Guest boatboatboat Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 New England Patriots vs. Atlanta FalconsSpread: Opened New England -3; now New England -3Total: Opened 58; now 59Public consensus pick: 68 percent pick New EnglandPublic perception: The public is decidedly on the favored Patriots, and other bet-tracking sites also have pick percentages in the mid-60s. That's understandable. New England is by far the more popular team in sports betting circles and has an NFL-best 15-3 ATS this season for its backers (12-2 ATS since Tom Brady served a four-game suspension to start the season). The Falcons have become more of a public team this season, with the No. 1 scoring offense at 33.8 points per game in the regular season and two routs in the playoffs that have improved them to 12-6 ATS overall, but their support from the public still pales compared with New England's.Wiseguys' view: The Falcons are considered the "sharp" side in this Super Bowl. Professional bettors have snatched up the +3.5s when they've become available, and some books reported sharp action at +3 (EVEN) to keep those books from going to 3.5 despite the onslaught of public action. But there are certainly plenty of sharps also siding with the Patriots. Dave Tuley's take: All season long, I've prefaced my Falcons game previews with the fact I'm a little biased because they were my Super Bowl value bet here at Chalk since the night of last year's Super Bowl, and I have them at 100-1. Well, they've come through for me time and again, and I'm not going to back down now. I truly believe the Falcons are the right side, especially when they're getting a full field goal. I respect the Patriots, but I see this as a very evenly matched game, especially considering how well both teams are playing coming into the Super Bowl. Our NFL Vegas Rankings have the Patriots only 1 point better than the Falcons, but my personal power ratings have this game at pick-em. This line is inflated because oddsmakers have shaded it higher to account for public money dominating on Super Sunday.Looking at the actual matchups on the field, I'll take Matt Ryan with his RB tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman plus Julio Jones and a supporting cast of talented receivers, and you can have Tom Brady with his tandem of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis with a similar hodge-podge of receivers. Granted, the Patriots have the better overall defense, and I would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned after watching the Pats shut down a similarly balanced offense in the Steelers two weeks ago -- not to mention Bill Belichick getting two weeks to prepare -- but if any offense is going to be able to adjust and find a way to score, it's the Falcons.Atlanta's defense allows nearly 10 points more per game than New England, but that's because the Falcons get involved in more shootouts. I expect this game will be a shootout as well -- as will be discussed more in my breakdown below of the over/under -- and I believe the Falcons will be more comfortable.The pick: Falcons +3*.Rufus Peabody: The line on the Super Bowl opened at New England -3 and has stayed there. I think that's too low, though my line isn't different enough to warrant more than a lean on the game. The Massey-Peabody ratings tab Atlanta and New England as the best two offenses in football, but their defenses are another story. While New England ranks first, Atlanta is only 24th. That's a huge difference, and it's why I make the spread here New England -4.7. If it (miraculously) drops to -2.5, I'll be on the Patriots, otherwise I'll be waiting for a good New England money-line opportunity come post time (as the public loves betting the favorite on the point spread and the underdog money line).ATS pick: Lean New England -3Erin Rynning: The Falcons have an explosive offense, but the burden to win this contest will eventually fall on their defense to step up. That will be a tricky proposition against Tom Brady and the Patriots, who have a prodigious offense of their own. New England has familiarity and performs well against the Falcons' zone type of scheme. Atlanta lacks all-around pressure, and a smaller front will lead to the Patriots keeping the Falcons off balance with the run game. Certainly, the Patriots' experience and the duo of Brady and Bill Belichick are a difference-maker in this matchup as well.Still, as I've mentioned over the past month, the Patriots' defensive scoring numbers are largely built against subpar quarterbacks. Matt Ryan is an elite passer and will pose an immense threat to finally put the Patriots' defense to the test, which makes my pick just a lean to the Patriots.ATS pick: Lean to New England -3 TotalWarren Sharp: Both of these defenses are receiving entirely too much respect. While New England