hustledouble Posted September 15, 2014 Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Who here live bets frequently? Ideally, I guess, you want to have 3 to 5 books at your disposal to do this. But at that point, you're can essentially be "trading". I've lost money overall on the NFL in the first two weeks. But I have made money on all my live positions in NFL these two weeks, excluding New Orleans which I picked up at pk +120 today and let ride with Cleveland +185 on the table. Depending on which books you use, there were either 9 or 10 games with live arbitrage situations in the NFL today. This essentially means in about 75% of the games today there were opportunities to purchase money lines on each side with +$. The number was similar in week one. Even if you're not into/don't like arbitrage there's plenty of opportunity with basic math. There are several free win expectancy calculators available (such as FanGraphs for MLB, Advanced Football Analytics, etc.) which can pick off win expectancy differences. Last night in a college game there was a 3 minute sequence in which a winning team was priced at a 73% win expectancy when their true number was 89%. Totals are often being hot-shot live as pure "points scored x whatever time is left" formula, and it doesn't take much to figure out why it's a mistake to be pricing totals based on the exact same thing happening for the duration of the game. Live betting sort of depends both on your ability to quickly sort through a lot of statistical information and do some quick math in your head with the more "art"-type ability to understand the flow of a game and the match-ups you're seeing. If I was better at it, I'd try to do it exclusively. There is a big window there, I think, that the books will close sooner than later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted September 15, 2014 Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Live betting is great. And if you're patient, many times you can get a better line than the original game line. Unlike obscure college basketball games, most books have live action on all NFL games. I've gotten teams at EV+ many times live that were favored a TD or so. Can't beat that with a stick. There's just a discipline involved to watch and wait. And strike like a cobra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Hoffa Posted September 15, 2014 Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Some of us have been live betting since hustle was in knee pants. Big props on stating the obvious. Did the big, bad kitty scare you in running to JK because your little tweeter game stopped working? Douche... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 15, 2014 Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Tremendous option for punters worldwide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDaddy Posted September 15, 2014 Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Tremendous option for punters worldwide yes it is but lets not fool people into thinking it's that easy to win. its not. Jimmy is a veteran live game bettor i believe he has a edge but a newbie might get beat up at first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hustledouble Posted September 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Some of us have been live betting since hustle was in knee pants. Big props on stating the obvious. Did the big, bad kitty scare you in running to JK because your little tweeter game stopped working? Douche... I never said anything to JK about that guy, that was all him. I did ask King/boat to delete two posts here where he'd posted personal information about my friend (because he thought it was me). That's not fair to someone who isn't even registered on any of the forums. Maybe I am not the bad guy here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hustledouble Posted September 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 yes it is but lets not fool people into thinking it's that easy to win. its not. Jimmy is a veteran live game bettor i believe he has a edge but a newbie might get beat up at first. Certainly not "easy". But what in this is really easy, right? But it is exploitable if you're good at it and so far as it comes to the NFL certainly more edge available than betting mid-week sides and totals or something. The most trouble for live bettors is chasing, I'd guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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