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NORTHWESTERN wins @ Wisky.....big step forward in attempt at making first EVER Big Dance!

FISHHEAD

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rjt Rockstar

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Big Ten Conference

 

Teams that should be in: Michigan State
Work left to do: Illinois, Iowa
 

Locks

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2509.png&w=50&h=50&transparent=true

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/135.png&w=50&h=50&transparent=true

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/120.png&w=50&h=50&transparent=true

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/275.png&w=50&h=50&transparent=true

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/130.png&w=50&h=50&transparent=true

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/77.png&w=50&h=50&transparent=true

 

Purdue enters the Big Ten tournament as the clear favorite because it is clearly the league's best team. Other than that, though, things might get a little wacky at the Verizon Center in Washington D.C. Wisconsin stumbled to a 2-5 record down the stretch, and it looks more vulnerable to a large pack of good, but unspectacular, teams. Even talented but disappointing (to put it lightly) Indiana, as the No. 10 seed, could get hot and win a couple games. Single-elimination events always feel wide-open, but this one feels especially ripe for upheaval. By the way, Michigan is a lock. The Wolverines were ruthless in a 93-57 win at Nebraska on Sunday, which ensured that nothing close to a truly bad loss infested their resume. The Wolverines are 2-3 against the RPI top 25, 4-7 against the top 50 and 11-11 against the top 100. They are the walking personification of "solid but uninspiring." At this point, on this bubble, solid but uninspiring gets the job done.

Michigan State [18-13 (10-8), RPI: 47, SOS: 9] We're still being cautious with Michigan State. Why? The Spartans delivered average offensive efforts in back-to-back losses at Illinois and Maryland last week, their 12th and 13th losses of the season. Fourteen-loss teams are rare in the at-large annals. This bubble seems destined to yield a bumper crop of the rare species, and unless Michigan State goes out and wins the Big Ten tournament, it is almost certain to be one of them. Still, if that 14th loss came as early as Thursday, against the winner of Nebraska/Penn State, some anxiety might be warranted -- not much but some.

Illinois [18-13 (8-10), RPI: 57, SOS: 20] Oh, Illinois. After you spend all season off the radar, you scratch and claw your way onto the bubble with four straight wins in late February, only to finish the regular season with a loss at Rutgers? Rutgers?! Especially unfortunate was the timing -- not just as it pertains to Selection Sunday but that the loss came on a weekend when basically every other bubble team (save, for instance, Cal and Georgia Tech) either notched a big win or avoided a bad loss. Come on, fellas. Come. On. Now, with that unsolicited lecture taken care of, it's worth noting that, somehow, the Illini aren't out of this thing yet. A neutral-court win over Michigan on Thursday would at least keep them in the mix through the weekend while paving the way for a chance to play Purdue somewhere other than West Lafayette. (The two met just once in the regular season, at Mackey Arena, and Illinois might as well have stayed on the bus.) There remains a path forward, believe it or not.

Iowa [18-13 (10-8), RPI: 69, SOS: 46] On Feb. 15, 2014, Iowa was 19-6. A month later, when it bowed out of the First Four in Dayton, it was 20-13. On Feb. 14, 2016, the top-10 ranked Hawkeyes, led by Jarrod Uthoff, were 20-5. A month later, they were a No. 7 seed in Villanova's unrelenting bracket path, and they ended the season 22-11. For those wondering why the Watch has a habit of inserting Iowa into jokes about late-season collapses, well, there you go. It's also a preface for this: These are the Bizarro Hawkeyes. March is supposed to be when good Iowa teams make Fran McCaffery very angry and every Iowa fan quietly sad. These Hawks are (gasp) playing their best basketball down the stretch, winning at Maryland and Wisconsin in back-to-back road trips and forcing themselves onto a bubble that had no interest in them even a week ago. Saturday's win over Penn State set the stage for No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Indiana on Thursday at the Big Ten tournament, which is not a setup any Big Ten tournament bracketologist (note: these don't exist) would have charted out a few months ago. Iowa might get into the tournament! A former walk-on from Bettendorf, Iowa, is arguably the team's second-best player! A Bohannon brother made a clutch shot at the Kohl Center to beat Wisconsin! Fran McCaffery seems generally pleased! Behold the Bizarro Hawkeyes, ye mighty, and despair!

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