JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

(23)Western Michigan -21 over Kent St:
The unbeaten and 23rd ranked Broncos (9-0 5-0) head out to Dix Stadium to play the Golden Flashes (3-6) in their 3rd road game over the last 4 contests. Last Tuesday night, Western Michigan had their way big time with Ball St in a 52-20 rout of the Cardinals. Zach Terrell (23/34 367 3 TD) had one of his better efforts of the season against one of the conference's more porous defenses. All 3 of Terrell's TD tosses were to Corey Davis (12-272 3 TD) who broke a single season school record for receiving yardage and career TD receptions with 47. Jarvion Franklin ran for 107 yards on 19 carries (5.6) and 2 TD, while Darius Phillips took back a 75 yard INT return to paydirt to open the scoring. The Broncos outgained Kent St 553-497 and forced 4 turnovers staying unbeaten in the MAC. Kent St (3-6 2-3) held on for a hard fought 27-24 win over Central Michigan (5-5 2-4) last week. Shayne Hines kicked a 35 yard field goal as time expired to help the Golden Flashes pull off the mild upset of the Chippewas. Nick Holley (24-144 6.0 1 TD) ripped off a 68 yard run that tied the game midway through the 4th quarter. Justin Rankin (15-78 5.2 1 TD) also scored on a 1 yard run to alleve Holley (10/18 102 1 TD 1 INT) of a rough time gaining consistency through the air. The Kent St defense played well against Cooper Rush (20/43 244 2 TD 3 INT) and limited Central Michigan to just 105 rushing yards while forcing 5 turnovers in all despite being outgained 349-330. 

Terrell (174/243 2362 23 TD 1 INT) is one of the nation's most efficient QB's sporting a cannon for an arm while making high percentage throws limiting turnovers. The Broncos have an extremely balanced game plan mixing up the run and pass to the tune of 508 yards and 45 points per contest. Davis (61-1011 14 TD) has big play speed getting behind defensive backs in the secondary with surefire hands. The senior has no less than 5 catches in every contest with all but 2 games under 100 receiving yards. Michael Henry (47-523 3 TD) is also a viable option albeit in shorter situations. Making WMU even more dangerous is Franklin (174-1018 5.9 9 TD) whose stout frame and balance has generated big plays especially in early down situations. Jamauri Bogan (106-589 5.6 7 TD) did most of his damage early in the non-conference play, but still remains a secondary threat in the backfield. Western Michigan's defense also cannot be sold short as they allow an average of just 19.3 points per contest and are especially tough against the run yielding only 149 yards overall. Linebackers Caleb Bailey and Kasey Carson pose legitimate threats on the outside and show relentless charges on opposing QB's forced out of the pocket. 

For Kent St, Holley (55/106 668 3 TD 2 INT) is the second of 2 QB's used by head coach Paul Haynes after Mylik Mitchell (39/69 363 5 TD 1 INT) went down with an injury. The Golden Flashes rarely throw the ball. In fact, they are 125th in the country averaging just 131 passing yards per game. Holley (160-775 4.8) is more of an option call your own number back as evident by his 9 rushing TD's. Rankin (83-381 4.6 2 TD) otherwise is the primary rusher who put forth a decent effort last week in the win over CMU. Rankin is also a mild duo threat leading the Golden Flashes with 24 receptions and 300 yards. Unlike the Broncos, Kent St runs more of a legitimate efficiency tempo hoping to cash in on long running possessions keeping opposing offenses off the field. Their defense averages just 370 yards and 26 points per contest, but against Western Michigan will be a real test. 

The Golden Flashes do have a solid defense, but with the limitations on offense they can only do so much. They might keep the Broncos in check early, but it’s only a matter a time before they crack. If they struggle at all early on defense, this game could get really ugly, as Kent State can’t play from behind. The Broncos have a +15 turnover margin, as the offense has committed just 3 turnovers all season. Defensively, they have forced at least 2 turnovers in 7 straight games. Turnovers could definitely play a big role in this game. If Kent State has to throw more than they would like, chances are Broncos will capitalize.

I'll have another pick for Saturday.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

[Mofome]

Get it Jimmy! Hope all is well as the holidays near my friend

[richsox24]

This line will definitely close higher.   maybe close to 23/23.5

[plommer]

Good luck Zimmy!!

[jimmythegreek]

This line will definitely close higher.   maybe close to 23/23.5

 

That was my exact thought rich as I seen it open Sunday night at 19 only to climb. 

