RaiseThese Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 Odds for reference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 Here's something that I think will be a winning state betting strategy. Take the dog in every state where the dog is less than +200. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 #################### Background - things to know before betting sate markets! ###################### The early vote process for Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada are somewhat similar. Ballot applications are sent in mass to all registered voters, and to vote early you return the application, they mail you a ballot, then you mail it back. Meanwhile, FL and NC are similar processes. You have to initiate the ballot request (no applications are mailed by default). Then you get a ballot and send it in. The extra initiation process means you'll see a bigger skew toward dems in the early vote (which is strongly confirmed in the early numbers). PA is a bit of an oddball - you can vote early by requesting an absentee ballot and dropping it off all at the same time. This is somewhat like an early voting polling station, which favors Dem early vote, but specifically the early vote in urban centers, where population is dense (a huge percent of the current votes are from Pittsburgh and Philly). This makes for a dynamic where you can better compare these groups of states between themselves - but its much harder to compare numbers for NC and MI, for example. #################### Some thoughts, bets and leans... ###################### The difference between MI and WI versus AZ and NV is a much higher turnout of 65+ in the sun belt. These voters voted Trump by decent margins in NV and AZ in 2016, but so far the overall lean in these states is toward Biden. This could be just an artifact where older Dem voters are skewed toward the early vote, but I'm thinking it is reflecting older voters going bluer this year. In MI and WI, the early vote is still senior-heavy, just not as much as in the sun belt. Seniors in MI and WI went for Trump as well. However, the D/R split is pretty even there (statewide) at the moment. I've also done a pretty thorough county-by-county analysis - it's trending very tight. and overall pretty close to 2016 so far. Im watching Macomb county in MI and Kenosha in WI very closely right now. I'd still bet Trump in MI and WI, but wouldn't touch AZ and NV either way. If anything, I'd take Biden in AZ at -150 or so. Still waiting for some updates in FL, NC, and PA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 The one-stop absentee process in PA may well make the difference in a tight race, and it will be very interesting to see if certain state-based rules favored one party's demographic over the other. Biden may overperform in PA and Trump may retain the rust belt, partially because of the voting process differences. I think both parties will learn some tough lessons from this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 BETTING: Trump to win GA at -130. Voting process similar to NC. Early numbers there look very, very good at the moment for Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 In GA, there's virtually no bias at all in the early vote toward dems. 56/44 toward women. And still neck and neck. Trump should win GA easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 BETTING: Trump to win TX at -260. I'd take it at -350 too. Massive overrepresentation of urban areas, and still looks like a VERY big R lead. I hate betting big favorites, but this is worth the juice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 BETTING: Biden to win CA at -3300. 28k to win 840. Free money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 I should note - all my bets are for Dem/Rep party to win state, not Trump/Biden. So if something truly stupid happens in next two weeks, bets will still stand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaiseThese Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 updated odds...solid move towards Trump in MI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 The early numbers are in enough to call Texas with HIGH certainty IMO. Trump to win TX there is an incredibly good bet. You're getting Mayweather over McGregor at -300 there. Worth the juice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Looking across comparable early numbers and states, MN looks far, far bluer than NC. Both states could go one way or the other, but the early vote definitely shows that the difference in odds are justified. Would be damn near impossible for MN to go red and NC to go blue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Biden looks good in NV. I'd say he's on pace to win by about 4 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Personally I don't see Trump winning Michigan. I don't get Mich TV, but there are a lot of Biden commercials on south bend channels that are aimed to us in Mich. I would say they run 10/1. My area has Upton running for HOR, hes been a lock for years. If he struggles this time, that would not be good for Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 I like Trump to win Mich a lot more than PA, NV, and slightly more than WI. I like Biden a lot in PA right now. Erie county looks really good for him. I had a bit on Trump there from months ago at a number that is underwater, but I'm betting Biden in PA at the moment to try to recover some of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Lackawanna county in PA also looks insanely good for Biden. Lancaster and Northampton in PA look - at best - similar to 2016 for Trump, and at worst way, way worse for him. I'm pretty sure PA will go blue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 46 minutes ago, FairWarning said: Personally I don't see Trump winning Michigan. I don't get Mich TV, but there are a lot of Biden commercials on south bend channels that are aimed to us in Mich. I would say they run 10/1. My area has Upton running for HOR, hes been a lock for years. If he struggles this time, that would not be good for Trump. ZERO chance that Trump wins MI. None. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, El Chapo2017 said: ZERO chance that Trump wins MI. None. Thanks for chiming in, retard. No shade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Some links Ralston has great info for NV - this is an excellent twitter source for Nevadas early vote: Ralston twitter This site has great early return info: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html This site has breakdowns for early in-person vs mail in: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html NYT 2016 data for county comparisons: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/pennsylvania Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, tailsyoulose said: Thanks for chiming in, retard. No shade. What? Do you actually think that Trump can win Michigan? If so, you are a Clueless Fukk with no brains at all... Anybody who thinks that Trump has a prayer in Michigan should just kill themselves because they are an ignorant POS with no brain. It would be a miracle if trump comes within 5 points of Biden, you stupid fukk. Totally LMAO at any mindless imbecile who thinks that Trump has a prayer in Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Trump = Zero Chance in Nevada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 So far Dems have a 26k lead in Clark county (Las Vegas). After early voting in 2016, Dems led Clark by 75k votes. With much more early voting this year, Biden will need an early vote lead of far more than 75k by election day. Keep your eyes on this number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, tailsyoulose said: So far Dems have a 26k lead in Clark county (Las Vegas). After early voting in 2016, Dems led Clark by 75k votes. With much more early voting this year, Biden will need an early vote lead of far more than 75k by election day. Keep your eyes on this number. Will all those dems in NV, many of whom are latino laid off casino workers, vote the same as they did in 2016? That is the question, hispanics dont like socialism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, mikeman said: Will all those dems in NV, many of whom are latino laid off casino workers, vote the same as they did in 2016? That is the question, hispanics dont like socialism. Yes, Clark and Washoe will be a huge indicator of how sun belt and latino voters will be voting. After a few days of early votes, you will begin to see some trends. If it breaks in a clear direction one way or the other, there will be huge value on some of these bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, tailsyoulose said: Yes, Clark and Washoe will be a huge indicator of how sun belt and latino voters will be voting. After a few days of early votes, you will begin to see some trends. If it breaks in a clear direction one way or the other, there will be huge value on some of these bets. But we wont find out how they voted till election day, that's my point. Hispanic union casino workers, registered as dems, might not vote for biden in the same % they did for hillary, not just might but prob wont as polls indicate trump has gained with hispanics generally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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