is No. 1 in points allowed, compared with other Super Bowl defenses with that title, the Patriots' defense ranks 16th in total defensive efficiency and 23rd in pass defense. This game's ability to exceed or fail to hit the total hinges on one key element -- the pass rushes. And in this case, the edge is strongly to both offenses.This should allow both teams to utilize the entirety of their passing playbooks. Unlike other Super Bowl battles where the quarterbacks are not veterans or offenses don't have much firepower, this game is completely different. While the defenses have spent two weeks trying to prepare for these offenses, you can rest assured that Kyle Shanahan and Josh McDaniels are scheming just as hard to attack the numerous weaknesses of theses defenses. These are two clever and creative coordinators who never just "do what we do" but, rather, capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses.I understand why some contrarian bettors will want to fade the over at such a high total, but this game isn't Denver vs. Carolina in Super Bowl 50. This is a game where no lead will be safe and where both offenses will be creatively pressing the envelope to put up 7s each drive. I grabbed over 57 when it opened as a full recommendation, but would still lean to the over at 58.5 or 59.Lean: Over 59Tuley's take: I'm expecting a shootout in Super Bowl LI. I think everyone knows by now that the Falcons were the best over team in the league at 15-2-1, and I've said time and again this season that the oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough to catch up with them. In fact, before the conference championship games, I wrote that I felt the record over/under of 61 points in the Falcons-Packers game was still too low and said I would have made it 66 (for the record, there were 65 points scored in the Falcons' 44-21 victory as we cashed with our best bet on the over). I also said I would make the Super Bowl total 66, because the sports books are always complaining about how they need the under.\I was among those betting. Again, I feel it's at least a touchdown too low, and there's actually value on the over at anything under 60. Now, the Patriots haven't been as much of an over team this year; in fact, they were 6-10 during the regular season. However, they're 2-0 with the overs in the playoffs, and if you take away the 1-3 mark in games before Brady returned from suspension, over/unders are 7-7 with Brady, so there's no reason to think the Patriots can't play to this number, too. Both defenses can step up at times (and, hey, an INT or strip-sack can also lead to points!) but the offenses should dominate. The Super Bowl is also conducive to big plays because of its long timeouts to fit in all the commercials, and both coaching staffs should be able to take advantage of the extra time to set up big plays all game long.The pick: Over 59*Peabody: The total opened at 58, and while it has remained fairly steady offshore (up to 58.5 now), it has steadily climbed in Las Vegas. I expect that it will continue to do so. More so than in any other game, the Super Bowl's line movement will be driven primarily by public money -- and the public loves betting the over. My numbers peg the total at 56, and while I already have a lot of indirect exposure to the under via prop bets, I'll probably take a bite on the under if it gets to 60, which I expect it will in Las Vegas close to game time. For now, I'll sit back and wait, but the play officially is on the under. My advice: Wait as long as you can before betting it.Pick: Under 59 (but I expect there to be 60s on Sunday)Rynning: With a plethora of points and games flying over the total in the NFL playoffs, it's no surprise the market setting this total sky high. However, the time to make money betting the over has passed, and any value is seemingly on an under position. I made this number shy of the posted total, but not enough difference to warrant a bet.Pick: Pass Prop bets GeneralTotal players to attempt a passSharp: The team that is trailing in this game is going to feel extreme pressure to get back into the game quickly, primarily because the opponent is up and, likely, is scoring easily. I certainly see the opportunity for a pass originating from a non-QB.The play: Over 2.5 (+180)Will there be a safety? Peabody: The public loves to bet the yes on this, and it has been rewarded over the past five years, but betting on a safety is the ultimate sucker's bet. Because of all the action books will take on the "yes," I'd wait until close to kickoff, because it's likely the price will get better. This is a pretty simple prop to handicap. Safeties are pretty unpredictable, rare and easy to model (using the Poisson distribution). Despite a slight uptick in safeties this season, and teams' increased propensity to take intentional safeties in the final seconds, I still price the "no" at around -1300.The play: No (-900)Will either team score in the first 6.5 minutes of the game?