Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 First time I partake in this (thank you TTP & Mofome). What I did is pretty much layout the schedule for all 17 weeks, and rank my picks from all matches, 1 star (tight game) 2 stars (good chances), 3 stars (great chances) and 4 stars ("lock"). After that I just selected the 4 stars as a main pick for said week (especially if its a "weak" squad)... example, on week 1 I gave Seattle and Baltimore 4 stars... but picked Seattle cause its safer for week 1, -10 home fave and should win outright fairly easily... left Baltimore as an option for later. And If I have Jets vs Bills as a 4 star pick against lets say Pats vs Chiefs... Id take Jets cause Pats will be useful later against a stronger opponent while the Jets will have a hard time with another team. Basically I have 2-3 picks per week already decided, and if injuries/bad streaks arise I shouldn't have a problem switching the main pick for a second or third tier. Whats your take? I'm I off here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Geezus this guy is a DULLARD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Whats your strategy BD? You seem to always have space for bs and criticism, Im not taking the bait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mofome Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 People who get cute week 1 tend to get blasted. Week one has the least amount of reliable information so go with your top game imo. The point isn't to look savvy its to advance. Ego leads to picking games like Philly/Clev. That game couldn't have more unknowns in it, awful week 1 survivor game though some will want to pick a bottom 10 team even though you never actually have to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 People who get cute week 1 tend to get blasted. Week one has the least amount of reliable information so go with your top game imo. The point isn't to look savvy its to advance. Ego leads to picking games like Philly/Clev. That game couldn't have more unknowns in it, awful week 1 survivor game though some will want to pick a bottom 10 team even though you never actually have to. Exactly why I'm going with Seattle at home against the Fins... I think this is going to be the best Dolphins season in years, but won't start 1-0. First 3 weeks is to play it safe... thats why my only play yesterday was a 6pt teaser CAR and Under... would have covered DEN and Over as well, week 1 has so many weird spots, nailed it on the eagles game...Bengals Jets, Raiders Saints, Giants Cowgirls, Lions Colts, even Pats Cards... all very fishy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 And if I'm not mistaken, first 3 weeks are heavy dog weeks, but I don't like most dogs here... Im most likely gonna get crushed in the office pool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mofome Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Too many variable, the point of week one is to get to week 2 so you can actually use what you learned in week 1. Save the brave picks for when you've got more information. Two new coaching staffs in philly/clev, new QBs, too much chaos. I think Miami will be ok too and seattles Oline is grotesque but Wilson played behind the worst Oline last year, good place to put your trust considering he played like an MVP and Miami is starting a secondary that's worse than Florida states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Thanks Mo... feel better about my pick... heavy fave on all pools by a wide margin, but this is no time to get creative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Whats your strategy BD? You seem to always have space for bs and criticism, Im not taking the bait.I've won ALOT of survivor pools over the years and my only piece of advice is DO NOT look ahead . Take it one week at a time, there are exceptions but they are obvious ones. No need to analyze what might happen next week or next month just pick a fucking winner for the current week. Period. The end . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mofome Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 I've won ALOT of survivor pools over the years and my only piece of advice is DO NOT look ahead . Take it one week at a time, there are exceptions but they are obvious ones. No need to analyze what might happen next week or next month just pick a fucking winner for the current week. Period. The end .Get to week 2! Yes indeed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 I've won ALOT of survivor pools over the years and my only piece of advice is DO NOT look ahead . Take it one week at a time, there are exceptions but they are obvious ones. No need to analyze what might happen next week or next month just pick a fucking winner for the current week. Period. The end . Ok, but I thinks its useful to wisely use the weaker teams on the easiest spots... like i said... what if you have on week 6 cowgirls at packers, and you already used GB on week 3 at home ag Lions... better spot week 6, at least now. But yeah, maybe just overthinking, spent like 2-3 hours doing that shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 If you make it late in the season try and trick your opponent(s) into chopping asap if they have better teams to pick from than yourself lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 lol lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mofome Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Ok, but I thinks its useful to wisely use the weaker teams on the easiest spots... like i said... what if you have on week 6 cowgirls at packers, and you already used GB on week 3 at home ag Lions... better spot week 6, at least now. But yeah, maybe just overthinking, spent like 2-3 hours doing that shit.QBs get hurt, stars go down, take the wins early imo, first 3-4 weeks you'll have great teams left. Save gb, Pitt, or Seattle they lose their QB and you're fucked with one of the elite teams. You have to get cute at some point, better to do it late than early, survive and advance. The longer you're in the more information you can acquire and the sharper the lines are allowing you to invest more in what Vegas is telling you. Jmo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 thanks Mo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mofome Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 You've got good access to lines/money and such at your job - that gets more useful by the week. No problem hope it's a great contest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Wouldn't Houston over Chicago be considered an easy win week 1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Wouldn't Houston over Chicago be considered an easy win week 1? Houston was one of my options, 3rd-4th tier but Seattle much more safer IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TobyTyler Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Wouldn't Houston over Chicago be considered an easy win week 1?No, it's the nfl. Those 6-7pt spreads look like easy wins during the week until the game starts then you remember why nobody beats the nfl.Seattle is literally the only gimme , even in my other hundred person pool I took them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nothing but winners Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Lets not forget Seattle started slowly last year, and if anything lost a bit of talent with Lynch and a couple offensive lineman no longer on team....I think Miami has a shot to beat Seattle week 1, as i stated Seattle has been known to start slow out of the gate.... Shit the rams swept them last year, Yes the rams! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Lets not forget Seattle started slowly last year, and if anything lost a bit of talent with Lynch and a couple offensive lineman no longer on team....I think Miami has a shot to beat Seattle week 1, as i stated Seattle has been known to start slow out of the gate.... Shit the rams swept them last year, Yes the rams!Correct. There are no guarantees in the NFL but as far as this week goes I believe Seattle @ home vs Miami is the strongest play on the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 And to your point NBW I'm not a believer in Seattle overall this season either. Took under 10.5 wins for the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Rocket I think looking ahead strategy is better for the huge survivor pools since you get 1000 squares making the same move through the first half of the season taking the biggest fav. In smaller ones like here would just say week to week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyL Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 Rocket I think looking ahead strategy is better for the huge survivor pools since you get 1000 squares making the same move through the first half of the season taking the biggest fav. In smaller ones like here would just say week to week. Exactly. It all comes down to the parameters of the contest. In a 15 person contest, just try and survive each week. In a 4k person one, you're going to need to look ahead a lot more. Then, there are variables like pools that keep going into the playoffs if people are still alive, pools where you have to start pick 2 teams each week at some point (my big on starts with two teams in week 13). Survivor contests are like NCAA hoops bracket contests in that your strategy should depend on the specific pool that you're entering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanks Posted September 10, 2016 Report Share Posted September 10, 2016 My strategy is to tail brick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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