[jimmythegreek]

(3) Michigan -21 over Iowa (bought half):
The third ranked Wolverines (9-0 5-0), one of 5 remaining unbeatens left in FBS play, head to Ames to face Iowa (5-4) whom after 2 straight losses find themselves in a fight to become bowl eligible. The maize and blue mauled Maryland 59-3 last week at the big house in a contest that was even more mismatched on the field than on paper. Wilton Speight (19/24 362 2 TD) gave Michigan all the scoring it needed finding Amara Darboh (4-77 1 TD) on a 34 yard TD. The Wolverines ran off the first 45 points of the game before the Terrpains (5-4 2-4) finally got on the scoreboard thanks to an Adam Greene 37 yard field goal early in the 4th quarter. Speight also connected with Jehu Chesson (5-112 1 TD) on a second 34 yard TD toss as well as running for a 10 yard scamper to paydirt. The Wolverines outgained Maryland 660, never punted, nor committed a turnover while the defense forced 3 Terrapin miscues. Deveon Smith (19-114 6.0 3 TD) led a rushing attack that gained 273 total yards on the ground. Even John O Korn 2/3 25 1 TD) saw some mop up duty and found Kekoa Crawford (2-25 1 TD) on a 9 yard scoring toss to cap the onslaught. Caleb Rowe (12/23 202 2 INT) was no match for a Michigan defense that beat Maryland receivers to the punch and allowed just 78 rushing yards. Meanwhile, in Happy Valley's Beaver Stadium in front of 106,000 fans, Trace McSorley (11/18 240 2 TD) connected with Saeed Blacknall on a 19 yard TD, Saquon Barkley (20-167 8.4 1 TD) blitzkrieged an undersized Hawkeye front 7 for a 57 yard scoring run, and McSorley added a 1 yard dive into the end zone leading The Nittany Lions to a 41-14 rout of Iowa. Barkley also later caught a 44 yard TD pass from McSorley and Tyler Davis added 2 field goals. Penn State played a turnover free contest punting just twice and outgaining Iowa 600-234 overall. CJ Beathard (18/26 204 1 TD 1 INT) didn't get much of an opportunity to move the ball against a stout Nittanies defense, who limited the Hawkeyes to just 30 yards rushing overall. 

Speight (149/231 2053 15 TD 3 INT) is heating up not just in efficiency over the last few weeks, but has now averaged 290 passing yards over the last 3 games leading the charge early. Speight also benefits from the 15th ranked rushing attack in the nation averaging nearly 500 total yards per contest overall. Darboh (42-741 6 TD) and Jake Butt (34-421 4 TD) are Speight's top playmakers, with Chesson (25-416 2 TD) making a huge impact as a viable third option last week. Smith (109-564 5.2 8 TD) is one of four backs with at least 400 rushing yards on Harbaugh's balanced squad, and the Wolverines are one of the best in the country running for 36 TD overall. While the offense averages better than 48 points per contest, their defense is virtually stifling yielding just 246 yards on average and fewer than 11 points per game. Led by Heisman candidate Jabril Peppers, Ryan Glasgow highlighting a domintaing front line, and Chase Winovich with great speed and strength on the outside, only 3 opposing QB's have survived 60 minutes of hell thus far. Iowa's offensive attack will be about ball control and catching the Wolverines out of position on play action, because if this becomes a shootout, Harbaugh will not lighten is foot off the gas pedal even with a commanding lead late.

Kinnick Stadium will no doubt be rocking Saturday night in prime time, but can Beathard (136/227 1584 13 TD 5 INT) solve Michigan's dominance in the secondary and up close outclassed by speed and agility on the line? Beathard is the most efficient QB the Wolverines will face thus far, but the senior is more about efficiency and poise rather than up tempo looking to succeed on long engineering drives that favor time of possession. Beathard has some depth in the receiving alliance, led by Riley McCarron (34-378 3 TD) who however was a virtual non-factor against Penn St last week. George Kittle (19-289 2 TD) and Matt Vanderberg (19-284 3 TD) are also viable options, but the true one two punch is accented in the running game. Akrun Wadley (99-664 6.7 8 TD) and LeShun Daniels Jr (129-642 5.0 6 TD) basically account for the entire ground attack. The Hawkeyes are a much more slow paced methodical group averaging just 335 yards and 27 points per game, with most of their success dependent upon efficiency combined with a respectable defense. Iowa surrenders about 21 points and 400 yards per game, which could pose a challenge to Michigan's ample attack. This will be just the Wolverines' third road contest thus far this season. Michigan's strength is stopping inside runs, on which the Hawkeyes rely. Unless Iowa manages to control the interior of the trenches, the coaches must be willing to attack the outside with screens and sweeps, among other play calls. Avoiding getting into a shootout at all costs will make this contest more competitive, however execution in field goals will extinguish any hopes of a cover or upset. Iowa outside linebackers Ben Niemann and Bo Bower are no better than average in coverage, so Buttcould put together one of his best games this season if Speight maintains his efficiency and durability. 

Beathard will probably be under duress throughout the game, and he's not showed an ability to carry the Hawkeyes without a reliable rushing attack. This unfortunately will play into Michigan's advantage. Iowa will deem successful stopping some of the Wolverine's drives, but eventually they will get worn down since they aren't experts at forcing turnovers, something Harbaugh relies on to create short fields and quick strike points for the maize and blue. As we draw closer to National Championship playoff positioning, Michigan will continue to make a bold statement starting with Speight and company ending with a resounding screeching halt on defense.

Best of luck however you play!