video: sleepy addresses the forum clown plus a pick

[The X]

We need Teddy vs. Monkey.

Now thats a thought.

[Teddy kgb]

Sleepy....shave that chest Cap....

[KingRevolver]

Don't know what the fuck you goofballs are arguing about, but here are the vids I was sent...

 

 

[KingRevolver]

Brock's friend might be shorter than him.  

[The X]

Joe, it was too late to do this week fairly. I was on the fucking golf course when this prick put up a challenge.

So it's only fair to do this next week

U should match the winners share pal...

I'll knock this Jody fuck up the side of his head

True story. Guy couldn't hear the alerts on his phone while running the leaf blower in front of the guys golfing.

[Timely Hitting]

[Timely Hitting]

legit looks like an oompa loompa holding a golf club. lol

 

hands smash his belly on the follow through too. 

 

about as bad of a swing as i imagined, although he does keep his balance. doesn't prove he was golfing at 5:15 but funny none the less.

[FISHHEAD]

Looking forward to Slims critique of the golf video

[ajt]

[BGS 9.5]

Joe, it was too late to do this week fairly. I was on the fucking golf course when this prick put up a challenge.

 

So it's only fair to do this next week

 

U should match the winners share pal...

 

I'll knock this Jody fuck up the side of his head

You were on no golf course whatsoever, quit with the fairy tales. Any pro would be locked and loaded ready to attack Sleepy with great vngenance and furious anger

 

You, on the other hand, are just a posing Non heterosexual person

[rito]

brock calls it a "business" trip when he comes up to chicago as he flips on his uber app driving between place to place. 

 

I call it a business trip when I go to Medellin and visit strip clubs.

[Yanks]

[The Dark Man]

That's a golf course and a guy with a golf club in his hands.

 

Close enough.

[The X]

Tremendous. Top golf course in the world.

[Timely Hitting]

That's a golf course and a guy with a golf club in his hands.

 

Close enough.

it's undoubtedly stonewall; the hole the guy who was forced to play with him is on is the 4th hole. stonewall is a real nice course; doubtful that brock paid though.

 

i'll give brock this, he didn't wear jeans. does look like he's wearing some saucony sneakers though.

[sleepy]

must be the 150th day in a row wearing those khaki shorts

[The Dark Man]

About a 25 maybe 27. Plays upright, finishes high no shoulders, handsy takeaway. Plays short and left to right.

[MonkeyF0cker]

 

My line:

 

Sleepy -150

Brock +140

 

based on assumptions in this handy sim I wrote

import random
import numpy as np
##sleepy brock sim

brock_wins = .48
sleepy_wins = .54
num_sims = 100000

def simBets(brock_wins, sleepy_wins):
    sleepy_results, brock_results = [],[]
    ##brock bet
    for x in range(10):
        if random.random() < brock_wins:
            brock_results.append(1)
        else:
            brock_results.append(-1.1)
    ##sleepy bet
    for x in range(10):
        if random.random() < sleepy_wins:
            sleepy_results.append(1)
        else:
            sleepy_results.append(-1.1)
    sleepy_total = np.sum(sleepy_results)
    brock_total =  np.sum(brock_results)
    if sleepy_total > brock_total:
        return(1)
    elif sleepy_total == brock_total:
        return(2)
    else:
        return(0)
        
def runSim(numSims, brock_wins, sleepy_wins):
    brockWins, sleepyWins, tie = 0,0,0
    for x in range(numSims):
        result = simBets(brock_wins, sleepy_wins)
        if result == 1:
            sleepyWins += 1
        elif result == 2:
            tie += 1
        else:
            brockWins +=1
    return(sleepyWins, brockWins, tie)
    
sleepyWins, brockWins, tie = runSim(num_sims, brock_wins, sleepy_wins)

print("sleepy wins", sleepyWins/(sleepyWins+brockWins))
                

 

I'm showing about a 4.3% edge on Sleepy at those numbers.  I threw together a sim real quick too and had different results than you.  So, I did a little digging and found a problem in one of my loops.  Instead of using a sim, you can use combinatorics to check the math.  Something like this...

 

 

 

These should be the precise probabilities at 54%/48%.  I just ran a 100k sim and got approximately the same results.  I don't see the issue in your code offhand though.

[Brock Landers]

it's undoubtedly stonewall; the hole the guy who was forced to play with him is on is the 4th hole. stonewall is a real nice course; doubtful that brock paid though.

 

i'll give brock this, he didn't wear jeans. does look like he's wearing some saucony sneakers though.

brooks

[Timely Hitting]

About a 25 maybe 27. Plays upright, finishes high no shoulders, handsy takeaway. Plays short and left to right.

this is actually a little too generous for me; based on that swing and finish, and the fact that he's wearing sneakers and likely using women's or childrens clubs, brock strikes me more as a "didn't keep real score" kind of guy which puts his handicap somewhere around 35-40 and that might be a bit generous even.

[RealSlimShady]

Looking forward to Slims critique of the golf video

 

I'd make Tiger only -125 vs Brock.

What a swing! 

[The Dark Man]

Sneakers.

 

Add 5

 

+6500 yds

 

Add another 5

[rito]

I'm showing about a 4.3% edge on Sleepy at those numbers.  I threw together a sim real quick too and had different results than you.  So, I did a little digging and found a problem in one of my loops.  Instead of using a sim, you can use combinatorics to check the math.  Something like this...

 

 

 

These should be the precise probabilities at 54%/48%.  I just ran a 100k sim and got approximately the same results.  I don't see the issue in your code offhand though.

 

yea thats exactly what i get with the sim, i just threw up -150 as something close since obviously brock isn't realy 48%

[rito]

still get a lot of variance too at 100k, got to bump that up to a million (only takes 17.2 seconds on my machine)

[Brock Landers]

About a 25 maybe 27. Plays upright, finishes high no shoulders, handsy takeaway. Plays short and left to right.

thanks for the critic Tiger