THURSDAY FIRST 5 INNINGS PLAY (YTD 13-13)

[jimmythegreek]

Cincinnati/Miami over 5.5 even:
Things just continue to head south for the NL Central cellar dweller Cincinnati Reds (41-60) who have lost 3 straight including dropping a 2 game interleague mini-series to the Yankees. Yesterday at the Stadium Todd Frazier hit his first HR of the season as a Yankee, Did Gregorious crushed his 16th driving in 2 and scoring 2, and Clint Frazier and Brett Gardner each went 2 for 4 as the Yankees extended their winning streak to 3 games with a 9-5 win over the Reds. Every Yankee had at least one hit except for Jacoby Ellsbury. New York broke open a 4-2 lead with 5 in the bottom of the 7th knocking out Homer Bailey, who before leaving was on the hook for 5 runs on 10 hits in just 6 innings pitched. Luis Severino went 7 strong and yielded just 2 runs on 3 hits with 2 walks and 9 strikeouts improving to 7-4 on the season. Joey Votto went 2 for 2 with a run scored and a couple of walks, while Adam Duvall belted a 3 run HR, his 21st of the year to get the Reds within 4 late, but it wasn’t enough. Cincy now heads to Miami this evening starting a 4 game series with the Marlins (46-53), who return home taking 2 out of 3 games in Texas, including a 22-10 rout Wednesday night. Christian Yelich went 4 for 5 with 4 runs scored, Marcell Ozuna also scored 4 and went 3 for 5 with 5 RBI, Giancarlo Stanton went 3 for 5 with 3 runs scored and 2 driven in including his major league leading 33rd HR, and Derek Dietrich collected 2 hits and 5 RBI in 5 trips. Miami (46-53) scored 9 runs in the decisive 4th inning to go up 11-1, and finished out the evening showing no mercy doubling their output over the last 3 innings. Jose Urena (9-4) didn’t have his best stuff surrendering 5 runs on 4 hits in 5 innings pitched with 4 walks and 5 strikeouts, but got tons of run support. Yu Darvish lasted just 3 2/3 responsible for 10 earned on 9 hits with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts as Texas went through 6 pitchers. The only bright spot was that Adrian Beltre collected 3 hits in as many at bats with 2 runs scored and 2 driven in including his 9th HR of the season to move to within 4 hits of 3,000. The Rangers (49-52) now trial the second wildcard by 4.5 games with 61 to play.

 

Chris O’Grady (1-1 5.40) is making just his 4th start of the season. The 27 year old rookie righty from upstate NY had some strong numbers at AAA New Orleans posting a 3.29 ERA in 20 appearances. With the Marlins far out of the NL Wildcard by 10 games, O’Grady is looking to prepare in proving his future belongs in a starting rotation even for a team playing out the string. He faces a Reds lineup hitting just .254 on the season averaging about 4.5 runs per contest that has some pop as evident by their 138 Hr, tied for 5th in the NL with the Cubs. Putting together productive consistent innings, not to mention starting pitching have been the achillies heels rather than power and total offense for the Reds. Likely emerging as second half sellers, the Redlegs still have a productive roster on paper. Joey Votto (.299 26 69) lost some protection in the lineup, and is in the midst of a 4 for 24 slump (.167) despite eyeing career bests for the first time since 2010. Duvall (.269 21 68) has started 17 of the last 18 games for Cincy, and despite putting up some solid numbers, leads the team with 105 strikeouts. Scott Schebler (.234 22 44) is mired in a 1 for 19 slump (.052) struggling to hit his weight and not seeing full playing time as of late. Billy Hamilton (.256 2 26) leads the majors with 43 steals in 50 attempts (86%), and is batting .292 over the last week seeing his overall mark nudge above .250. Scooter Gennett (.306 18 58) has molded into a near starting everyday player despite some struggles against lefties. Eugenio Suarez (.257 16 51) has hit .320 over the last week including 4 multi-hit games.

 

The Reds counter with Robert Stephenson (0-3 8.10) who is making just his second start in addition to 13 long relief appearances. Looking for his first win, the 24 year old sophomore righty has regularly shuttled between the major league level and AAA Louisville looking for stability. Stephenson lost last week to these same fish last week 5-4 as he allowed 5 earned on 8 hits in 5 1/3 IP walking 2 and striking out 5. He faces a Miami lineup batting .269 overall averaging about 4.7 runs per contest. However their lack of consistency and power is shown right out of the gate as Stanton has accounted for more than a quarter of their 120 HR. Stanton (.278 33 70) has hit safely in 6 of his last 7 (.317) and is tied for 6th in the NL in RBI as most of his long balls have come via the solo and 2 run variety. Ozuna (.315 23 77) has already surpassed last season’s marks and possesses one of the league’s one two punches with Stanton in the middle of a potentially dangerous lineup. Justin Bour (.289 21 63) made a little noise in the HR derby but was placed on the 10 day DL with an oblique strain. Yelich (.291 11 52) has 8 hits in his last 3 games and is 11 for his last 25 over the past week (.440). JT Realmuto (.307 11 42) has done a superb job behind the plate and has 3 3 hit games this week (.412).

 

We get another relatively cheap price this evening at a venue where we expect to see the roof closed in the searing heat and humidity in South Florida. It’s no secret to hitters that this venue clearly favors the pitchers even to each power alley at 392 and to the deepest part of the ballpark in CF 407 feet away from home plate. Still there is plenty of ground for the fielders to cover down the lines and with two pitchers going against each other looking for a quality start, you have to think the offenses will both shine early here. As this merely reigns supreme as a series for pride, it’s going to take a hero’s surge down the stretch if Miami has one last push in them to contend for one of the NL Wildcards. We look for our third straight this evening and our first taste north of the break-even mark. Best of luck however you play!

[KingKolzig]

kinda tailing with o28.5 HRE +100

 

5dimes