JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

(21) Baylor -31 over Rice:
The Bears (2-0) may not resemble explosive offensive type team under former head coach Art Briles over the past few seasons. However, they did post wins in convincing fashion over Northwestern St and SMU heading into their road matchup against Conference USA foe Rice (0-2) on Friday night. Last week it took a while for the offense to click gears, but Seth Russell finally led Baylor to the end zone just after halftime breaking a 6-6 tie enabling Baylor to squash SMU 40-13 in Waco. Russell (26/47 261 2 TD 2 INT) looked like JaMarcus for at least a half, but helped Baylor outscore the Mustangs 34-7 in the second half after a really slow start. Russell also ran for a 19 yard scoring scamper, while KD Cannon (10-93 1 TD) and Blake Lynch (6-95 1 TD) each caught TD passes. The Baylor defense forced 5 SMU turnovers including an Orion Russell 33 yard pick 6. The Bears also rushed for 275 yards averaging 5 per carry led by Terrence Williams (19-81 4.3). SMU QB Ben Hicks (17/44 229 1 TD 3 INT) couldn't find the end zone until midway through the 4th quarter finding Courtland Sutton (6-112 1 TD) on a 20 yard scoring pass. 

Meanwhile Rice got ambushed last week by Army in their trek up to West Point 31-14 thanks to largely in part their defense surrendering 348 rushing yards. Andy Davidson (23-107 4.3 3 TD) led the balanced attack and outgained Rice (21-92 4.4) all by himself. Tyler Stehling (16/30 197 1 TD 1 INT) had another mediocre at best effort, and the Owls committed 3 turnovers while capitalizing on just 1 of 10 3rd down opportunities. Army dominated in time of possession for 40 minutes and also doubled Rice on first downs by a margin of 24-12.

For those Baylor faithful looking for Russell (40/67 424 6 TD 2 INT) to showcase his accuracy as well as dominance in the passing game, week 3 could be the breakout chance. Cannon (15-139 2 TD) and Blake Lynch (8-126 2 TD) are his main targets, but a nifty luxury for Russell has been a solid running game. Shock Linwood (27-156 5.8) was held to just 59 yards in the win over SMU but all it takes is a big game for this up tempo offense to make an immediate impact. Williams (30-153 5.1 2 TD) thus far has been the go to guy on the ground for this balanced high powered attack, not to mention JaMycal Hasty (14-132 9.4 1 TD) to complete this three headed monster. The Rice defense has been awful thus far giving up 519 passing yards by Mike White in an opening weekend loss to Western Kentucky 46-14. Rice has two decent defensive backs in Emmanuel Ellerbee and Alex Lyons, but the rest of the front is young as is their secondary. OS the experience of Russell combined with a dominant running game could expose Rice and rekindle the offense Baylor is used to running.

Rice is just 119th overall in total offense averaging just 289 per contest thus far. We tried to give him the benefit of the doubt early, but Stehling (38/67 380 1 TD 3 INT) at times has looked lost with no cushion in the receiving core nor ground game. Stehling and Darik Dillard are the rushing leaders combining for just 152 yards in all. James Mayden is Stehling's top target (6-83) and Connor Cella (2-69 1 TD) broke the ice last week with the only TD reception. But the bigger problem has been a secondary that’s seen two very different passing games, getting ripped up by the Hilltopper air show in Week One, and allowing Army to complete 4-of-6 throws to keep things moving last week.

This is where Seth Russell and the passing game go off and start looking like the Baylor offense is supposed to. These teams last met on September 26, 2015 when the Bears at home defeated the Owls with a score of 70-17. While the final outcome may not be as dominating, a better than 4 TD cover should not be much to ask for as long as Russell and company come out firing and contain a Rice squad that is lacking big time playmakers. Baylor's defense has also been underrated particularly early in the season against lesser opponents. They've given up just 20 points in 2 games to date, and I don't see Rice even putting up that much Friday night.

I'll have another play for Saturday.

