Miami @ Seattle

Vegas Projected Score: Seahawks 27.25, Dolphins 16.75

 

If you glanced at the Week 1 schedule and Seattle favored at home by double digits caught your eye, you are probably on to something. Missing three-time Pro Bowl C Mike Pouncey (hip), the Dolphins will trot out college tackle Laremy Tunsil at left guard, college guard Anthony Steen at center, and converted tackle Jermon Bushrod at right guard. None of those three players has ever logged a regular season snap at their current position. Michael Bennett gonna eat. ... You could conceivably ride Seattle's defense for the first five games, as they lead off with Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Ryan in Weeks 1-5. .... Tannehill has large home-away TD-to-INT ratio splits with a career 50:24 clip in Miami versus 37:30 on the road. And particularly when dealing with a first-time center, Week 1 at CenturyLink Field is no usual road game. DeVante Parker (hamstring) is not expected to play. With the exception of a Week 3 home date versus Cleveland, Tannehill is poised for a slow start with road games in Seattle, New England, and Cincinnati on the Weeks 1, 2 and 4 docket. Thereafter, I think Tannehill will begin to pick up steam in new coach Adam Gase's offense as the schedule softens and Parker gets healthy. Tannehill is unlikely to offer much fantasy usefulness early on. ... Coming off a torn Achilles' at age 30, Arian Foster outplayed Jay Ajayi all August and will open the season as Miami's lead back. Ajayi was so bad (2.72 YPC, two drops, lost fumble) in preseason that the Dolphins didn't even bring him on the team flight to Seattle. Foster will not run the ball successfully, but he is a good bet for five or more catches. Foster's strength at this stage of his career is his receiving ability. He is a respectable RB2 in PPR leagues.

 

The Dolphins' offense is likely to be rendered one dimensional this week (and most weeks) by its lack of a foundation running game. Gase and OC Clyde Christensen seem intent on playing at a faster pace. Parker is out and Jordan Cameron has proven time and again that he is nothing more than an athletic tease. All of this should add up to a high volume of pass attempts and heavy concentration of targets sent in Jarvis Landry's direction, and to a lesser extent new No. 2 wideout Kenny Stills. If Antonio Brown somehow doesn't, I like Landry to lead the NFL in targets and catches this year. After the Seahawks re-signed slot CB Jeremy Lane with starter money (four years, $23 million), my guess is Lane will primarily match up with Landry while Richard Sherman mostly stays at his customary left cornerback spot. (Sherman played only 5% of his 2015 snaps in the slot, versus 76% at LCB.) While Lane is no slouch in his own right, Landry should be able to win against him on sheer physicality. Last year's Seahawks struggled against slot receivers, most memorably allowing 9-201-1 to Markus Wheaton, 10-130 and 6-55-1 to Larry Fitzgerald, and 8-116 to Randall Cobb. Essentially the Dolphins' substitute for a running game, Landry has caught at least five passes in 20 of his last 24 games. He should easily see double-digit targets in Seattle. ... 4.38 speedster Stills had a huge preseason (8-124-2) and was beating out Parker before he went down. Stills has a chance to be a sneaky season-long WR3 and DFS play this year, but I'm not sure this is the spot to bet on him with Sherman on the other side. Stills would be more interesting if we knew for sure Sherman would shadow Landry.

 

Russell Wilson is my favorite Week 1 quarterback play against a Dolphins pass defense that last year finished 29th in DVOA and has the NFL's worst back seven on paper. Miami's starting corners are 2015 Eagles free agent flop Byron Maxwell and rookie Xavien Howard, who missed most of camp with a knee injury. They will likely be without top cover 'backer Jelani Jenkins (knee scope) and are relying on 31-year-old Mario Williams and 34-year-old Cameron Wake to generate outside pass rush. Williams quit on the Bills last year. Wake tore his Achilles' in October. The Seahawks would be smart to get Wilson rolling on moving-pocket bootlegs to keep him away from Ndamukong Suh on the interior. Either way, Wilson is a strong bet to stay white hot after his nuclear second half of 2015. ... Thomas Rawls (ankle) sat out most of camp and finished the preseason with two carries while Christine Michael hogged first-team reps alongside Wilson and piled up 26-157 (6.04 YPC) rushing in exhibition games. Rookie C.J. Prosise is the third-down back. Seattle's backfield is shaping up as a three-man committee and an ongoing competitive situation wherein OC Darrell Bevell will ride the hot hand. A plus draw versus Miami combined with the likelihood of positive script keeps probable lead back Michael as the preferred RB2 play in a game Seattle should control. In clock-killing mode, the Seahawks will likely be more willing to ride C-Mike than Rawls. Rawls is a low-floor flex option.

