KingRevolver Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Please post some questions you'd like answered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Q: Is it the AMOUNT of money wagered on a game that moves lines, or is it WHO is betting the number that moves lines? And don't say a little of both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StayGolden Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Since you can't quantify things like emotion and pressure, does that mean they don't exist ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartman Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Do you watch the games you bet on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Do you watch the games you bet on? This is actually a great question. And if the answer is NO, is that for superstition purpose or just to try and save your full head of hair (from the stress)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Q: Is it the AMOUNT of money wagered on a game that moves lines' date=' or is it WHO is betting the number that moves lines? And don't say a little of both.[/size'] It's WHO. I have proof. We move markets in OZ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Ask the guy his name and his educational background would be a good start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Chris, the obvious and correct answer is both.....and will vary differently depending on the venue, but with hoards of games on a yearly basis, the answer is and has to be BOTH..........and this is a question that is not something KR is exactly looking for, he is looking for math questions as it relates to gambling, and there is nobody in this business that does this better than the gentleman KR is posing these questions to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyL Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Something that I've been looking at...Are there situations where you ever look at "pleasers" from those books that offer them? Seems like with some of these huge pointspreads early in the college football season, there are spots where picking up the value in the added payout is worth the 6/7 points that you're selling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chickadee Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Serious question, why is he considered sharp? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDaddy Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 whats are the odds of detroit tigers winning the division as of todays standings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRevolver Posted August 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 I'm doing it now. Thanks, fellas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Hustle Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 what's the best way to win 5 spot keno? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 if you beat the pinny opening number for ncaa and nfl by 1 pt on sides what is your expected long term win % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Ask him what the expected value is on a matching $500 freeplay with 10 x RO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyberbabble Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Serious question, why is he considered sharp?Good question but I think it's impossible to give a good answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyL Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 if you beat the pinny opening number for ncaa and nfl by 1 pt on sides what is your expected long term win % Easier to figure out for basketball, but that's a tough one for football since different numbers create different edges. If you go from 2.5 to 3.5, you're going to see something completely different than going from 4.5 to 5.5. I guess you could come up with an overall average, but the 3 and 7 will certainly show a lot bigger difference over the long haul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyberbabble Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Ask him what the expected value is on a matching $500 freeplay with 10 x ROI'd rather hear your answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyL Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Ask him what the expected value is on a matching $500 freeplay with 10 x RO The rules of the free play should have a big bearing on the answer...if they only allow straight bets, it's a lot less than if they'll let you do 4 team parlays, big dogs, or play it on futures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 The rules of the free play should have a big bearing on the answer...if they only allow straight bets, it's a lot less than if they'll let you do 4 team parlays, big dogs, or play it on futures. Let's assume no parlays are allowed and against -110 lines. Let's also assume max bet is $250. I already know the answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyberbabble Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Is there enough square money to move the line a significant amount in a major sport, other than maybe Superbowl type games. If so, then fading the crowd is a viable strategy. My opinion is that this sort of edge is absorbed by the juice and so there is nothing there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyL Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 Let's assume no parlays are allowed and against -110 lines. Let's also assume max bet is $250. I already know the answer. You'd need some another assumption too. Are you assuming that you'll be 50% at picking winners during the 10x rollover period? If you were picking at 52.4%, then the answer obviously changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 You'd need some another assumption too. Are you assuming that you'll be 50% at picking winners during the 10x rollover period? If you were picking at 52.4%, then the answer obviously changes. everyone collectively are picking 50% so that is the only number we can assume Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyL Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 everyone collectively are picking 50% so that is the only number we can assume And just to confirm, max of 250 applies to both the free play and the bets that you're making during the rollover period? I'm interested in seeing what I come up with if I get a chance to run it today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted August 28, 2014 Report Share Posted August 28, 2014 And just to confirm, max of 250 applies to both the free play and the bets that you're making during the rollover period? I'm interested in seeing what I come up with if I get a chance to run it today. confirmed. It is a good simple exercise that Kinger's math guy should be able to handle with ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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