**(Includes safety)YES -140NO +120Tuley: I don't often lay extra juice, but this does tie in with my expectation of a high-scoring game. Both teams are capable of scripting an opening drive for a score, whether it's a touchdown or field goal. And if the first team goes three-and-out or otherwise doesn't mount a long drive, there should be time for the second team to score before we get to the 8:30 mark of the first quarter.The play: Yes -140Largest lead of the game by: either team OVER 16.5 -120UNDER 16.5 EVENTuley: We're expecting this game to be a back-and-forth shootout, with neither team getting too big of a lead. Last year, this number was 13.5 because the game had a much lower total, so I'm glad we're getting an increase over two touchdowns just in case.The play: Under 16.5 (EVEN)Player to score first touchdown:Tuley: This oldie-but-goodie remains the most popular prop bet on the board as bettors try to cash a ticket that's more than even-money. It makes sense that the running backs and star receivers are the favorites at around 8-1, but I'm taking a flyer on Atlanta QB Matt Ryan at 20-1. OK, I know he didn't have a single rushing touchdown in the regular season, but did you see what happened in the NFC Championship Game? Ryan ran 14 yards for a TD to put the Falcons up 17-0. I know that he's more likely to hand the ball to Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman if they're in close, but I can't help but think Ryan knows he has to win this game to turn around his reputation and legacy. And we've seen, with Jim McMahon in Super Bowl XX and John Elway with the famous "helicopter run" in Super Bowl XXXII, that quarterbacks will take matters into their own hands if they need to.I can see Ryan trusting his legs over his arm again early in this game. It's not quite the payoff I hit when taking the Bears' Devin Hester (30-1) to score the first TD in Super Bowl XLI and watching him run back the opening kickoff, but I'll take it.The play: Matt Ryan at 20-1Tuley: The "Double Result" prop asks you to pick the winner of the first half to the winner of the game. But what I like to do is bet for the game to be tied in the first half and take both teams to win the game. I didn't cash last year, when the Broncos led the Panthers 13-7 at halftime, but I did hit it two years ago with the Seahawks and Patriots and cashed out at 7-1 overall as both options were listed at 15-1).The pick: Tie/Patriots and Tie/Falcons (if we get the tie at halftime, our overall payoff -- since we will lose one of the wagers -- will net 5.5-1 odds if New England wins the game and 7-1 if Atlanta wins).Will the game be tied after 0-0? **Score is counted after the completion of extra point or two-point conversionYES +110NO -130Tuley: This coincides with my belief that you should bet the way you think the game will turn out. Because I'm expecting a close game, this prop pays us off at plus money if the game is tied later on in the game (and unlike my previous bet, it doesn't have to be at exactly halftime). With the Super Bowl also expected to be a high-scoring game, this increases the chances that it lands back on a tie.The play: Yes +110 http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=i/chalk/icons/chalk_ne.png?w=110&h=110 Patriots related60.5 rushing yards by LeGarrette Blount (O/U -110)Parolin: There's nothing fancy about Blount's rushing style. Ask members of the Steelers' defense, several of whom Blount carried from the 11-yard line down to the 2 in the AFC Championship Game. He has averaged only 42 yards per game over his past five games, but check out those defenses; the Steelers, Texans, Dolphins, Jets and Broncos allow a combined 4.05 yards per rush and 1.60 yards after contact per rush inside the tackles.No surprise, then, that Blount does his best work against teams without stout defensive fronts -- which brings us to the Falcons. Atlanta is allowing 4.54 yards per rush inside the tackles, 28th in the league and almost a half-yard more than Blount's past five opponents. The entire difference is yards after contact, and no team allows more yards after contact per rush than the Falcons (2.05).The Colts are an example of what could happen if power running is part of the Patriots' game plan and a team can't stop it. The Patriots have averaged 193 rush yards per game in the past four games against Indy, including 135.7 yards per game by Blount in his three games. If Atlanta struggles against the run, New England will just keep pounding the ball. Also, if you like the Patriots to win, a 60.5 yards total is low enough that Blount could hit it just by salting away clock effectively late in the game.The play: OverWill