 

Doug Baldwin is undervalued by target-chasing projection systems because he plays on a team with a balanced offense, elite defense, and hyper-efficient quarterback whose effectiveness winds up working against the volume in his own offense. We need to not overrate target volume with Baldwin. Jimmy Graham tore his patellar tendon in Week 12 last year. Thereafter, Baldwin averaged only 8.3 targets in Seattle's final seven games but piled up 41 catches for 509 yards and nine touchdowns, good for a 94-1,163-21 pace. Baldwin drew 11 red-zone targets in Graham's five regular season games missed after seeing only four in Graham's 11 appearances. (If Graham does play Sunday, he will be very limited.) At least until this game gets out of hand, Baldwin should run circles around whomever Miami trots out at slot corner, be it ex-safety Michael Thomas or 2015 fifth-round pick Bobby McCain. ... In preseason, the Seahawks hinted that they will use a rotation incorporating Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson in sub-packages behind Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. After Graham's injury last year, Kearse averaged 4.9 catches for 54.9 yards with four touchdowns in seven games. Kearse is worth a bench stash in deeper fantasy leagues to see if his role is bigger than expected. In a cupcake Week 1 matchup, he will have almost no DFS ownership. ... Rather than Kearse, most DFSers will flock to Lockett, whose early-season offensive role appears likely to be limited as Seattle scales back his playing time in order to keep Lockett fresh for special teams. Lockett is a boom-bust fantasy play.

 

Score Prediction: Seahawks 30, Dolphins 17

 

4:25PM ET Games

 

NY Giants @ Dallas

Vegas Projected Score: Cowboys 23, Giants 23 (PK)

 

Previously listed at 47.5, I noticed that the total on this game dropped by 1.5 points in the last week, a dip big enough that it was likely caused by sharp money. I agree the total should have been lower and here's why: Run first and clock milking, the Cowboys play a keepaway brand of offense designed to cover up their defense by keeping it off the field. Dallas ranked first in the NFL in time of possession when their offense was humming in 2014, and they were 13th last year despite finishing 4-12. When the Cowboys execute, they lower scoring and sap opponents' opportunity. In last year's two meetings with the Giants, Dallas dominated the combined time-of-possession battle 75:14 to 44:46 while limiting Eli Manning to weekly finishes of QB30 and QB23. While this is an obvious concern, all is not quite lost for Eli, who did deliver QB5 and QB5 finishes against a better Cowboys team the year before. Manning is a serviceable Week 1 fantasy option, albeit with a lowered floor. ... Rashad Jennings will open the season as the Giants' feature back, a role he parlayed into 21.5 touches per game over the final four weeks of last season. The release of Andre Williams secures goal-line work for Jennings. A potential play-volume shortage remains concerning, though it should be noted Cowboys DC Rod Marinelli's last two defenses finished 29th (2015) and 22nd (2014) in run-defense DVOA. Matchup and usage look to be working in Jennings' Week 1 favor. While his target ceiling is limited by passing-down back Shane Vereen's presence, Jennings is a viable RB2 play in Dallas.

 

Similar to Eli, the Cowboys held Odell Beckham in check (WR45, WR50) last season after OBJ got loose (WR10, WR2) against them the year before. Against Dallas' sub-par secondary, I'm going to keep betting on Beckham even if I'm banging my head against the wall. The matchup is about as good as it gets against RCB Brandon Carr and LCB Morris Claiborne, who last year ranked 80th and 104th, respectively, among 118 qualified cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus' coverage grades. Beckham is riskier than usual, perhaps, but ultimately I like his odds of delivering payback to the Cowboys. ... As the G-Men appear to be resorting to a Will Tye-Larry Donnell tight end committee and Victor Cruz can't be trusted, the only other Giant worth fantasy discussion is second-round rookie Sterling Shepard, a pro-ready route runner who caught 233 passes at Oklahoma and can shock defenders in contested situations with a springy 41-inch vertical. As opposed to big-play machine Beckham, however, Shepard projects as a volume-reliant possession receiver whose volume may be curbed by the Keepaway Cowboys. Shepard is also likely to run more routes in the slot, where Dallas top CB Orlando Scandrick roams. I'm viewing Shepard as a WR4 until we see proof his fantasy expectations deserve a promotion.

