tailsyoulose Posted February 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Bloomy Made the debate: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/bloomberg-qualifies-for-next-democratic-debate.html?__source=newsletter%7Cmorningsquawk im sure those moderators will be paid very well for the softball questions they are going to spoon feed him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 I just heard a Bloomy commercial on Chicago radio with Obama saying how he liked working with Bloomy. Sorry Biden, there is a lovely parting gift to the left on your way out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 im sure those moderators will be paid very well for the softball questions they are going to spoon feed him. As we've seen in prior debates, the candidates can steer their responses wherever they want, no matter the original questions. However I'm fairly certain Bloomberg will be hammered, both by the moderators Who is moderating the debate: "NBC Nightly News" and "Dateline NBC" anchor Lester Holt; "Meet the Press" moderator and NBC News political director Chuck Todd; NBC News chief White House correspondent and host of "MSNBC Live" Hallie Jackson; Noticias Telemundo senior correspondent Vanessa Hauc; and Jon Ralston, of The Nevada Independent, are co-hosting the debate.(MSNBC, who has been non stop destroying Bloomy whenever I watch, and NBC) and the other candidates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 I just heard a Bloomy commercial on Chicago radio with Obama saying how he liked working with Bloomy. Sorry Biden, there is a lovely parting gift to the left on your way out.You should see the TV commercials. If one didn't know, they'd think Bloomy was his VP instead of Biden. It is funny how the D candidates are so desperate to align themselves with Obama. He's gonna endorse, and strongly work for, whoever it is, but he ain't gonna do it before the nominee is decided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 The commercials on a loop will make a viewer,/casual voter type think O strongly endorses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 You should see the TV commercials. If one didn't know, they'd think Bloomy was his VP instead of Biden. It is funny how the D candidates are so desperate to align themselves with Obama. He's gonna endorse, and strongly work for, whoever it is, but he ain't gonna do it before the nominee is decided.I get South Bend TV and we were getting the anti -Pete commercials nonstop. One of the main industries in the South Bend area is RVs. They took a big hit during bush2 and Obama. It’s come back a lot, but I’m sensing another slowdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Bernie up by 19 pts in nevada in new poll today, biden in 3rd, what happened to the culinary union, they were going to assure a biden win(because they're real powerful)? Never listen to the media spin, that's the lesson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Bernie up by 19 pts in nevada in new poll today, biden in 3rd, what happened to the culinary union, they were going to assure a biden win(because they're real powerful)? Never listen to the media spin, that's the lesson.They can get plenty of illegals to bus tables and make salad. Unfortunately for them it’s not a real powerful union. Now a trade union would have more pull. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted February 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Bernie up by 19 pts in nevada in new poll today, biden in 3rd, what happened to the culinary union, they were going to assure a biden win(because they're real powerful)? Never listen to the media spin, that's the lesson. fake news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Bernie up by 19 pts in nevada in new poll today, biden in 3rd, what happened to the culinary union, they were going to assure a biden win(because they're real powerful)? Never listen to the media spin, that's the lesson.I was wrong about Nevada, Biden isn't 3rd. he's 4th. i expect him to drop out after super tuesday, so he's got 2 more weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Small Scalps available for Nevada and SC. Bookmaker, 5Dimes, Heritage. I love this shit. It adds up and I wind up having lots of action with no risk, and works out kind of like a book to book transfer. Of course travesties come up like the Iowa caucus and you have to wait for your money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 It's on: Elizabeth Warren @ewarren · 4h It’s a shame Mike Bloomberg can buy his way into the debate. But at least now primary voters curious about how each candidate will take on Donald Trump can get a live demonstration of how we each take on an egomaniac billionaire. Quote Tweet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 It's on: Elizabeth Warren @ewarren·4h It’s a shame Mike Bloomberg can buy his way into the debate. But at least now primary voters curious about how each candidate will take on Donald Trump can get a live demonstration of how we each take on an egomaniac billionaire.Quote Tweet Do you think that they'll all be looking to attack him directly? I can see Warren/Bernie going at him---especially since that fires up their progressive base---but think Pete/BIden/Amy will only indirectly attack him if they do, as not only would Pete/Amy possibly be VP candidates for him, but they have a long future ahead, where his $$$ can certainly help 'em. So no reason to upset him directly if they can help it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted February 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 buying m. obama at 200-1, plus a little sherrod brown and john kerry at 1000-1 each. very cheap, want to have a 50-100k position on each, just to cover my ass with the all the most likely compromise candidates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 buying m. obama at 200-1, plus a little sherrod brown and john kerry at 1000-1 each. HUH???You think those are +EV wagers?Seems like a much longer reach than 200-1 for Obama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted February 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 HUH???You think those are +EV wagers? yes in a contested convention obama would be the partys first choice. would only be a question if she agrees to. if you put the odds of a second ballot at 25% (a lowball) then anything becomes possible. the fact shed be the #1 choice for dem establishment means she should be 1% or so right now. hillary is 30-1 (with her only shot being a contested convention). meanwhile m obama is 200-1, and would be 1000x preferred by dem establishment? nah, those prices are way out of whack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Ok, thanks for your thoughts. Thoughts on Bloomberg NOT winning? ........from a betting standpoint Will hang up and listen, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted February 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Ok, thanks for your thoughts. Thoughts on Bloomberg NOT winning? ........from a betting standpoint Will hang up and listen, thanks. this one has me completely stumped. ive been wrong about bloomberg getting traction, but i am a very hesitant to short him. gun to my head, i sell him, but just dont feel good about it. if he gets the nom, its overwhelmingly in a contested convention where he either has a delegate lead, or is second to bernie, with bernie having at least a couple hundred delegates too few. this estimate makes sense in my mind, assuming a biden collapse (where i am buying the dip because i dont believe it), and giving bloomy a huge benefit of the doubt because of that: .3(odds of contested convention)*.25(odds bloomy gets it at convention given contested + all other possible circumstances) + .7(odds of no contested convention)*.2(odds bloomy wins outright given no contested convention) = 21.5%. but im just not certain enough about it, and prefer to just buy biden at long odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Great insight, thanks again. Don't be a stranger in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 New SC poll shows that Bidens lead there is gone - poof, he's now tied with bernie, steyer is right at his heels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 New SC poll shows that Bidens lead there is gone - poof, he's now tied with bernie, steyer is right at his heels.Steyer is underrated by DEM VOTERS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 New SC poll shows that Bidens lead there is gone - poof, he's now tied with bernie, steyer is right at his heels.Which means if Bernie takes SC, this is all but wrapped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Bernie -124 for SC? This is OVER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 114 dem nod -1150 NV -124 SC -530 Ca -210 TX ,-133 NC -223 Mass It's about time to grab 360 Pres odds. No?? Because this is about to be over really fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Bernie -124 for SC? This is OVER.That line inflated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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