ESPN INSIDER Penn State---Even Jim Mora wouldn't scoff at this

[Guest boatboatboat]

Everybody starts the year undefeated. But the cruel reality of college football is that only a handful of teams have a legitimate chance of winning the 2017 College Football Playoff.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are the defending Big Ten champions for the first time since 2008. That championship did not get the Nittany Lions a CFP berth last year despite Penn State having defeated Ohio State for the Big Ten East Division title.

That seeming lack of respect carries over to this season. Penn State is not considered to be the favorite to win the Big Ten in 2017 (http://es.pn/2tBFv06), but there are many reasons to believe that James Franklin's squad can defy these odds and win back-to-back Big Ten titles for the first time.

(Note: Unless otherwise specified, all of the metrics detailed below are from Power 5 contests and the associated team and player rankings are from the 65 Power 5 teams.)

Penn State's recruiting status

It comes as no surprise that over the past five years Ohio State and Michigan are the leading recruiters in the Big Ten.

What may be a surprise is Penn State ranks third in the conference in four- and five-star recruits (44) and ESPN 300 recruits (31) signed over the past five seasons. This shows that Franklin's legendary salesmanship is drawing talented players to Happy Valley.

Lots of returning talent

Penn State ranks tied for first in the Big Ten in number of returning starters (16). This personnel stability could also give it an edge over powerhouse teams from other conferences, as the Nittany Lions rank tied for eighth nationally in returning starters and tied for first in returning starters among the defending Power 5 conference champions (Oklahoma also has 16 returning starters).

Powerhouse offense

The talent is spread across the roster, but it really shows up on offense. This platoon returns nine starters from a group that last year set or tied 31 school records while leading the Big Ten in points scored per game (38.3) and touchdowns (58).

The Big Ten's best quarterback

The player most responsible for the record-setting numbers is quarterback Trace McSorley. Last year he led the Big Ten in Total QBR (76.3) and was first in Total QBR on vertical passes (96.4 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). McSorley also ranked first in the conference in vertical completion percentage (48.3), vertical yards per attempt (13.6) and completions of 20 or more yards (56).

These dominant metrics helped McSorley set many single-season team records, including passing yards (3,614), passing touchdowns (29), total offense (3,979), touchdowns responsible (36) and 300-yard games (five).

Saquon Barkley is the best underclassman running back in Penn State history

Penn State can boast of some of the finest running backs in college football history, but over the past two years Saquon Barkley set the standard as the best underclassman running back in school history.

In his freshman 2015 season, Barkley set Penn State freshman records for rushing yards (1,076) and all-purpose yards (1,237). He followed that up with a even better sophomore season that saw him crush the class record for single-season rushing yards (1,496, 260 more than the previous high) while setting class marks in rushing touchdowns (18) and all-purpose yards (1,927). Barkley ended last season by becoming only the fourth player in Penn State history to post 300 or more all-purpose yards in a single game with 306 against USC in the Rose Bowl.

Barkley also set the standard in multiple areas for Big Ten running backs, leading the conference in rushes of 10 or more yards (43) and yards before first defensive contact (836). He placed third in rushing yards after first defensive contact (487).

All of these factors helped make Barkley one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy in 2017.

One of the best tight ends in team history

Mike Gesicki had the most prolific single season posted by a Penn State tight end, as he set tight end team records in receiving yards (679), receptions (48) and tied the record for receiving touchdowns (five). Gesicki is especially adept at vertical passes, as he ranked fourth in vertical yards by a tight end (340) and tied for fourth in vertical receptions (12).

Defensive depth will make up for personnel losses

Penn State does lose some of its top playmakers on defense, including sack and tackles-for-loss leader Garrett Sickels, but Franklin built this team for depth.

Last year, Franklin and his staff did a superb job of rotating players in and out of the lineup, as only four defensive players tallied more than 600 snaps and 24 players racked up 200 or more defensive snaps. This effort will pay off in 2017, as the Nittany Lions return two of the 600-plus snap defenders (Marcus Allen and John Reid) and bring back 19 players who had 200 or more snaps.

Elite special teams

Penn State has one of the best kickers in the nation in Tyler Davis. Last year, he set the school record for field goal accuracy (91.7 percent), converted all of his 62 extra point attempts and tied a Big Ten record with kicking points in a single season (128).

Davis is a main factor why the Nittany Lions ranked sixth last season in ESPN Stats & Information's special teams expected points added (STEPA) metric that measures special teams performance in an expected points framework (37.2). Given that Penn State returns Davis along with its punter, kick and punt returners, the odds are good that this group will be among the nation's best again in 2017.

Schedule is favorable despite midseason gauntlet

It is impossible to call the Nittany Lions' schedule easy given that Penn State plays Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back games in October, but consider the positive elements.

ESPN's Football Power Index indicates the Nittany Lions have a projected win rate of 85 percent or higher in eight of their 12 games this year. The FPI also has Penn State as significant favorites in their contests at Iowa (75.8 percent projected win rate) and at Northwestern (68.2). Even the Michigan contest is considered favorable, as the FPI has Penn State with a 73.0 percent projected win rate in that matchup. The only game that the Nittany Lions are not favored to win is the Oct. 28 matchup at Ohio State (13.8 percent win rate) but let's not forget that Penn State defeated the Buckeyes 24-21 last year.

Add it all up and it shows why Penn State has the second most favorable schedule among teams in the FPI top 25.

Bottom line

The FPI currently ranks Penn State eighth in the nation and projects the Nittany Lions to go 10-2 this season. That would not be enough to land a CFP spot, but if Penn State can pull off the upset over Ohio State it has every other element in place to be a playoff team in 2017.

[Bfo]

Fuck Penn St. Joe knew