 

Armed with the NFL's most dominant line, quarterback elevator Dez Bryant, high-percentage safety valve Jason Witten -- who dropped zero-of-104 targets last season -- and versatile playmaking tailback Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott is set up for Week 1 success against a Giants defense that has one of the league's slowest and weakest linebacker corps and question marks at both safety positions in addition to nickel corner. While Dallas would likely limit Prescott to 25 pass attempts or fewer in an ideal world, he can atone with passing efficiency and running ability after amassing 41 career rushing TDs in the SEC. Although some eventually regress, dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL have consistently succeeded early in their playing careers from Colin Kaepernick to Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, and Tyrod Taylor. Even Jake Locker had a briefly-promising run in limited action as a rookie. With so many talented pieces around him and a cupcake Weeks 1-4 schedule (vs. NYG, @ WAS, vs. CHI, @ SF), I'm viewing Prescott as an every-week DFS option and legitimate QB1 in the first month of the season. ... One Cowboys beat writer told me Dallas will make aggressive use of read-option plays with Prescott under center, which bodes well for Ezekiel Elliott's outlook in addition to his likely workhorse usage. While the Giants' additions of NT Damon Harrison and RE Olivier Vernon improved their on-paper personnel up front, speed-deficient MLB Kelvin Sheppard (4.70) and SLB Devon Kennard (4.70) remain likely to have a hard time winning battles to the edge against Elliott (4.47) and mobile Prescott. Sheppard has been an NFL starter twice in his career (2015 Dolphins, 2012 Bills) and finished both of those seasons with decidedly negative PFF run-defense grades. Each week, Zeke will be one of the most exciting RB1s in fantasy football.

 

Dez Bryant has faced new Giants No. 1 CB Janoris Jenkins twice in his career and scored a TD in both games. Jenkins typically plays off coverage as opposed to press and is more of a route-jumping gambler than sticktuitive cover guy. Sheer pass volume is a concern for all Dallas pass catchers with a rookie at quarterback, but Prescott promisingly showed no fear targeting Dez in contested situations this preseason, and Bryant is simply better than what the Giants will trot out on the perimeter. ... No. 2 receiver Terrance Williams is likeliest to get lost in the shuffle as a purely complementary piece who will regularly be Prescott's third or fourth read. Williams has underwhelmed in six career Giants meetings, managing receiving lines of 5-60-0, 4-70-0, 1-18-0, 1-18-1, 1-10-0, 2-32-0. ... The opposite is true for Jason Witten, whose last seven stat lines against the G-Men are 6-73-0, 8-60-2, 4-30-1, 2-27-0, 4-37-2, 8-70-2, 18-167. Over the past four years, Witten has scored 12 of his 19 touchdowns (63.1%) in home games, and Prescott hit Witten for a 17-yard TD in Dallas' third preseason game. Last year's Giants allowed the NFL's second most fantasy points to tight ends. They are also dealing with a shoulder injury to FS Darian Thompson. Tyler Eifert owners could do far worse than Witten as a Week 1 streamer.

 

Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Giants 20

[Mofome]

 

Detroit @ Indianapolis

Vegas Projected Score: Colts 27, Lions 23.5

 

Sporting Week 1's second highest Vegas total (50.5), Lions-Colts will be one of the hottest games to attack in opening-week DFS. Matthew Stafford draws an Indy defense that is simply not equipped to stop passing games after losing shutdown CB Vontae Davis (ankle) for "at least" a month. The Colts lean heavily on Davis' man-coverage ability because they can't rush the quarterback. 23rd in sacks last season, Indianapolis' top outside rushers are 34-year-old Trent Cole and 35-year-old Robert Mathis, who combined for ten sacks in 29 games. The Colts are weak in the middle of the field, where ILB Jerrell Freeman left in free agency and 33-year-old D'Qwell Jackson returns as the starter next to fourth-round rookie ILB Antonio Morrison. Indy is also in danger of being without DE Henry Anderson (knee) and slot CB Darius Butler (ankle). Stafford is set up to start hot in his first five games (@ IND, vs. TEN, @ GB, @ CHI, vs. PHI). ... The backfield is trickier to navigate because the Lions employ multiple backs and use them in specialized roles. Coming off an 80-catch season, Theo Riddick will cause matchup problems for speed-deficient Colts ILBs Jackson (4.78) and Morrison (5.10), but he is a PPR-specific player with low touchdown probability. After a rookie season where he averaged only 10.5 touches per game, Ameer Abdullah has begged the coaches for more red-zone work. His passing-game usage is curbed by Riddick's presence, and Abdullah touched the ball only four times inside the opposing ten-yard lines last year. The Lions kept big backs Zach Zenner (6'0/223) and Dwayne Washington (6'1/223) on their 53. Both threaten Abdullah's (5'9/205) scoring chances.