LeGarrette Blount score a TD? Peabody: While Blount has scored 19 of New England's 21 rushing touchdowns this season and faces a Falcons team that has struggled to stop the run, it is no sure bet that Blount finds the end zone. Blount accounted for 70 percent of New England's rush attempts, and 83 percent of its attempts inside the opponents' 5-yard line, in the first 10 weeks, but since Dion Lewis has returned, Blount's usage has fallen to 56 percent (74 percent inside the 5). While I still project Blount at 0.75 TDs, that makes him only a -112 favorite to score, so I like the value on the "no" here.The play: No (+140) 100.5 receiving yards by Julian Edelman (O/U -110)Parolin: The Falcons' defense has been particularly susceptible to slot receivers this season. Atlanta has allowed 11 more receptions (154) and 259 more receiving yards (1,764) by slot receivers than any other defense this year. While it's true some of that is a result of Atlanta being up big and opponents needing to throw, the Falcons haven't been particularly strong on a per-catch basis -- Atlanta has allowed 4.8 yards after catch by slot receivers, 25th in the NFL.That happens to be where Edelman plies his trade; he ranks in the top three in the NFL in slot targets, receptions and receiving yards. Plus, there will be a lot said this week about how Dan Quinn is trying to replicate the Seahawks' defense in Atlanta and that they're just a piece or two away; Edelman put up numbers against that same Seahawks defense, including 109 receiving yards in Super Bowl XLIX and 99 in Week 10 this season. The Falcons play a similar scheme with inferior personnel to Seattle's. Edelman should hit 101.The play: OverTotal completions by Tom BradySharp: The Falcons' lack of a pass rush will make it easier than usual for Brady in the pocket. While New England will be more balanced than in previous Super Bowls and could go run-heavy very late to salt the game away, I see no reason for the Patriots to not let their best player play a leading role in the first three quarters.The play: Over 24.5 (-110)Longest reception by Chris HoganSharp: Hogan has exceeded this number in four of the past five games that mattered, and the lone game he fell short was against the Broncos' stingy defense.The play: Over 21.5 (-110)Longest reception by Julian EdelmanPeabody: This opened at 30.5 but has been bet down significantly, and justifiably so. While Edelman is an oft-targeted receiver and does have nine catches of more than 26 yards on the season (7.9 percent of his catches), his career norms suggest this is unusually high. Last season, only 3.9 percent of his catches went for more than 26 yards, and in 2014 that number was a mere 3.4 percent. While he has seen more deep targets this season, he is still largely the same player, and we can't completely ignore previous seasons. Despite this number being bet down all the way from 30.5, there is still some value left on the under.The play: Under 26.5 (-110)First reception by James WhitePeabody: If White doesn't catch a pass, the under wins, but considering he's projected at over 3 receptions, that's not particularly likely. While 6.5 is the median reception length for running backs on the season, only 44 percent of White's catches have been shorter than 6.5 yards in his career. Atlanta's defense helps our cause here; 56.5 percent of the running back receptions the Falcons have given up this year have gone for more than 6.5 yards.The play: Over 6.5 yards (-110) http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=i/chalk/icons/chalk_atl.png?w=110&h=110 Falcons related325.5 passing yards by Matt Ryan (O/U -110)Tuley: Here's the one player prop I'm going to take the over on. I'm not sure if the Patriots are going to try to take away Julio Jones or if they'll focus on shutting down the Falcons' running game (and I have doubts that Atlanta can run up the middle on the New England D), but I'm pretty sure that if the Falcons' offense plays well, as I predict it will, it's going to fall on the arm of Ryan. This is a high number, but most of the times Ryan didn't reach it this season were in blowouts, when he had to resort to handing off to the running backs. I don't expect a blowout here. Plus, Ryan exceeded 325.5 in both playoff routs so far.Barring an injury, Ryan isn't coming out of this game and should be airing it out all night long. (Note: I also like Ryan's longest completion to go over 43.5 yards, and I expect he'll connect on at least one deep pass, but I don't think that's necessary to get to the overall yardage total of the game, so I don't feel as strongly on that one.)The play: Over 325.5Total rushing yards by Matt RyanSharp: In large blowouts or games where the defense was easily carved, Ryan didn't run (see games versus the Rams, 49ers, Saints and Bucs). But particularly