JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

(5)Louisville -32.5 over Virginia:
Everything is beautiful once again in well, at least part of the Bluegrass state, as the Cardinals (6-1 4-1) looked much more like their dominating selves with a 54-13 win over ACC foe NC State last week. Lamar Jackson (20/34 355 3 TD) led a charge that saw Louisville put up the first 44 of the game through the first 3 quarters of the contest before the Wolfpack showed any sign of a pulse. Jackson also opened the scoring with a 36 yard dash to paydirt included in his 17 carries for 76 yards (4.5). He later then connected with Jaylen Smith (2-90 1 TD), Cole Hikutini (6-118 1 TD) and Jamari Staples (1-16 1 TD) on scoring passes. The Cardinals out gained the Wolfpack 553-250 and converted 24 first downs to NC State's 9 while forcing 3 turnovers. Ryan Finley (16/31 226 2 TD 2 INT) finally got NC State on the board early in the 4th but by then the outcome was blatantly decided for Louisville who is looking to get back into the National Championship conversation. Louisville heads east to face Virginia (2-5 1-2) who is coming off a 35-14 defeat at the hands of North Carolina. Mitch Trubisky (24/31 310 3 TD) gave the Tar Heels the lead for good hooking up with Bug Howard (7-109 1 TD) on a 40 yard scoring pass. Trubisky then hit Thomas Jackson on a 10 yard scoring pass and rounded out the afternoon connecting with Austin Prohel (3-76 1 TD) on a 46 yard pitch to paydirt. North Carolina remained in the ACC title hunt by outgaining the Cavaliers 488-253 while producing 25 first downs. The loss was especially painful for Virginia as they need to put together some wins to keep their bowl hopes alive. Kurt Benkert (19/32 126) didn't get much real estate to throw deep into the North Carolina secondary and was limited underneath. Backup Matt Johns found Evan Butts on an 11 yard TD pass and later Taquan Mizzell (19-106 5.6 1 TD) ran it in from a yard out for Virginia, who punted 11 times despite only committing one turnover. 

The 5th ranked Cards seemed to have righted the ship after a lackluster lazily win against overmatched Duke followed by last week's blowout. Jackson (134/230 2161 18 TD 4 INT) is one of the nation's most deadliest weapons under center and is not shy of taking chances that involve making big plays. Louisville has the nation's second ranked offense at 517 yards and nearly 53 points per contest thus far. Jackson far and away is the Cardinals best rushing back in the up tempo not afraid to make huge gains with his speed and agility. In fact he's averaged 7 yards per carry and has scored 16 TD overall gaining over 900 yards thus far on the ground. It's also an added luxury when you have Brandon Radcliff (71-551 7.8 8 TD) in the backfield despite not being much of a factor in the past few games. Still, Louisville is explosive in the receiving core with James Quick (no pun intended) (32-523 4 TD) and Staples (22-426 1 TD) as Jackson's primary targets. Hikuniti (27-393 4 TD) is also a versatile third option as he is targeted in the flat and on corner routes when the opposition plays a prevent man to man. The defense has done its job too. Last week was the fourth game in which Louisville’s underrated defense gave up 250 yards or fewer this season. On the season, the Cardinals are 19th in the FBS in rushing defense yielding just 116 yards per contest and 10th nationally surrendering just 300 along with under 23 points. Shaq Williams is one of the better corners in the conference while Drew Bailey and Deangelo Brown have outside speed and can create havoc on Virginia's undersized line.

Benkert (158/275 1859 14 TD 7 INT) and this Virginia offense is no slouch when it comes to making plays and putting up some points. The passing game is a lot more efficient than what they have to show for the run. The Cavailers average about 29 points per contest, but are running into a buzzsaw top 10 national defense powerhouse. Olamide Zaccheaus (31-439 5 TD) and Keeon Johnson (34-323 3 TD) are Benkert's top targets, but going toe to toe with Louisville is certainly not the way to beat them or to at least stick around in the hunt. What makes Virginia even more vulnerable is their inability to give Benkert some protection behind a thin offensive line and running game that gains just 114 yards per game. Mizzell (83-461 5.6 4 TD) had his best effort last week against the Tar Heels but it was his lone 100 yard rushing game this season. Adding to their misfortunes thus far is their defense or lack thereof, allowing 457 yards and an average of 35 points per contest allowed. Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall appears wary of focusing too much on Jackson's running and not enough on keeping the Cards' receivers in check as evident of his resilience and high efficiency through the air. 


Don't expect Jackson to slow down when Louisville has the ball since they love to use plenty of up tempo with personnel in the mix of the run and passing games. While running the option and capitalizing on large play calls in the aerial attack could spell trouble for Virginia's corners as well as in the secondary. Virginia is going to have to shorten the game as well as the field while making plays on both sides of the ball if they expect to stay close and limit Jackson to what stands to be a ton of offense scored with his feet as well as his arm. The Cavaliers sport a heavy disadvantage in prolonging successful drives in the running game as well as lacking depth on defense. Look for Louisville to continue their winning ways as we get closer to deciding who the real players are in the postseason.