 

The chalkiest stack pairing with Stafford will be Marvin Jones, who is underpriced on DFS sites and looked like the Lions' new No. 1 receiver in August, lining up at X-Iso and making repeated highlight-reel grabs on Stafford's rocket throws along the sideline. A No. 2 receiver since high school, I think it's fair to wonder how Jones will respond once he begins drawing No. 1 corners on a regular basis. In Week 1, however, Jones will face a team missing its No. 1 corner and forced to turn to a boundary duo of Patrick Robinson and Antonio Cromartie. Robinson is on his third team in three years. The same goes for 32-year-old Cromartie, who was signed off the street on August 22 after the Colts learned of Davis' injury. ... Less popular based on his higher price and lesser buzz will be Golden Tate, the Lions' receptions leader (90, 99) in each of his two years in Detroit. Tate has produced at elite levels with Calvin Johnson sitting or not an on-field factor before, posting lines of 9-60-2, 6-45-2, 8-116-0, 7-134-1, 7-44-0, 10-154-1, and 7-151-1 in seven games over the past two seasons where Megatron was inactive, used as a decoy, or held to one catch or fewer. Jones and Tate are obvious must-starts in season-long leagues. In DFS, a three-pronged Stafford-Jones-Tate stack is worth contemplation. ... One potential flaw in that approach is the possibility 36-year-old slot receiver Anquan Boldin takes on a larger role than expected. In particular, Boldin poses a big threat to banged-up Eric Ebron's (ankle) usage.

 

Favored at home with one of Week 1's highest team totals, Andrew Luck is in a plus spot against a Detroit club that last year finished 16th in defensive DVOA and 19th against the pass. The Lions have question marks at best and gaping holes at worst at No. 2 corner and strong safety. The biggest obstacle Colts players face is up front, where LT Anthony Castonzo was pulverized in the preseason and new starters are breaking in at center (Ryan Kelly) and right guard (Denzelle Good). Luck should come close to his 2014 form if the line holds up. If not, owners may have to deal with weekly ups and downs. ... The Colts never found a sufficient complement to 33-year-old Frank Gore, ultimately keeping well-traveled Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman as Nos. 2 and 3 backs on the final roster with disappointing UDFA Josh Ferguson as a likely Week 1 scratch. It adds up to an enticing workload projection for Gore, who averaged 18.4 touches per game last year and looks set up for similar usage. Even in an average matchup, Gore is a serviceable RB2 option in season-long leagues.

 

Whether lockdown Lions CB Darius Slay will shadow one of the Colts' wideouts is a question that won't be answered until Sunday. Last year, PFF charted Slay with 65% of his snaps at left corner, where he would see the most of T.Y. Hilton if their typical alignments hold. Hilton, of course, moves around the formation frequently. I am absolutely not shying away from T.Y., who has a combined 82-1,504-10 stat line across Luck's last 16 full games with career averages of 4.9/79.1/0.5 indoors versus 4.0/57.8/0.3 outdoors. This game will be played beneath Lucas Oil's retractable roof. ... From a size standpoint, it would make more sense for the Lions to assign Slay (6'0/192) to Donte Moncrief (6'2/223) while letting No. 2 corner Nevin Lawson (5'10/190) chase Hilton (5'10/183). Like Hilton, however, Moncrief also works into the slot situationally, and it's still entirely possible the Lions end up playing "sides," leaving Slay at LCB with Lawson at RCB or vice versa. Moncrief caught five touchdowns in Luck's seven starts last season, and 222 targets are gone from the Colts' 2015 roster. As Moncrief runs more possession-style routes, I like his chances of leading Indianapolis in Week 1 catches. Hilton is the slightly better bet for big plays. ... 2015 first-round pick Phillip Dorsett's first NFL season was ruined by injuries, while his 2016 preseason performance was largely nondescript. I think Dorsett is worth stashing in most season-long leagues, but he may need a Hilton or Moncrief injury to become startable. ... In order to help struggling LT Castonzo and RT Joe Reitz block Ziggy Ansah, Dwayne Allen figures to spend much of this game on the line of scrimmage. Over the last two seasons, Allen ran routes on just 38.9% (2015) and 48.5% (2014) of his snaps, paled in comparison by someone like Jordan Reed (69.5%, 60.0%). While I'm not expecting a high target and catch total from Allen, this game's high-scoring projection keeps him in play as a touchdown-or-bust TE1 streamer.

 

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Colts 24

 

Sunday Night Football

 

New England @ Arizona

Vegas Projected Score: Cardinals 26.5, Patriots 20.5

 

Pats-Cards has a surprisingly high Vegas total for a game Bill Belichick figures to approach much differently than normal due to an utterly decimated offense. Although his final preseason stats were buoyed to respectability by a couple of long screen passes, Jimmy Garoppolo did not look like an NFL starter in August, struggling to process reads, overreacting to pressure, and narrowly escaping several would-be turnovers. His accuracy also disappointed. On the road to face an Arizona defense that last year led the NFL in blitz frequency (50.2%) and ranked No. 4 in pass-defense DVOA, Garoppolo is a better target for owners of the Cardinals' D/ST than streamers and two-quarterback leaguers. I expect Belichick to employ Garoppolo as a strict game manager whose completions largely consist of high-percentage checkdowns. The goal should be to "hide" Garoppolo rather than let him rip. ... Garoppolo is still most comfortable in shotgun-spread formations -- where James White plays over LeGarrette Blount -- and Arizona's stout defensive front suggests the Patriots' game plan will call for White to log significantly more playing time than New England's two-down grinder and late-game clock-killer back. This matchup sets up so well for White that it wouldn't be surprising if he led the Patriots in Week 1 targets. Albeit specific to PPR leagues, White is a strong flex whom I could see arguing for as a legit RB2.

