danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 I am in a heated conversation with a Twitter guy about his record. he has won avg odds 2.6yield 8.8%bets 2700 he has zero CLV over those 2700 bets he is not beating the line and is after margin he is at 0% so basically coin flips when he was at 1700 1800 another user bet him he could not sustain this over another 1000 bets, he is about 600 bets into that bet and is still winning! he does not model I think he is one of two things1 Survivorship Bias2 has some sort of skill to analyze tennis that somehow sees a bad line and the market does not have this same thing the kicker is he bets nearly 30% of ALL tennis matches not real small league stuff, mainly popular tourneys but 30% which to me is amazing what are your thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTiger Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 To me, it's almost 100% your second guess. There are enough bets to say we have a good sample. Hell, you have millions in presidential campaign money changing hands based on results using sample sizes of far less than 30% of the total population (market). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 To me, it's almost 100% your second guess. There are enough bets to say we have a good sample. Hell, you have millions in presidential campaign money changing hands based on results using sample sizes of far less than 30% of the total population (market). I think it might be he has some skill and tons of luck, that is my best guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVU Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 2700 is still a small sample size. If he isn't beating the closer, it has to be luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Have you given any consideration to Hurry Up & Post's tennis record? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inkwell77 Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Is he betting right before the match starts? Tough to beat the closing number if you are betting at the close...... unless you are betting enough to move the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 the guy has a decent following and he does move the line. he sent me one pick before he played it and it moved. i think that accounts for the 0% CLV, is the movement he creates on these picks Hi!! Haase to beat Medvedev at 5.48 at Pinny. Will send it in some seconds and it closed at 4.15 so he is moving the line but I think that is where he getting to zero against the margin with that movement. man this is strange, I have never seen someone do this. I say survivorship bias its the only reasonable explanation for a guy not creating a line or modeling. just picking winners and this bet here he made the day before the game the bet was on feb6 and the match was feb7, I dont really remember the time or even know enough to know the limits. HUAD is just throwing darts, he knows it we know it and it is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 2700 is still a small sample size. If he isn't beating the closer, it has to be luck what are the chances he is lucky after 2700 bets, like one out of 10 accounts after 2700 will by survivorship bias be positive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 If you handicap, you do not need to make a line. How do you know he does not have CLV? He is posting his picks after he bets them and the line has moved? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 what are the chances he is lucky after 2700 bets, like one out of 10 accounts after 2700 will by survivorship bias be positive?1 out of 10? That would be something in the 1000s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTiger Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 what are the chances he is lucky after 2700 bets, like one out of 10 accounts after 2700 will by survivorship bias be positive? Use a binomial calculator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Is the guy trying to sell picks? Or is he just posting twitter picks? Is he posting what he bet or posting what he is recommending at available lines? Is he claiming a record or is someone keeping a record and saying he has no CLV? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Is the guy trying to sell picks? Or is he just posting twitter picks? Is he posting what he bet or posting what he is recommending at available lines? Is he claiming a record or is someone keeping a record and saying he has no CLV?Ask him yourself....it’s deez from across the street Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Ask him yourself....it’s deez from across the streetWho is Deez? Deez Nuts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Dammit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 the record is legit, I compared the bets to the closing line on all of them , he is at approximately 0% CLV against the margin. its not made up its real Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 out of 10? That would be something in the 1000s. of course not, LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 If you handicap, you do not need to make a line. How do you know he does not have CLV? He is posting his picks after he bets them and the line has moved? if you dont have a line, how do you know when to bet? say you like the BRuins to win, you bet them if its +180 all the way to -400? I dont understand how you can handicap and not have a line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 if you dont have a line, how do you know when to bet? say you like the BRuins to win, you bet them if its +180 all the way to -400? I dont understand how you can handicap and not have a lineIf you do not know +180 is a good bet without a line, you are not going to win anyway if you are handicapping. Handicapping is intuition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Imagine a person handicapping and then having to look up their numbers to see if they have a good bet. That is not how handicapping works. They might drill down on some marginal bets but those will probably have little value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 tell me what you do here 2 scenarios because I still understand it I like the Yankees to win by handicapping Scenario 1they are -290 Scenario 2they are -120 do you bet them in both, what does handicapping mean, I maybe dont know what that is exactly?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 tell me what you do here 2 scenarios because I still understand it I like the Yankees to win by handicapping Scenario 1they are -290 Scenario 2they are -120 do you bet them in both, what does handicapping mean, I maybe dont know what that is exactly??It depends on your confidence in the Yankees for that particular game obviously. Do you think Trump is going to get re-elected? What odds would you bet? That is handicapping. You cannot put a number to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 I would have to have a number via model or something to know what is fair for him to get reelected if I had -120 he would and it was +110 I would bet itif it was -150 I would not bet it, would you? how do you determine if the bet is a coin toss or a positive edge if you dont have a number? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Six Ghosts Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 I would have to have a number via model or something to know what is fair for him to get reelected if I had -120 he would and it was +110 I would bet itif it was -150 I would not bet it, would you? how do you determine if the bet is a coin toss or a positive edge if you dont have a number?You don't need a number. You have a rough idea in your head of what the game ought to be. Some people will go to the trouble of actually making a power rating although I doubt it does them any good since it is only based on opinion. If someone is handicapping and they bet a game, they generally think the line is off by a fair amount. They might not be even able to say by how much but they know they will take or lay the points. I can make a Top 25 better than the AP poll. I don't need any numbers to do that. The line is the wisdom of the crowd. Some members of the crowd have a lot more wisdom than others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 I know I sound stupid but I just dont get it. How can you know if a game is a coin flip or value if you dont have a number can you elaborate more or explain to me what handicapping actually is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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