[Mofome]

Thanks again Jimmy! Bol brotherman

[jimmythegreek]

Middle Tennessee St -6 over Bowling Green (bought half):
After pitching a shutout a few weeks back against Alabama A&M, the Blue Raiders (1-1) were vaporized in week 2 by Vanderbilt 47-24. The Commodores took control after a near 2 hour weather delay with a 28 point second quarter highlighted by Ralph Webb (29-211 7.3 2 TD) having a career day. Kyle Schurmur (15/28 113 1 TD) failed to complete a pass on his first 7 attempts but bounced back after mother nature's interruption. The Commodores defense forced 3 turnovers and scored on a safety when Webb stripped the ball away on a 16 yard punt return by Richie James. Freshman Brent Stockstill (38/65 399 3 TD 1 INT) set school passing records across the board. James (14-183 1 TD) also set a record for receptions and receiving yards despite the turnover, but MTSU was held to just 96 on the ground. The Blue Raiders head to Doyt L Perry Stadium to face Bowling Green (1-1) out of the Mid-American Conference. Last week the Falcons needed to survive a failed last second 2 point attempt to hold off North Dakota 27-26. James Knapke (23/40 315 3 TD 2 INT) hooked up with Scott Miller (5-161 3 TD) on scoring passes of 71, 51 and 11 yards respectively. The Fighting Hawks held the Falcons to just 90 rushing yards and nearly pulled off the upset after trailing 21-10 at the half. Keatin Studstrud (21-36 219 1 TD) found Stetson Carr on a 3 yard scoring pass that cut Bowling Green's lead to a point after Jake Suder missed the PAT on the Falcons' previous TD. Studsrud just missed Carr in the corner of the end zone as the potential game winning conversion pass skipped off his fingertips. 

Stockstill (68/101 728 8 TD 2 INT) doesn't have much size but possesses quickness and agility out of the pocket along with a strong accurate arm. L'Tavius Matters (20-127 6.4 1 TD) has the only score on the ground, but MTSU has been relatively one dimensional thus far representing an up tempo offense that likes to challenge opposing secondaries on the run. They operate quick in the play clock and are not bashful when it comes to pulling off some trickery catching the defense off guard or napping. James (22-256 2 TD) is Stockstill's top target with Patrick Smith (8-113 2 TD) and Ty Lee (10-95 1 TD) among numerous options in the passing game. Given Bowling Green's vulnerability in the pass defense, surrendering 318 yards per contest and 8 overall TD thus far, expect to see Stockstill firing the ball downfield to an array of receivers in his arsenal. The Falcons have the 3rd worst defense in the country allowing 630 yards per contest.

Knapke (35/73 479 3 TD 4 INT) certainly looked worlds better last week than his performance in the season opening loss to Ohio St 77-10. Truth be told, the Falcons aren't much of a running team either with just 160 yards onthe ground through their first 2 games. Ronnie Moore (8-84) has accumulated the only rushing score, and Fred Coppet (25-81 3.2) has had limited touches thus far. Scott Miller (9-188 3 TD) is the lone deep threat and playmaker that could challenge James stride for stride in the air show and receiving core. Middle Tennessee's line and cornerbacks should be strong, but there’s some work to do for veteran defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix in solidifying the unit. Myles Harges is a physical tackler who missed most of 2015 with injuries. Chris Melton and Darius Harris are promising youngsters. Cornerbacks Mike Minter and Jeremy Cutrer make up one of the best coverage duos in Conference USA. Disipline however will be key as MTSU needs to cut down on their physical and mental mistakes as evident by their 180 penalty yards charged to them. 

While we can expect to see a lot of passing yardage in this one accompanied by a ton of points, the glaring disparity focuses on Stockstill's ability to get rid of the ball quickly to set up quick strikes and short conversions on downs. The Falcons' defense is completely overmatched. While they will also put up some points behind Knapke, they may not operate as successful nor frequent and won't be able to score in a toe to toe contest. Running the ball efficiently might keep MTSU's aerial attack off the field, but without ball control and time of possession edges that could result in unsuccessful drives, the Blue Raiders should be able to pull away in the second half overwhelming the inconsistent front and secondary of BG.

Best of luck however you play!
YTD 3-0 1.000

[Mofome]

MTSU! Gettter done Jimmy! Was hoping to see the mighty Terps on here.

 

Great write up as always. Thanks JTG!

[KingRevolver]

Will be tailing. Thanks, Jimmy!

[Guest boatboatboat]

I love Greek seasoning

[trytrytry]

I love Greek Desserts