 

Garoppolo's shortcomings are a concern for both the floor and ceiling of each member of New England's pass-catcher corps. They are especially worrisome for Julian Edelman, who owns an on-field mind meld with Tom Brady to the extent that Edelman's option routes are virtually indefensible with Brady in the game. Edelman loses that with Garoppolo, and his matchup is brutal against Patrick Peterson and slot CB Tyrann Mathieu. Start Edelman at your own risk. ... Chris Hogan became a trendy name as soon as the Patriots signed him, but he is likely fourth at best in line for targets behind Edelman, White, and Rob Gronkowski. I wouldn't rule out Hogan or Martellus Bennett making a big play if they get some space, but I'd also be very hard pressed to trust either as a Week 1 fantasy start. There is also a possibility Danny Amendola (ankle, knee) is active, which would further cut into his teammates' passing-game opportunities. ... Beyond White, Gronkowski is the lone Patriot I would feel confident starting in this game. Gronk is likely to be the first or second read on most of Garoppolo's dropbacks, and Bennett's blocking prowess should allow Gronk to align frequently at X-Iso receiver, where he creates colossal matchup issues. Last year's Cardinals defense coughed up the NFL's sixth most receptions and 14th most yards to enemy tight ends. They also lost FS Rashad Johnson (Titans) in free agency.

 

Thursday Update: I wrote this piece before Gronkowski's (hamstring) status came into question on Thursday, and he was ruled out Friday. Not only will New England be without its Hall of Fame quarterback and most dominant player, the Pats lost RT Sebastian Vollmer (hip/shoulder) to PUP and ruled out LT Nate Solder (hamstring) and RG Jonathan Cooper (foot) for Week 1. This offense seems very likely to struggle in an already difficult matchup. Gronk's absence means Martellus Bennett will dominate tight end duties in Arizona, and Chris Hogan should see an uptick in involvement. I like James White to pace the Patriots in Week 1 targets.

 

Turning 37 later this year, Carson Palmer enters his 14th NFL season as a bigger question mark than the memory of his 2015 season might suggest. Although it was attributed to a finger injury at the time, Palmer committed a whopping ten turnovers in Arizona's final four games last year before throwing three interceptions among 22 pass attempts this preseason. Palmer's throws have seemed to float and last longer in the air than usual in his most recent appearances. Perhaps everything will be fine when the real games start, but I'm approaching Palmer with caution early in the year. Palmer's Week 1 matchup is average to below average against a New England pass defense that ranked No. 15 in DVOA and No. 2 in sacks last year and returns every critical member of the defensive back seven. Palmer is a fine season-long start, but there are several quarterbacks who were typically drafted far later than Palmer I would be willing to play over him against the Patriots. ... How Bill Belichick approaches defending David Johnson will be one of the biggest storylines of Sunday Night Football. My guess is he'll do so at least partially with WLB Jamie Collins, one of the NFL's few linebackers who can match Johnson's athleticism one for one. Concerns with containing Arizona's vertical passing attack should still consistently create advantageous scenarios for Johnson, keeping extra defenders out of the box and clearing room underneath for Johnson to eat in the passing game. Johnson's matchup is bettered by the suspension of LE Rob Ninkovich, a critical edge setter in the running game. Game script proof due to his versatility, Johnson will be top-three running back play every week this year.

 

Larry Fitzgerald has the top matchup in Arizona's wide receiver corps, taking on Patriots second-round rookie Cyrus Jones in the slot. While he has a chance to become a terrific slot defender in time, Jones (5'10/197) is at a significant size disadvantage against Fitzgerald (6'3/225) and is facing a future Hall-of-Fame receiver in his first NFL game. Fitzgerald is a WR2 play in Week 1. ... As David Johnson's passing-game use cut into Fitzgerald's opportunities down the stretch last season, Michael Floyd's average of 8.0 targets per game in Johnson's seven starts led the team. Floyd runs a near-equal number of routes at each perimeter position and in the slot, so he will draw a near-equal smattering of Jones, LCB Malcolm Butler, and RCB Logan Ryan. The matchup isn't quite ideal, but Floyd looks like Arizona's best bet for deep passing plays on Sunday night. ... John Brown battled headaches stemming from a concussion all August and logged only six preseason snaps, none with Palmer. Asked Tuesday about his Week 1 role, Brown replied that he'll "do whatever is needed." It's unclear whether Brown is in football shape and ready for a full complement of snaps. I'm viewing him as a low-floor WR3 option versus New England.