since the bye week, in games against teams where the scoring wasn't as wild or the game was closer, Ryan would strategically run for a first down or two, and that certainly might be the case here.The play: Over 6.5 (-110)Parolin: At odds of -110, this is a clear yes -- but a +240 "no" is interesting, at least after examining the Patriots' defense. New England has allowed only six rushing touchdowns this season, and seven including playoff games, both lowest in the league. They've allowed an NFL-low three rushing plays that gained at least 20 yards this season, and there were 21 instances this season of a team recording three 20-plus-yard runs in a single game. So they limit the big play well, but how do they do near the goal line?The Patriots allow 0.94 yards per rush at or inside the 10-yard line, second-best in the league. In the AFC Championship, the Steelers had first-and-goal from inches away and were held to a field goal. Defensive tackle Alan Branch has emerged as a run-stopping force. Plus, the Falcons pass at or inside the 5-yard line at the eighth-highest percentage in the league (54 percent of plays). Between a rushing defense that doesn't give up big plays and is stout near in the red zone, and an Atlanta offense that isn't afraid to throw, +240 makes "no" a nice risk to take.The play: No (+240)Will the Falcons score a touchdown in the fourth quarter? Peabody: With the market projecting this game to be a shootout, we should be in store for plenty of touchdowns. Based on the spread and total, my algorithm projects 30 percent of Atlanta's touchdowns to come in the fourth quarter. Using my overall Falcons TD projection and some statistical inference, I get a true price of -240 on the "yes".The play: Yes -185Devonta Freeman longest rush: Peabody: If Freeman was going up against an average defense, there would be no value here whatsoever, but the Patriots defense has been excellent against the run, allowing only 3.57 yards per rush to opposing running backs. On the season, the Patriots have only allowed five rushes of more than 15 yards to opposing running backs; that comes out to 1 out of every 72 rushes! With Freeman splitting touches with Tevin Coleman, and the Pats favored, I don't expect there to be enough carries for Freeman to make it at all likely he hits a run of over 15.5 yards.The play: Under 15.5 (-110)Will Mohamed Sanu score a touchdown? (Yes +145, No -165)Parolin: The most oft-repeated characteristic of a Bill Belichick defense is "taking away the offense's top weapon." It's repeated for a reason, and there is arguably no "top weapon" in the league more dangerous than Julio Jones. One name that would come up in any argument is Antonio Brown, and the Patriots held him to seven receptions for 77 yards in the AFC Championship Game. Brown was targeted on only nine of Ben Roethlisberger's 47 attempts, leaving secondary targets the focus on 38 passes.Cobi Hamilton caught the only touchdown in the game, but there were missed opportunities galore for the Steelers' offense. Hamilton dropped one in the second quarter and caught another after running a route out of bounds. Jesse James was tackled at the 1-yard line, and Sammie Coates couldn't bring in a pass at the Patriots' 35-yard line with open field ahead of him. Ben Roethlisberger called out those teammates after the game, saying the game was "too big" for some of the young Steelers. Sanu had only one drop this season, and none after Week 1. Like the Falcons not scoring a rushing touchdown bet, this isn't a slam dunk -- but with the way the Patriots are likely to play Jones, Sanu should get his chance.The play: Yes (+145) Cross-sport propsWHO WILL HAVE MORE: (Cavaliers/Knicks February 4, 2017)KYRIE IRVING (CLE) POINTS +3.5 -110FALCONS POINTS -3.5 -110 Rynning: Irving is facing an opportunity to step up as Cleveland's main scoring threat. The talk is for LeBron James to scale back his minutes, and Kevin Love is questionable for this contest with a back injury. Irving will face a soft Knicks defense with Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings in the backcourt. With a lean to the Patriots -3 and a hint of value to the under, I'll go against the Falcons' point total.Pick: Irving points +3.5WHO WILL HAVE MORE: (Blazers/Thunder February 5, 2017)RUSSELL WESTBROOK (OKC) FREE THROWS MADE -1.5 -110JULIAN EDELMAN (NE) RECEPTIONS +1.5 -110Rynning: Westbrook is making more than 8.5 free throws per game, which makes this line fair. However, the Blazers allow almost 28 free throws per game, ranking 28th in the NBA, and they've recently played the pick-and-roll much more aggressively to the ball handler, which creates more fouls for Westbrook. I like his side here.Pick: Westbrook free throws -1.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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