I'll have another play up for Saturday.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

pretty easy to predict who you will be on

 

last few times I checked your threads you're always on top ranked teams that have to cover big spreads

 

hopefully they play like they did against NC St and not how they did vs Duke

[Mofome]

Bol Jimmy!!! Hope the weekend treats you well

[Guest boatboatboat]

Tgf loves the Greek's

[JAKEPEAVY21]

looked like Lamar got his mojo back last week

 

they might be covering at halftime if they play like that

[jimmythegreek]

(9) Texas A&M -44.5 over New Mexico St:
So the Aggies (6-1 4-1) encountered their first SEC misstep last week, albeit at the hands of the #1 ranked team in the country dropping a 33-14 top 10 battle at Tuscaloosa. Jalen Hurts (15/25 166 2 TD 2 INT) didn't have his best game for the Crimson Tide, but he also ran for 91 yards on 21 carries (4.3) and a 37 yard TD to cap off the scoring late.Damien Harris (17-128 7.5) converted some key third downs with the game still in the balance, and OJ Howard (8-69 1 TD) caught a 5 yard scoring pass from Hurts that gave the Tide a 13-0 lead early in the second quarter. Hurts also hooked up with Calvin Ridley (4-27 1 TD) on a 4 yard scoring pass that gave Bama the lead for good midway through the third quarter. The Crimson Tide outgained A&M 461-278 and converted 7 of 14 third down attempts while the defense forced 2 turnovers and allowed just 114 rushing yards. Jonathan Allen returned a fumble 30 yards to paydirt and Adam Griffith added 2 chippie field goals. Trevor Knight (14/31 164 2 TD 1 INT) found Christian Kirk (9-58 1 TD) on a 25 yard scoring play to give the Aggies a brief 14-13 lead early in the third quarter, but was relatively inaccurate the rest of the way. A&M returns home Kyle Field this evening to host the New Mexico St Aggies (2-5 1-3) out of the Sun Belt who fell to Georgia Southern 22-19 last week. Kevin Ellison (7/8 101 2 TD 1 INT) relieved an ineffective Seth Shuman (4/12 56 1 INT) hooking up with Wesley Fields on a 42 yard TD pass that gave the Eagles the win. Ellson also ran for 117 yards on 20 carries (5.9) while Fields added 88 on 12 touches (7.3). Younghoe Kooo added 2 chippie field goals, and Georgia Southern forced 4 Aggie turnovers despite getting outgained 432-404 overall. Tyler Rogers (22/39 250 2 TD 1 INT) tied the game at 6 apiece finding OJ Clark (3-30 1 TD) on a 6 yard TD toss, but the PAT failed. Parker Davidson gave the Aggies a 12-6 lead with 2 field goals, and Rogers found Jonathan Boone (2-45 1 TD) on a 32 yard scoring play to get within 3 at the 1:19 mark, but Georgia Southern recovered the ensuing onside kick. 

Knight (129/246 1664 11 TD 6 INT) has the arm and ability to make big time throws down the field, however he has been hampered by inefficiency as evident by his 52% completion percentage. However, he is especially dangerous in the open field (78-520 6.7 9 TD) and out of the pocket and can also run option with Traveon Williams (91-727 8.0 5 TD) who was limited by a stout Alabama run defense to just 23 yards on 9 carries (2.6). Top targets Josh Reynolds (27-515 5 TD) and Kirk (49-410 5 TD) represent legitimate deep ball threats as well as success underneath for ample yards after the catch. A&M averages a nice balance of the run and pass, and nearly 500 yards of total offense fueled by 38 points per contest. On defense, they surrender only about 21.5 points per game, but don't let that fool you nor their opponents. They also allow 440 yards, but make big plays when they count stopping long sustained drives that extend deep in their territory. They had nice leads against South Carolina and were forced to OT by Tennessee ahead comfortably before prevailing. A&M has looked especially vulnerable against the run over the past few games, and LB Claude George was victimized by Hurts and his ability to run the hurry up with his blazing speed on keepers. DC John Chavis knows that if A&M would like to stay in the playoff contention, that he cant look past NMSU despite the lower step in class.

New Mexico St will try and stop their 2 game losing streak against a hostile crowd and defense. The Aggies average just 135 yards overall per contest on the ground, and that plays well into the A&M Aggies game plan. Rogers (155/280 2008 11 TD 10 INT) like Knight has potent arm strength but takes a lot of chances downfield more prone to turning the ball over. Rogers does have a balanced core with his receivers led by Gregory Hogan (25-325 3 TD), Clark (29-237 1 TD) and Tyrian Taylor (14-304). Rogers (85-234 2.8 3 TD) calls his own number on running plays about a third of the time, and New Mexico St has just 7 rushing scores all season thus far. When on the move, New Mexico St does produce in the aerial attack as a top 20 passing team, but has come up short on 3rd and 4th down makeable conversions due to their woes in the ground game. Defense is another achilles hell yielding about 42 points per contest. With Keith Ford recovering from an ankle injury that limited him to just 62 yards against Alabama, that poses bad news for a run defense that surrenders about 250 yards per contest. NMSU has a pair of freshman tackles who will have their hands full with A&M's talented defensive ends.

You kind of have to be careful in this one since both Aggies will playing against each other evident by their same nickanmes. Good luck in trying to fool your local when placing your wager as well. This definitely will be a reprieve for A&M who needs to put their first loss behind them and get back to their winning ways against a much lesser non-conference foe. Knight and the running game should thrive against an exposed defense both against the run and passing games. A&M needs to also capitalize on defense themselves because the more they succumb to long New Mexico St drives, the less it limits their ability to making quick strikes. I'm not worried about the large number here, as A&M could easily eclipse that number by halftime. Sometimes you need to grab your balls and hope for the best, which we will do this afternoon hoping to end this 4 game slide.

Best of luck however you play!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

another ranked team with huge chalk

 

jimmy, you are too predictable 

[Bimmercando]

All fine by me Jimbo