 

Score Prediction: Cardinals 23, Patriots 17

 

Monday Night Football

 

Pittsburgh @ Washington

Vegas Projected Score: Steelers 26.5, Redskins 23.5

 

Steelers-Skins is a high-value DFS target game with the third highest Vegas total (50) of Week 1. Most attractive in Washington's offense is the passing game, where Kirk Cousins was lethal at home last year with a 16:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 271-yard average compared to a 13:9 TD-to-INT ratio and 249.5-yard average on the road. Cousins caught fire when DeSean Jackson got healthy, finishing as the overall fantasy QB3 behind Cam Newton and Russell Wilson from Week 9 on after Jackson missed most of the first eight weeks with a hamstring injury. D-Jax was healthy all camp and is in his contract year. Pittsburgh's personnel is subpar in the secondary and OLB Bud Dupree (groin) was recently sent to I.R., dealing a blow to their pass-rush rotation. The Steelers traded for ex-Browns bust CB Justin Gilbert at final cuts, showing their desperation. With a soft early slate (vs. PIT, vs. DAL, @ NYG, vs. CLE, @ BAL, vs. PHI, @ DET), I like Cousins to start his franchise-tag season hot. ... The Redskins' backfield looks like a situation to avoid with Matt Jones coming off an AC sprain of his left shoulder that cost him the final two preseason games, while UDFA Rob Kelley shined and Chris Thompson solidified himself as the Redskins' passing-game specialist. A PPR sleeper, Thompson could end up with a bigger role than most expect in a pass-first offense. Kelley had a big enough preseason (38-198-1, 5.2 YPC) that some beat writers believe he earned an early-down tag-team role with Jones. I'm fading Washington's running game against a Pittsburgh run defense that finished top five in DVOA last season.

 

So, in all likelihood, the Redskins are going to need to lean on Cousins to move the ball on offense. Yet another reason to like Cousins are Washington's matchup advantages in the passing game, where Jordan Reed draws a Steelers defense that allowed the sixth most catches, 12th most yards, and ninth most touchdowns to enemy tight ends last year. The true focus of the Redskins' offense, Reed boasts an absurd 109-1,218-12 receiving line in 17 career games played with Cousins. Reed is my favorite Week 1 cash-game tight end in DFS. ... My favorite DFS tournament start is of course DeSean Jackson, who always goes underowned despite his weekly blowup potential. Last year's Steelers allowed the seventh-most completions of 40-plus yards (12), and this year they are promoting SS Robert Golden into the starting lineup despite major struggles early last season while planning to use rookies CB/S Sean Davis and CB Artie Burns extensively in sub-packages. Beneath the bright lights on Monday night, this is a green-light game to tee up Jackson. ... Pierre Garcon and slot man Jamison Crowder will vie for leftover scraps as chain-moving possession receivers. Even as Jackson and Reed combined to miss nine games last year, Garcon cleared 60 yards in just 4-of-16 games and topped 70 yards twice.

 

Whereas Cousins may go underowned as a Week 1 DFS play, Ben Roethlisberger is likely to go overowned based on his big-name appeal, fantasy-star perception, and people seeing "against the Redskins" on the schedule. Roethlisberger, though, has massive home-away splits over the past two years, where his passing-yard average dips from an incredible 347.6 yards with a 39:11 TD-to-INT ratio at Heinz Field to 287.4 yards with a horrific 14:14 TD-to-INT clip on the road. Losing Martavis Bryant is also a concern for Roethlisberger, who has averaged 331.2 yards with 43 touchdowns over his last 22 games with Bryant versus 269 yards with 35 TDs in Ben's last 22 games sans Martavis. And the matchup isn't quite as good as some may believe against a Washington defense that boasts an underrated pass-rush duo in Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith and might compete for the NFL's stingiest cornerback tandem in RCB Bashaud Breeland and LCB Josh Norman. ... The higher-floor and stronger bet on Pittsburgh's side is DeAngelo Williams, who will make starts at Washington, versus Cincinnati, and at Philadelphia before Le'Veon Bell (suspension) returns in Week 4. Williams will be a top-ten RB1 play in all three weeks after averaging 22.9 touches for 122.2 total yards with 11 TDs in nine full games last year, and leading all NFL running backs in snaps played by more than 100 during that period. The Redskins' biggest defensive vulnerability is on the ground, where they ranked 22nd in run-defense DVOA last year and did little to upgrade their front-seven personnel this offseason.

 

It will be a disappointment if Antonio Brown doesn't set records this season. He has finished as the No. 1 fantasy receiver in back-to-back years, and the Steelers are missing 178 targets from their 2015 roster, freeing up even more opportunity for the game's least-coverable wideout. While Ben's past road struggles are a concern, Brown's overwhelming volume should cover up any drops in overall passing-game efficiency. Including the playoffs, Brown has a 138-2,004-11 receiving line on 193 targets in 15 games where Le'Veon Bell has been inactive. Brown's stat line is 152-2,039-12 over the last 16 games in which Roethlisberger has played at least 70% of the Steelers' offensive snaps. While matching up with Norman and Breeland isn't ideal, Brown remains Pittsburgh's best means of creating big plays and will be heavily targeted. ... The Steelers have moved Markus Wheaton back outside and inserted second-year UDFA Eli Rogers at slot receiver, where he arguably has the best pure matchup of any Steelers skill-position player. Rogers will square off inside with either third-round rookie Kendall Fuller -- who is coming back from microfracture surgery -- or third-year UDFA Dashaun Phillips, who was said to be beating out Fuller at one point. Washington's strong boundary corners could funnel targets into the middle of the field, where Rogers and Jesse James run routes. I'm betting Wheaton struggles and think Rogers and James are interesting low-cost DFS and deep-league plays.

 

Saturday Update: Wheaton (shoulder) missed practice all week and has been ruled out for Week 1. Wheaton's absence should translate to a few more targets thrown at Brown, Rogers, and James. The Steelers' other starter at outside receiver will be either preseason disappointment Sammie Coates or speedy special teamer Darrius Heyward-Bey, neither of whom is a viable fantasy option against Norman and Breeland. Priced at or near the minimum on DFS sites, James has become a very attractive Week 1 sleeper. He is available on most season-long waiver wires and is an excellent fallback option for Rob Gronkowski owners.

 

Score Prediction: Redskins 27, Steelers 24

 

Los Angeles @ San Francisco

Vegas Projected Score: Rams 23, 49ers 20.5

 

The Rams and 49ers meet in a clash between Los Angeles' grinding, run-centric offense and San Francisco's talent-barren roster. The Niners did show they were capable of executing a Week 1 Monday night fluke last year, stunning the playoff-bound Vikings 20-3 before losing 11 of their final 15 games. The 49ers pulled that upset on the back of Carlos Hyde, who will again be the offensive centerpiece under Chip Kelly. Concerns for Hyde include matchup and game flow, which could become problematic if/when Todd Gurley gets going. Kelly's Eagles ranked dead last in the NFL in time of possession in each of his three years in Philadelphia, and the talent cupboard is much emptier in the Bay Area. Kelly's up-tempo offense can impose its will when it's getting first downs and scoring quickly, but this Blaine Gabbert-quarterbacked unit may struggle to move the sticks against a Rams team that last year finished seventh in run-defense DVOA and eighth against the pass. I'm viewing Hyde as a boom-bust RB2 and Gabbert as a non-option. ... I'll be paying attention to No. 2 back Shaun Draughn's Week 1 usage. A favorite of 49ers RBs coach Tom Rathman, Draughn averaged 4.2 catches per game in six starts alongside Gabbert last season. Even though Hyde stayed on the field on third downs in preseason games, one beat writer told me he expects Draughn to play in most passing situations. Hyde has also battled persistent injuries in the pros, making Draughn stash worthy in season-long leagues.

 

After slot man Bruce Ellington tore his hamstring, Gabbert's three-receiver set will be made up of Torrey Smith, Quinton Patton, and perhaps Jeremy Kerley. Smith played 50 preseason snaps and was targeted once. In eight starts with Gabbert last year, Smith averaged 3.9 targets and 40.1 yards per game. ... Patton looks more involved in the offense and is less likely to draw Trumaine Johnson, the Rams' franchise player who could end up shadowing Smith. Patton is a sneaky bet to lead the 49ers in targets. ... Sub-package receiver snaps are up for grabs between journeyman Kerley, sixth-round pick Aaron Burbridge, and 28-year-old Rod Streater, who wasn't going to make the Chiefs before the 49ers traded for him on September 3. ... Beyond Hyde, the 49ers' best fantasy play is Vance McDonald, whose weekly PPR finishes were TE4, TE4, TE31, TE40, TE3, TE26 in his final six games with Gabbert at quarterback last year. The 49ers' talent shortage at receiver should force Gabbert to lean on McDonald between the numbers. Although the Rams are historically tough on tight ends, coverage-maven WLB Alec Ogletree has been kicked inside to replace James Laurinaitis, and FS Rodney McLeod (Eagles) moved on. After the Rams cut Akeem Ayers, I have no idea who their starting SAM linebacker is going to be.

 

In DFS, at least, Week 1 is the time to roster Todd Gurley before he faces the Seahawks, Bucs, and Cardinals in his next three games. All three of those teams finished top nine in run-defense DVOA last season. San Francisco ranked 23rd. The 49ers are counting on rookie DE DeForest Buckner and sophomore DE Arik Armstead to turn things around up front. They lost run-plugging NT Ian Williams (ankle surgeries) for the season. Particularly if the 49ers' offense struggles to stay on the field as Kelly's teams often do, Gurley would be set up for an enormous workload. I realize these are potentially meaningless stats, but the 49ers were out-snapped 178 to 112 in the second and third preseason games, which is when teams play their starters the most. Even though his Eagles didn't bottom out until year three, Kelly's teams finished 12th (2013), fifth (2014), and third (2015) in rushing attempts against. After torching San Francisco (20-133-1) last Week 8, Gurley should have every opportunity to repeat in this rematch.

 

On a team that would love to emerge from every game with Case Keenum having attempted in the range of 16-21 passes, the lone Rams pass catcher worth taking seriously is Tavon Austin until further notice. A gadget guy with scintillating YouTube highlights, it is perhaps notable that Austin averaged 7.4 touches per game on the road last year versus 5.6 touches at home. As Austin is utilized in concert with Gurley, it should come as no surprise that Austin was more productive with Gurley on the field in 2015, averaging 62.2 total yards per game with eight touchdowns in Gurley's 12 weeks as the Rams' lead back compared to 40.3 yards with one score in the first month. As will usually be the case this year, Austin is a boom-bust fantasy option.

 

Score Prediction: Rams 23, 49ers 17

[Mofome]

They go over each relevant player, usually a good read, link to that article here

 

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/64814/179/silvas-week-1-matchups?pg=4

[Brick]

Need some draft kings lineups.

 

Will enter 5 $20 tournaments. (2.5 million 250k to first)  any cash i will give 25% to the lineup creator.

[Deemer]

QBs: Stafford or Derek Carr

RBs: Ware (everyone will own him), Washington for Oak (sneaky play), Ingram, Crowell

WRs: Snead, Decker, Sterling Shepherd, Randall Cobb

TEs: Delanie Walker, Clive Walford (sneaky)

D/St: KC, Browns (sneaky)

[Deemer]

Brick, use Yeldon.

 

Ivory inactive.

[Brick]

creating your lineup now deemer, will post

[Brick]

Pos

  Player FPPG  

QB Matthew Stafford 19.7swap out

RB Spencer Ware 7.6 swap out

RB T.J. Yeldon 13.5 swap out

WR Randall Cobb 12.6 swap out

WR Eric Decker 17.1 swap out

WR Willie Snead 12.7 swap out

TE Clive Walford 4.9 swap out

FLEX Julio Jones 25.2 swap out

DST Browns 5.4 swap out

[Mofome]

How much is Albert Wilson compared to maclin?

[Brick]

wilson 3600

 

maclin 6500

 

on draft kings

[Mofome]

Hunter Henry should take the L Green role next to a, theoretically, again Gates. Interesting week 1 guy with Keenan

[Mofome]

wilson 3600

 

maclin 6500

Holy shite, thanks Brick. I like Wilson a lot if he helps you get someone you love, I think the difference is negligible bw Wilson and Maclin considering the matchups.

[Brick]

thanks mo, i swapped him into one of my lineups and was able to get devonta freeman instead of ware.  see how it works out.

[Brick]

so they dont even let you look at their software when dfs is banned in your state?  thats messed up

[Guest pocketrockets]

Mo where do you get this write ups from? I like em

[TobyTyler]

Tjyeldon or Ware in league with only 12 guys? I have money for either

[Mofome]

V Jackson

Wilson

White

Landry

Baldwin

Fitz

Shep

Alshon

Crab

RB Mathews

 

 

Sleepers and others I like a lot

 

Gl guys

[Mofome]

Tjyeldon or Ware in league with only 12 guys? I have money for either

Ware

[Mofome]

thanks mo, i swapped him into one of my lineups and was able to get devonta freeman instead of ware. see how it works out.

Certainly more to gain in a tournament

 

West will get more fun hopefully

[Mofome]

so they dont even let you look at their software when dfs is banned in your state? thats messed up

I can't see prices so it's hard as fuck to give more precise thoughts on what I'd like to discuss. I think you always trust your big guys and then really talk out the mid level and deeper sleepers. Everyone is a source, the more voices the better.

 

Maybe we can find a site that has the prices listed - I'm locked out completely I can't even click on a tournament

[Mofome]

Mo where do you get this write ups from? I like em

Those were from a rotoworld article, great site. I think I posted the link, I will check and post it if not.

[Mofome]

They go over each relevant player, usually a good read, link to that article here

 

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/64814/179/silvas-week-1-matchups?pg=4

 

That's the link to the game by game breakdowns pr

[Mofome]

[Mofome]